iPhone 15/Plus Apple is comparing the iPhone 15 to iPhone 12 because...

[sack_peak]

... they expect ~50% of upgraders to replace their 3yo or older phone

Source:

- https://www.apple.com/environment/answers/
- https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/getting-a-new-iphone-every-2-years-is-making-less-sense-than-ever/
- https://www.makeuseof.com/how-often-should-you-upgrade-your-phone/
- https://www.pcmag.com/news/the-2-year-mobile-phone-upgrade-cycle-is-mostly-dead
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/619788/average-smartphone-life/
- https://www.mobileworldlive.com/devices/news-devices/us-phone-upgrade-cycle-stretches-to-33-months/
- https://www.gsmarena.com/weekly_pol...e_keep_their_old_phones_longer-news-44191.php
- https://9to5mac.com/2019/02/08/four-year-smartphone-upgrades/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/17/smartphone-users-are-waiting-longer-before-upgrading-heres-why.html

When the EU law for replaceable batteries gets enforced 4 years from now in 2027 expect more people to nearly double the length of keeping their iPhone & Android

Yearly upgraders are 1 of 20 persons.

iPhone 12 Pro uses a A14 Bionic chip vs iPhone 15 Pro uses a A17 Pro. See the single & multi core performance differences.

 

[RhysoTDI]

I'm in that 3 year category lol
Up until the iPhone 8 I was a yearly upgrader but since then I've seen little point in swapping out my phone. Only reason now is the bettery is suffering (alebit not much) and after 3 years I feel like it will be a worthwhile upgrade

My thought is 'how fast do you 'really' need your phone to be'?? Or how many megapixels does a camera need? 🤷‍♂️

 

[eyoungren]

I have the 11 Pro Max. It was paid off in March of 2023. Got it in February 2021 when the iPh 12 series was the current model.

I won't be upgrading for at least another two years or so and when I do it won't be to the current model. It'll probably be the 15 PM, but the 17 series (or whatever it will be called then) will be the current model at that time.

I'm not alone and I don't think that's reflected on these charts/graphs - people who do upgrade but not to the current model.

 

[kanga1622]

That’s me! Upgrading to the 15+ because the 12 my son was using has a horrible battery. He’s inheriting my 13 when I upgrade.

My husband and I tend to upgrade every 2-3 years passing our phones on to the kids. Then we turn the kids’ phones in for trade. So someone looking at just the buy/trade transaction will always think we are holding phones for 3-5 years. And we are as a family but not necessarily as an individual. If we were close to an Apple Store we would have just gotten a battery replacement and skipped the 15 upgrade cycle. The 12 is still a great phone with no issues other than the battery needing replacement without a decent option to do so in our area.

 

[eyoungren]

That’s me! Upgrading to the 15+ because the 12 my son was using has a horrible battery. He’s inheriting my 13 when I upgrade.

I just got my son a new battery for his iPhone SE2 on Saturday. After a recent Apple store experience I've decided to cut my ties to the Apple store for service. uBreakiFix is where we went and they are owned by Asurion, one of the two insurance giants (Assurant being the other) that the major carriers use for their insurance.

uBreakiFix had a battery for my 6 Plus and for my son's SE2. Both Apple, OEM with a one year warranty. They've been no hassle and no chaos and you don't need an appointment.

 

[WaitingForGuacamole]

I'm in that 3 year category lol
Up until the iPhone 8 I was a yearly upgrader but since then I've seen little point in swapping out my phone. Only reason now is the bettery is suffering (alebit not much) and after 3 years I feel like it will be a worthwhile upgrade

My thought is 'how fast do you 'really' need your phone to be'?? Or how many megapixels does a camera need? 🤷‍♂️

Same here, now. And I used to upgrade much more often until I reached the 12 Pro. Between the increasing cost of keeping up and the decreasing model difference on a year-to-year basis, I think the days of my upgrading annually, or even every other year, are over.

These are the main motivators for my upgrade:

1. My battery is at 84% - not low enough for AppleCare+ to kick in, but low enough to notice, and it hasn't budged in 6 months (should I be shocked by that?).
2. Performance - no, the phone itself isn't slowing down, but the OS is 3 years newer. More features, more work. At some point an upgrade is needed to keep up with Apple itself.
3. USB-C. Yeah, cleaning up the cables on the "charging shelf" would be really nice. Couple of MagSafes for the phones/airpod pros, couple of USB-Cs for the iPads (and also the phones). Put a lightning cable in the "legacy cable drawer" for good measure.
4. StandBy. Phone as an actual alarm clock on the nightstand is actually pretty compelling to me!

 

[kanga1622]

I just got my son a new battery for his iPhone SE2 on Saturday. After a recent Apple store experience I've decided to cut my ties to the Apple store for service. uBreakiFix is where we went and they are owned by Asurion, one of the two insurance giants (Assurant being the other) that the major carriers use for their insurance.

uBreakiFix had a battery for my 6 Plus and for my son's SE2. Both Apple, OEM with a one year warranty. They've been no hassle and no chaos and you don't need an appointment.

