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stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
Easy there, trigger.

I’m not a Trump voter, supporter or Republican.

But you might want to rethink your opinion. This idea of things being set in stone forever = fiction. Change is inevitable.

China’s had an unfair advantage for a long time, and been severely lopsided imposing tariffs on us. That was going to eventually change, and like any change, there isn’t a perfect, clean solution.

If you’re a Democrat, you should probably be happy it’s Trump doing this, rather than kicking it down the road and potentially being a future D president’s problem. There’s plenty to not like Trump about, but this is a stupid and irrational position.

How do you define unfair advantage?
 

hellopupy

macrumors 6502
Sep 8, 2016
334
359
Los Angeles
Of course it’s a fraud. Drumpf is a populist of the elites, he doesn’t give a sh*t about the working class beyond the fact that he needs them to get re-elected to then change the constitution and install his family dynasty for good in power.

LOL what psychotic conspiracy websites have you been visiting?

Changing the constitution requires a constitutional convention. That isn't happening for Trump to erase presidential term limits.

I know you're not American but before making wild accusations about our Constitution, learn how it works first.
[doublepost=1565753521][/doublepost]A lot o
Easy there, trigger.

I’m not a Trump voter, supporter or Republican.

But you might want to rethink your opinion. This idea of things being set in stone forever = fiction. Change is inevitable.

China’s had an unfair advantage for a long time, and been severely lopsided imposing tariffs on us. That was going to eventually change, and like any change, there isn’t a perfect, clean solution.

If you’re a Democrat, you should probably be happy it’s Trump doing this, rather than kicking it down the road and potentially being a future D president’s problem. There’s plenty to not like Trump about, but this is a stupid and irrational position.

A lot of the same people complaining about the deferral of tariffs will also complain when the tariffs go into place. This is called Trump Derangement Syndrome where you aren't able to see both sides of the issue, due to being triggered by a personality.
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
LOL what psychotic conspiracy websites have you been visiting?

Changing the constitution requires a constitutional convention. That isn't happening for Trump to erase presidential term limits.

I know you're not American but before making wild accusations about our Constitution, learn how it works first.
[doublepost=1565753521][/doublepost]A lot o


A lot of the same people complaining about the deferral of tariffs will also complain when the tariffs go into place. This is called Trump Derangement Syndrome where you aren't able to see both sides of the issue, due to being triggered by a personality.

Does this website fall into the conspiracy websites? Does what Trump said also fall into the conspiracy category..?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2019/05/06/donald-trump-presidential-term-limit/amp/
 
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supercoolmanchu

macrumors 6502
Mar 5, 2012
355
623
Hollywood
A lot of the same people complaining about the deferral of tariffs will also complain when the tariffs go into place. This is called Trump Derangement Syndrome where you aren't able to see both sides of the issue, due to being triggered by a personality.

I live in Hollywood, and work in the entertainment industry. Ground zero for Trump derangement and general relative illiteracy.

A place so passionate in defense of smashing the Trump star on the wall of fame, that they totally ignore (for decades) the dying junkies and piles of human waste less than 50ft away from their ‘important’ political statement.
 

pshufd

macrumors G3
Oct 24, 2013
9,942
14,437
New Hampshire
They're $203/share premarket as the futures are taking a big dump. Asia was strong last night. Europe got smoked. 10 year is at 1.6% - I can't believe it! I don't know exactly what's causing the big dump in the futures but it has to be related to growth given the 10-year and gold.
 

fathergll

macrumors 68000
Sep 3, 2014
1,788
1,487
China has imposed lopsided tariffs on us for years, they aren't going to drop those by asking nicely.
In fact, that has already been tried. The only ways we can change their minds: increase their costs thru tariffs, or thru wishing.

However. China's corn harvest just collapsed due to massive pest infestation, on the heels of their pork production being decimated.

Left leaning partisan leaners take careful note: Dogmatically holding China to a tariff schedule, when they face imminent natural disaster conditions, is cruel. It would put extreme pressure on them far beyond any US strategic trade goals or strategy. Better swallow your pride, Trump's the good guy here.
[doublepost=1565715380][/doublepost]

So it's ok for China to use tariffs on us?

How would you get them to stop?



China also provides the U.S. with high quality goods at a very low cost. It's not like there is no benefit.

