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lixuelai

macrumors 6502a
Oct 29, 2008
957
327
Manufactured goods are so cheap in China because they have so much cheap manpower to throw at it. As well as less-stated things like questionable working conditions, questionable respect of IP, and if you've ever purchased anything electronic off Amazon lately, definitely a lot of questionable quality.

I'm interested where automated 3-D printing and C&C machines come for the near future. Manufacturing jobs may come back, they may pay extremely well, but that may only be because it'll be less people operating complicated machinery to do all this. But even a few jobs here and there and a higher cost may be worth it for other reasons.

It's maybe a bit of a long-term stretch. But I'm starting to wonder if this shouldn't be a national security threat. I'm watching what's happening in Hong Kong, and in China in general with the "social credit" system, and I'm already wondering if we shouldn't be spending what it costs so that all of our electronic based infrastructure is not seemingly sourced entirely from China. I already would refuse to purchase anything from Huawei. Do I trust Lenovo? To what degree will Silicon Valley allow China to twist arms to allow backdoors in their systems? (I'm looking at you, too, Canonical…)

Its funny that when I visit China I hear the same thing except replacing Huawei with Apple and Lenovo with Dell.

Also as an expat in HK it is interesting to see the different news and people’s reaction to them. Often times there seems to be a universal lack of critical thinking.
 

Dozer_Zaibatsu

macrumors 6502
Oct 10, 2006
327
352
North America
Its funny that when I visit China I hear the same thing except replacing Huawei with Apple and Lenovo with Dell.

Also as an expat in HK it is interesting to see the different news and people’s reaction to them. Often times there seems to be a universal lack of critical thinking.

Are you suggesting I'm not thinking critically in thinking that China is a threat to the US and allied western countries?
 

bgraham

macrumors regular
Jun 23, 2015
184
888
United Kingdom
More demand for an existing labor supply raises the price (wages) of said labor. Assuming you took Econ 101 recently, maybe they’re teaching it in Econ 102 right now. Either that or they’re no longer teaching conventional basic Econ which would help explain why so many recent college graduates now believe socialism works.

Indeed it does. However, the imposition of a tariff or a company being forced to manufacture in the US due to the threat of tariffs (assuming it is less profitable for said company) increases the cost of those products, which reduces real wages. It also 'uses up' those workers that could be put to use in other sectors of the economy in which the US has a comparative advantage. Overall, the US (and the world) is poorer, despite a few US workers being better off.

This has nothing to do with socialism at all. Tariffs are in effect a socialist policy, certainly not a capitalist one.
 

Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
8,857
11,370
Pop quiz: at what point in this chart was Trump elected?

View attachment 862585

For those playing at home, here's the answer key:

1569339867671.png

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CE16OV

It doesn't help that Obama removed the people not actively looking for work while being unemployed from the unemployment number, so please spare me. It looks like unemployment goes up during election years and the year prior though and if you correlate the data to things such as 9/11, the housing market crashed (Caused by people not being able to afford their mortgage but lenders still lending), etc., you get a better picture.

Here's a more accurate chart WITH SOURCE:
The comment I was responding was that there are more jobs coming back to the US and that the job market was skyrocketing. The data I showed was the number of people working and I don't see any change in the trend since 2011.

I'm not sure you understand the different metrics of the labor market. The data you included isn't the employment level, but the unemployment rate. It comes from the same source as the data I provided: the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Current Population Survey. FRED brings many sources of data together through a common interface that makes it easier to interact with and plot multiple series together, etc, so that's how I usually graph it.

Obama didn't remove anyone, or change any definitions. The unemployment rate that is typically reported is the one that you provided a plot of: U3. The definition of U3 is people who have looked for a job in the past 4 weeks but aren't currently working, and that definition hasn't changed. U3 was never meant as a "misery index", it's meant as an estimate the tightness of the labor market.

You can learn more about how these are measured here:
https://www.bls.gov/opub/hom/cps/pdf/cps.pdf
and the various ways they're reported is outlined pretty well here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Unemployment#United_States_Bureau_of_Labor_statistics

I'm not sure where the correlations are that you're describing. 2012 and 2016 were election years and unemployment didn't go up. If the data is correlated with 9/11, then somehow the labor market knew 9/11 was coming months before it happened. The best correlation I see is with the underlying economic conditions-- when we're in a recession (caused by the dot com bust, the housing crisis, etc) unemployment goes up, when we're not it goes down:

1569349022451.png


If you prefer using the unemployment rate, or the U6 rate for that matter, to using the employment level, I can make the same point.

Pop quiz: at what point in this chart was Trump elected:

1569349295754.png


The conclusion remains the same-- nothing in the labor market has skyrocketed.
 

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Analog Kid

macrumors G3
Mar 4, 2003
8,857
11,370
Job growth has actually slowed since Individual-1 took office.

It'd be nice if we could get back to the job creation numbers of the latter Obama years.

While narrowly true (looking at 2 or 3 years before and after Jan 2017), it hasn't fallen off a cliff either...

1569370386703.png
 

mozumder

macrumors 65816
Mar 9, 2009
1,283
4,416
atleast its a start. May be in future they will bring back all production to US.

It would be a VERY bad sign if those jobs come back to the US, as that means our labor force is in equal footing with a Chinese laborer.

We spend thousands of dollars a year on public education to teach Americans things like calculus and history and literature so they DON'T have to work manual labor jobs in factories like oxen.
 

grad

macrumors 6502
Jun 2, 2014
380
466
Maybe change the "Mac Community" subforum into "Mac US Community" ? As someone who is not a US citizen (nor a Chinese one), I find it disturbing the way people here use "we".
 

Dozer_Zaibatsu

macrumors 6502
Oct 10, 2006
327
352
North America
Well, the question should really be: “does trade interdependence increase or decrease that threat”.

I have a degree in International Relations, and my whole time at University I was a free-trade kid, slingin' Hayek and Friedman like they were going out of style. I wrote numerous papers with "interdependence" in the title, explaining whole-heartedly why it was a good thing which would reduce conflict and war.

Been there, done that, bought the original cast album and t-shirt. I still believe in free trade with a couple of caveats. One, it depends upon your partners behaving in good faith. Second, while it can reduce war by making the cost of war much greater than what can be achieved, it doesn't necessarily reduce conflict by other means if the first caveat isn't respected.

Per [Edit: comment was by Vjosullivan, above] about whether it's proved that Chinese manufactured goods have had secret backdoors, etc: that's a Red Herring to my argument. It is certainly a fact that almost all attempts at hacking big institutions from around the world seem to come aggressively from one country. That country also has been caught red handed multiple times attempting usual spycraft of smuggling IP and outright attacking and stealing government documents from the US. It's all in the usual security reports, and it's not heavily publicized, because the U.S. State Department (and Allies) do not need the headache of pushing this to the forefront of a world with more "kinetic" bad actors.

In my observation, China is the epitome of a mature fascist state. (I'm using the academic definition here of "fascism," not making Nazi allusions.) I'm saying like the theories of Mussolini, and more like versions of Peronism or even DeGaullism: aggressive nationalism tinged with racism in which one party acts as the authority of tying the state in with entities of business and private ownership.

There is no information sector in China like our own Silicon Valley which badmouths the "militarism" of their own country and refuses to work with it. There is no toleration for private corporations who demand privacy and civil rights on behalf of their customers. Every private entity has Party officials on its board, per law, and no press is allowed to say that this is a bad thing. Those who attempt to say it, if not outright shut down, are being oppressed in more subtle ways enabled by technology. (Social Credit, etc.)

Of course you find people in China who badmouth or distrust Apple and Dell, or more importantly say out loud for others to hear — those are American companies. Nobody in China is going to be punished for distrusting or badmouthing America. In fact, it's encouraged. The fact that they do not say the same thing about Huewei proves my point about the creepy totalitarianism of a mature fascist state.

The Chinese has asserted it's right several times to have back door access to its citizens online activities. It asserts a right to track people's IP and MAC addresses. Linus Torvalds can complain outright about government entities asking him to provide backdoors to his OS and tout his outright refusal to do so.

So whether all our Huewei devices will wake up in the middle of the night and steal our nuclear codes — or at least more realistically and subtly — whether our dependence on Chinese fabrication means we'll be totally at the mercy of China in any crisis, it matters little to people just on the short-term consumer level.

I am not suggesting Silicon Valley is the "good guy" here, either. They're the opportunist and hypocritical guy, in fact. They assist China in their technological efforts, speaking seemingly gracefully about free trade while watching their own bottom lines.

There has always been major electronics fabrication in Mexico in Zona Metropolitana de Tijuana since the dawn of electronics manufacturing. But Mexico's economy has stagnated because maybe a lot of what should have been built there over the last 20 years has been built in China for shortsighted reasons.

It's hard to suggest this as a political priority. Because it's not popular. I'm saying, well, if we invest more in forcing public schools to properly teach machine tooling, and after some other heavy investment, we'll have a modicum of net jobs added to the economy after spending a few billion on newer automation with 3D fabrication and C&C machines, and still with new electronics probably costing more. That's not going to be hugely popular. But I think it's right.

But I'll stand by this. Right now I do not believe it is possible to micro manufacture -- much less mass manufacture -- a computer or a phone without components built under the eye of the Chinese Communist Party. I believe the USA, the EU, AnZac, Japan, Taiwain, etc., will look back and regret that this was allowed to happen.
 