At the end of the day the dollar is the worlds reserve currency but the U.S. needs to be careful because if that ends up not being the case we are truly in trouble. China and Russia have tripled their gold reserves and I would be foolish to think the rest of the world is not looking to dump the dollar as well. They obviously can't now as there are no alternatives still but the dollars status as the worlds reserve currency will be quested hard during the next crash.
 

0388631

Cancelled
Sep 10, 2009
9,669
10,820
Trump Admin backpedaling after they realized their new tariffs were going to hurt the consumer and U.S. economy, particularly with people going back-to-school and the upcoming holidays. And Apple's new iPhone launch next month.

Unfortunately, you cannot bully China into agreeing to a trade deal.
What little I understand about Chinese culture is that they'll self-immolate, in theory, to destroy an enemy of the state. The country as a whole would rather go so into the red to ruin the future for future generations than let the Americans win.
 

pshufd

macrumors G3
Oct 24, 2013
9,942
14,437
New Hampshire
China also provides the U.S. with high quality goods at a very low cost. It's not like there is no benefit.

At the end of the day the dollar is the worlds reserve currency but the U.S. needs to be careful because if that ends up not being the case we are truly in trouble. China and Russia have tripled their gold reserves and I would be foolish to think the rest of the world is not looking to dump the dollar as well. They obviously can't now as there are no alternatives still but the dollars status as the worlds reserve currency will be quested hard during the next crash.

There aren't enough gold supplies to use it as reserves. China and Russia are looking to build cryptocurrencies that are gold-backed but there are problems with the idea as well. The main problem with reserve currencies is that nobody really wants to be the reserve currency. They look at the potential benefits but then they run into the problem that the US does - everyone wants to weaken their own currency so that they can export more and you don't have as much control over that because you're the reserve currency.

Japan gets some of that because they are a safe-haven country - when there is turmoil, there is a flight to the Yen - even when Japan wants a weaker Yen. It's a case of be careful what you wish for.

MacroVoices has a piece on why the Yuan dropped earlier this week. It's the best explanation I've heard. It also explains why China can't dump Treasuries - they use Treasuries as the basis for their internal monetary system. When they sell Treasuries, they have to shrink their monetary base. It also explains their dollar shortage and why the Yuan dropped - basically China has a set of choices, all bad.
[doublepost=1565794493][/doublepost]
What little I understand about Chinese culture is that they'll self-immolate, in theory, to destroy an enemy of the state. The country as a whole would rather go so into the red to ruin the future for future generations than let the Americans win.

That may have been true when everyone was poor. When you have a wealthy population, they will look at their options. China has a lot of problems. You have the wealthy in the East, some better off in the middle and a lot of poor in the west. The middle wants what the east has and the west wants what the middle has. It's really big-time income inequality. I was there in the mid-1980s and the mood was upbeat even though the typical pay was $30/month. Things were improving and that helps the human condition.

When people have a lot and you take it away, people can get very angry.

The scary thing is 1.3 billion angry people.

Louis Gave who lives in Hong Kong did a podcast last night; it's pretty interesting stuff though I haven't listened to the whole thing. I think that he's going to do a few more of them. There's a great MacroVoices podcast on the Yuan devaluation (I may have already mentioned this). The Gave podcast is at that site too.
 

fathergll

macrumors 68000
Sep 3, 2014
1,788
1,487
There aren't enough gold supplies to use it as reserves. China and Russia are looking to build cryptocurrencies that are gold-backed but there are problems with the idea as well. The main problem with reserve currencies is that nobody really wants to be the reserve currency. They look at the potential benefits but then they run into the problem that the US does - everyone wants to weaken their own currency so that they can export more and you don't have as much control over that because you're the reserve currency.

Japan gets some of that because they are a safe-haven country - when there is turmoil, there is a flight to the Yen - even when Japan wants a weaker Yen. It's a case of be careful what you wish for.

MacroVoices has a piece on why the Yuan dropped earlier this week. It's the best explanation I've heard. It also explains why China can't dump Treasuries - they use Treasuries as the basis for their internal monetary system. When they sell Treasuries, they have to shrink their monetary base. It also explains their dollar shortage and why the Yuan dropped - basically China has a set of choices, all bad.