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lixuelai

macrumors 6502a
Oct 29, 2008
957
327
I have a degree in International Relations, and my whole time at University I was a free-trade kid, slingin' Hayek and Friedman like they were going out of style. I wrote numerous papers with "interdependence" in the title, explaining whole-heartedly why it was a good thing which would reduce conflict and war.
...

Anyone on the internet can claim any number of things. I read through your post though to respect the time you put in writing it. Your opinion is pretty mainstream American and there are plenty of people in the world that doesn't buy into it, as is evident from our success or lack of so far in getting other countries to act in a concerted manner in regards to China.

Anyway I suggest you try to argue the opposite of what you believe in. It is a good benchmark of how well you know the topic and arguably more intellectually stimulating. For example you only talk about U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing, how about vice versa. You also mention the claims of Chinese espionage, how would you address the claims of American espionage ala Snowden.
 

Dozer_Zaibatsu

macrumors 6502
Oct 10, 2006
327
352
North America
Anyone on the internet can claim any number of things. I read through your post though to respect the time you put in writing it. Your opinion is pretty mainstream American and there are plenty of people in the world that doesn't buy into it, as is evident from our success or lack of so far in getting other countries to act in a concerted manner in regards to China.

Anyway I suggest you try to argue the opposite of what you believe in. It is a good benchmark of how well you know the topic and arguably more intellectually stimulating. For example you only talk about U.S. dependence on Chinese manufacturing, how about vice versa. You also mention the claims of Chinese espionage, how would you address the claims of American espionage ala Snowden.

Well… a degree in International Relations wouldn't be that impressive, I would think? Universities kind of crank them out. It's not until I really got into IT that I found much gainful employment.

I would say my perspective is precisely that I am considering exactly what other people in the world think of American entities. I think most Americans are shocked at casual anti-Americanism because they haven't encountered it.

I don't want to keep going into tangents. I think the takeaway is that Americans have taken it for granted that entities like Apple and Microsoft are essentially American. Any of us should stop and consider why that is the case, and what could happen in the near future which could result in that not being the case? And consider the consequences.

Certainly even our allies in the EU don't forget it, and they don't like being dominated by American companies, either. It's interesting that the Japanese and Koreans are absolutely unashamedly nationalist in their loyalty for home-country brands.

On Snowden, all I can think of the perspective I gained from Russians. When Russians see Putin shirtless and wrestling a tiger, they shrug and say, "yeah, it's politicians, they all do that phony **** where they prop themselves up." They think Americans are delusional to think their politics are any more pristine than Putinism. They'll point to American corruption and say "you Americans think you're all about 'freedom,' but you have just as much corruption, you're just self delusional about it." There's more than a little truth in that.

The biggest difference in all of this is that we do have large corporate entities which have an entirely antagonistic relationship with the government. In other places, in other times, that would simply not be tolerated by the powers that be.
 

R.P.G

macrumors regular
Oct 24, 2016
197
167
Somewhere
It would be a VERY bad sign if those jobs come back to the US, as that means our labor force is in equal footing with a Chinese laborer.

We spend thousands of dollars a year on public education to teach Americans things like calculus and history and literature so they DON'T have to work manual labor jobs in factories like oxen.
Lol..you think blue collar jobs are bad??? Not everyone wants a rat race job. Some wants life.
 

mozumder

macrumors 65816
Mar 9, 2009
1,283
4,416
Lol..you think blue collar jobs are bad??? Not everyone wants a rat race job. Some wants life.

Yah America doesn't want to pay extra to fund your lifestyle because you don't want to work the rat race.

Work the rat race, or get left out. We aren't your babysitters.

That's life.
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
Thanks Don! ;)
[automerge]1569283937[/automerge]


Actually it is. Clean manufacturing like Tesla and others, not the old dirty sweatshops of China and India.
Treat people with dignity and respect, and have robots do the work where it makes sense. And people design, build and program robots. There's no downside.
I would say that half of those old dirty sweatshops probably fork out low end products but you would be surprised to see some of those so called sweatshops forking out some amazing products. I visited many so called sweatshop manufacturers over the years and probably 7 over this last week alone. The boss likes American products. Uses an iPhone and drives a Tesla P100. This sweatshop looking place meets many strict conditions that German and Japanese governments require for lighting manufacturers. When I saw the finished products I was quite amazed. The old saying not to judge a book by its cover applies half the time in China ;)

Tesla will find a lot of talent in China just like Apple did.

IMG_20191014_151112.jpg IMG_20191014_150755.jpg IMG_20191014_111115.jpg
 
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