Very true but as you said they are definitely looking outside of the dollar to permissioned blockchain system as others.


I'm still waiting to see any evidence of Brent's Milkshake Theory before I do anything.
 

siddavis

macrumors 6502a
Feb 23, 2009
860
2,836
Does this website fall into the conspiracy websites? Does what Trump said also fall into the conspiracy category..?

https://www.google.com/amp/s/fortune.com/2019/05/06/donald-trump-presidential-term-limit/amp/
Please. Reading that article you linked provides no real evidence that President Trump would extend his stay. Each of the quotations cited were JOKES, but we've gone way beyond being able to see that and can only get triggered. Looking at a smattering of articles (opinion pieces?) by Erin Corbett shows her bias through innuendo and leaving out relevant facts.

hellopupy's point stands that our Constitution very clearly provides limits on who and how the document can be changed. hellopupy is (partially) right that a convention (actually a Convention of States - requiring 2/3s of State Legislatures) OR an amendment proposed either by the Congress with a 2/3s majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate would be required to alter the Constitution. Clearly this is a tall order and for good reason.
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
Please. Reading that article you linked provides no real evidence that President Trump would extend his stay. Each of the quotations cited were JOKES, but we've gone way beyond being able to see that and can only get triggered. Looking at a smattering of articles (opinion pieces?) by Erin Corbett shows her bias through innuendo and leaving out relevant facts.

hellopupy's point stands that our Constitution very clearly provides limits on who and how the document can be changed. hellopupy is (partially) right that a convention (actually a Convention of States - requiring 2/3s of State Legislatures) OR an amendment proposed either by the Congress with a 2/3s majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate would be required to alter the Constitution. Clearly this is a tall order and for good reason.

But it does provide reasonable doubt that Trump would like to see his term extended ;)
 

pshufd

macrumors G3
Oct 24, 2013
9,942
14,437
New Hampshire
Very true but as you said they are definitely looking outside of the dollar to permissioned blockchain system as others.

I'm still waiting to see any evidence of Brent's Milkshake Theory before I do anything.

The blockchain system might work for China/Russia/Iran/North Korea/Venezuela. But would you trust in a store of value that could be turned off at anytime by a politician in China or Russia? For any kind of trade? If you get into a spat with them, they could just turn off your access to your store of value.

It is also possible that these systems are hackable with enough compute power (like the NSA).
 

stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
The blockchain system might work for China/Russia/Iran/North Korea/Venezuela. But would you trust in a store of value that could be turned off at anytime by a politician in China or Russia? For any kind of trade? If you get into a spat with them, they could just turn off your access to your store of value.

It is also possible that these systems are hackable with enough compute power (like the NSA).

This is why CASH will always be King :D On the other hand things are headed towards Blockchain whether we like it or not just like how smartphones/laptops removed user replaceable batteries and smartphones are removing the headphone jack. Governments I think also want to slowly remove cash and introduce their own system where they can keep tab on everyone;)
 

pshufd

macrumors G3
Oct 24, 2013
9,942
14,437
New Hampshire
This is why CASH will always be King :D On the other hand things are headed towards Blockchain whether we like it or not just like how smartphones/laptops removed user replaceable batteries and smartphones are removing the headphone jack. Governments I think also want to slowly remove cash and introduce their own system where they can keep tab on everyone;)

Maybe some governments want to do that.

My simple argument against crypto: what do you do when you have a power failure? What do you do when the network is down? What do you do when payment systems go down? Sometimes it's nice to have cold, hard cash. Or a Red or Green Monsterbox.

Gold-Eagle-Monster-Boxes-600x600.jpg

Monster-Box-of-US-Silver-Eagles-100x100.jpg




We have a local Bitcoin store. It's an interesting place and I spent some time talking to the person running it.
 
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stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
Short lived gains for Apple and market. Dropped almost as quickly as they went up. I had a feeling about those gains yesterday as if I am not mistaken the gains that we saw yesterday from the market popping up were gains made before the news hit the market which made these gains either fake or FED controlled. Look for time news came out for tariffs delay and look for time market spike took place. Something was not right.

14DAFBC3-4D17-48A1-862A-1E90E7E9EBC6.jpeg
 

ravenstar

macrumors 6502
Jan 12, 2005
266
505
What little I understand about Chinese culture is that they'll self-immolate, in theory, to destroy an enemy of the state. The country as a whole would rather go so into the red to ruin the future for future generations than let the Americans win.

I believe you're right, at least as far as the Chinese government is concerned. This is why a trade war based on tariffs can't possibly be won the way Trump is playing it.
 
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stylinexpat

macrumors 68020
Mar 6, 2009
2,107
4,542
I believe you're right, at least as far as the Chinese government is concerned. This is why a trade war based on tariffs can't possibly be won the way Trump is playing it.

It's not just about tariffs though. ;) Tariffs is only a part of the issue that makes the news.

http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/1161456.shtml

https://www.khmertimeskh.com/506332...as-alternative-to-swift-help-flee-the-dollar/

“SWIFT relies on the US dollar to conduct cross-border bankwire transactions, with the exception of transfers between UK and EU banks”, McGregor underscores. “Accordingly by default, the US dollar stays strong since it’s the most widely-traded currency in the world. But Beijing will change the trends with the advent of CIPS, so that the Chinese yuan, not US dollars, will be exchanged directly with India, Indonesia, Thailand, Turkey and Russia, via the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank local currency financing, which started on July 19”.

“It makes good sense, since replacing the US dollar with the yuan in currency exchanges would reduce the time and transaction fees in the process”, the CCTV editor adds.

McGregor elaborates that while the AIIB’s plans to maintain business ties with countries subjected to unilateral sanctions by Washington or Brussels, CIPS comes in handy as it does not need SWIFT to proceed with cross-border transactions. It could also encourage those nations to strengthen their local currencies, especially if their access to the dollar is limited, the Beijing-based journalist concludes.

Having been launched in October 2015, CIPS grew 80 percent in value terms in 2018, according to a Nikkei May 2019 survey, which dubbed the Chinese clearing and settlement services system “a rising challenge to the hegemony of the US dollar”. The survey found that CIPS had processed 26 trillion yuan ($3.77 trillion) of payments in 2018 only. Russian, Turkish, and Venezuelan banks have already jumped on the CIPS bandwagon.

https://www.businesstoday.in/curren...onal-advance-payment-system/story/370260.html
 

0388631

Cancelled
Sep 10, 2009
9,669
10,820
Sure, the Chinese could rebel. But the Chinese also have no problems culling their own, even if it's family.
 

supercoolmanchu

macrumors 6502
Mar 5, 2012
355
623
Hollywood
China also provides the U.S. with high quality goods at a very low cost. It's not like there is no benefit.

At the end of the day the dollar is the worlds reserve currency but the U.S. needs to be careful because if that ends up not being the case we are truly in trouble. China and Russia have tripled their gold reserves and I would be foolish to think the rest of the world is not looking to dump the dollar as well. They obviously can't now as there are no alternatives still but the dollars status as the worlds reserve currency will be quested hard during the next crash.

But by your theory, if wages were higher in China, then tariffs should be lower?

Labor costs in China have risen significantly, but tariffs have remained at a higher rate. Even if you don’t agree on no tariffs, higher tariffs should still be equalized against higher labor costs.

So welcome back to reality, because that’s precisely one of the main reasons the US is now in a ‘trade war’ with China.
[doublepost=1565872900][/doublepost]
I believe you're right, at least as far as the Chinese government is concerned. This is why a trade war based on tariffs can't possibly be won the way Trump is playing it.

Incorrect. The tariff delay, is a way for the Chinese to save face instead of being forced into an impossible position.

Research this concept in Chinese culture and negotiation.
 

Dave00

macrumors 6502a
Dec 2, 2003
883
106
Pittsburgh
Please. Reading that article you linked provides no real evidence that President Trump would extend his stay. Each of the quotations cited were JOKES, but we've gone way beyond being able to see that and can only get triggered. Looking at a smattering of articles (opinion pieces?) by Erin Corbett shows her bias through innuendo and leaving out relevant facts.

hellopupy's point stands that our Constitution very clearly provides limits on who and how the document can be changed. hellopupy is (partially) right that a convention (actually a Convention of States - requiring 2/3s of State Legislatures) OR an amendment proposed either by the Congress with a 2/3s majority vote in both the House of Representatives and the Senate would be required to alter the Constitution. Clearly this is a tall order and for good reason.
Name another president, since ratification of presidential term limits, who has repeatedly "joked" he wouldn't leave at the end of his term.

If you're relying on the Constitution, I've got news for you - the Constitution relies on people in power to do their jobs, and those in power now have shown no inclination to do so. And Trump has shown no interest in the political norms that have allowed for stable government for over two centuries. Tell me, if Trump decides to ignore the results of an election he loses, how is he forced to leave? On whose orders is he physically removed? Doubtless there will be some excuse - he didn't really lose, there was voter fraud or it "wasn't fair" for some other reason. What then? This is why "joking" about violating the Constitution is no laughing matter.
 

ravenstar

macrumors 6502
Jan 12, 2005
266
505
Incorrect. The tariff delay, is a way for the Chinese to save face instead of being forced into an impossible position.

Research this concept in Chinese culture and negotiation.

On what basis are you drawing the conclusion that this is the reason the tariffs were delayed? The Chinese government has shown repeatedly that when threatened with an ultimatum, whether from its people or foreign powers, that it will avoid any response that suggests it is capitulating regardless of the cost to the people. You give Trump far too much credit. In a reasonable world, perhaps delaying tariffs might be a negotiation tactic to offer them an alternative, but I see no evidence in Trump's history to believe that this is any more than a response to the reaction of American businesses to the policy. Nuanced reasoning isn't his style, and perhaps is beyond his ability. I also see no reason to believe the Chinese government won't simply wait him out until the next election. What incentive do they have to give him anything? He'll just come back demanding more, so their best course of action is to give him nothing and let him throw his tantrum.
[doublepost=1565885854][/doublepost]
Name another president, since ratification of presidential term limits, who has repeatedly "joked" he wouldn't leave at the end of his term.

If you're relying on the Constitution, I've got news for you - the Constitution relies on people in power to do their jobs, and those in power now have shown no inclination to do so. And Trump has shown no interest in the political norms that have allowed for stable government for over two centuries. Tell me, if Trump decides to ignore the results of an election he loses, how is he forced to leave? On whose orders is he physically removed? Doubtless there will be some excuse - he didn't really lose, there was voter fraud or it "wasn't fair" for some other reason. What then? This is why "joking" about violating the Constitution is no laughing matter.

There's great peril in trying to predict what Trump will do, but I have wondered if this scenario will play out. My gut feeling right now is that there are still enough reasonable people in the right places to prevent Trump from successfully holding onto office after an election loss. Too many stories have leaked about how his own staff has reigned in his more outlandish wishes. It seems there are still some people who may differ from my ideology, but are nevertheless honorable. The bigger concern is whether he will lose the election. It's not like any particularly strong candidate has appeared to oppose him. Democrats aren't going to get a strong win by pushing outlandish far left ideas. The US needs a leader who is looking to stabilize the country, not push it to ideological extremes.
 

hagar

macrumors 68000
Jan 19, 2008
1,964
4,876
The giant trade deficit with China for over 20 years has transferred the wealth of the middle class Americans to fund the greatest military (largest for sure) as well as a great infrastructure throughout China. That money will never return to USA. It’s gone. China never spent it and the Liberals and their Deep State agendas have done more damage than anyone here would probably realize for another 20 years. Peddling socialism and rob the wealthiest Americans to pay for those who are the poorest but will still not restore the middle class. After American companies, including Apple, and the greedy executives, like Tim Cook, were responsible for this. Tim wants his stock options annually to vest at the highest rates possible and he nor any of the wealthy give two bits about the working class

[...]
I stopped reading at “Deep state”. Why bother writing an essay if you demonstrate in the first paragraph you don’t have a grasp on reality.
 

hagar

macrumors 68000
Jan 19, 2008
1,964
4,876
To all the Trump fans, aren’t you tired of being lied to? He said the consumer will not pay for this tarifs. Then he postponed them so people won’t feel the effect during the holiday season. I mean, how gullible can you be?
 
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Rogifan

macrumors Penryn
Nov 14, 2011
24,132
31,175
So now Trump says after having dinner with Tim Cook he’s more sympathetic to Apple’s position re: trade. That’s great but what about all the small businesses that don’t get the opportunity to dine with a Trump? So he picks winners and losers based on who is important enough to be allowed to have dinner with him. Not good.
 
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