We might be willing to find a shop that isn’t Apple approved but then I’m assuming we lose all value in trading in that phone in the future. We live several hours from an Apple Store and the localish Best Buy gave us such a run around about replacing the battery that we got the distinct impression they didn’t have a tech on staff comfortable doing that particular repair. First world problems!

 

[DamonOrl]

That would be me, iPhone 12 Pro Pacific Blue to iPhone 15 Pro Natural Titanium

 

[Isamilis]

... they expect ~50% of upgraders to replace their 3yo or older phone

Source:

- https://www.apple.com/environment/answers/
- https://www.cnet.com/tech/mobile/getting-a-new-iphone-every-2-years-is-making-less-sense-than-ever/
- https://www.makeuseof.com/how-often-should-you-upgrade-your-phone/
- https://www.pcmag.com/news/the-2-year-mobile-phone-upgrade-cycle-is-mostly-dead
- https://www.statista.com/statistics/619788/average-smartphone-life/
- https://www.mobileworldlive.com/devices/news-devices/us-phone-upgrade-cycle-stretches-to-33-months/
- https://www.gsmarena.com/weekly_pol...e_keep_their_old_phones_longer-news-44191.php
- https://9to5mac.com/2019/02/08/four-year-smartphone-upgrades/
- https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/17/smartphone-users-are-waiting-longer-before-upgrading-heres-why.html

When the EU law for replaceable batteries gets enforced 4 years from now in 2027 expect more people to nearly double the length of keeping their iPhone & Android

Yearly upgraders are 1 of 20 persons.

iPhone 12 Pro uses a A14 Bionic chip vs iPhone 15 Pro uses a A17 Pro. See the single & multi core performance differences.

View attachment 2266907

Quite interesting. Most of MR readers are in these 5% population.

 

[sack_peak]

Quite interesting. Most of MR readers are in these 5% population.

It's an enthusiast forum. Many buy annually due to work reasons.

 

[Wyvernspirit]

Going from an iPhone 12 Pro (Pacific Blue) to 15 Pro Max (Black Titanium, becasue there is no Purple option this year)

Edit: My Actaul Progression - iPhone OG - 3GS - 4 - 5 - 6 Plus - 6s Plus (due to screen issues) - X - 12 Pro - 15 Pro Max

 

[Sorinut]

Quite interesting. Most of MR readers are in these 5% population.

I don't think the readers here upgrade yearly. A lot do, but not most.

 

[eyoungren]

We might be willing to find a shop that isn’t Apple approved but then I’m assuming we lose all value in trading in that phone in the future. We live several hours from an Apple Store and the localish Best Buy gave us such a run around about replacing the battery that we got the distinct impression they didn’t have a tech on staff comfortable doing that particular repair. First world problems!

The store I mentioned is an Apple Certified Repair store, backed up by the insurance handler the carriers use. It's also a chain. So, if you do look elsewhere then that's the kind of thing you'd want to be looking for.

I would NOT have taken my son's SE2 to a shop that wasn't at the very least Apple Certified. My 6 Plus was a different matter.

 

[edfoo]

Also on 3 yearly upgrading path.
6 -> 8 -> 12 -> 15 now.

 

[Basic75]

That’s me! Upgrading to the 15+ because the 12 my son was using has a horrible battery. He’s inheriting my 13 when I upgrade.

Just got an original Apple replacement battery for my XS. Good as new.

 

[Deeps]

Seems like you don't need to upgrade every 1-2 yrs as the phone changes are in small increments to not warrant the upgrade.

With that being said I have a 12 Pro Max and getting a 15 Pro Max on launch day

 

[boltjames]

...and they are exactly right.

In fact, those of us on the iPhone 15 cycle are the same people whose first iPhone was the 3GS and have been on that 2 year cycle (for the first years on the carrier-based model) and now the 3 year cycle (since carriers stopped the new-every-two subsidies).

10 > 12 > 15 > 18 those are the biggest audiences for iPhone upgrades because we're the ones who got the 3GS and we're the ones who got the X's.

That, and our 12's are worth $800 on trade right now and we know they'll be worth half that in 2024. My 15 is going to cost me $2.17 per month for 36 months with AT&T. Closest thing to the old new-every-two there is at present.

 

[flashflooder]

I think the biggest reason is carriers locking us into ~30-36 month contracts. Makes sense a large chunk of people are up for an upgrade, and with the trade-in value they are offering it's like free money (especially if you are happy with your carrier and don't mind being locked in again).

 

[Sukach]

12 Pro here... Going to 15 Pro Max. I'm on the 3-year upgrade cycle that I started with the X (was on a 2-year cycle prior to the X). Not sure what I'll be doing with my 12 Pro. Probably gonna try the Swappa approach rather than Craigslist/FB Marketplace that I've done in the past.

 

[Maaz]

Yep I’m on the 3 year cycle now as well. Love these carrier trade in deals.

 

[contacos]

I have a 12 Pro Max but the battery has gone to crap for the 2nd time already and Apple offered me 420€, which means the 15 Plus was „only“ 680€. Figured I wouldn’t get as much next year when I initially planned to upgrade to 16 „Ultra“.

Now I am actually thinking about keeping the 15 Plus for my iOS ecosystem needs and a Galaxy Fold 6* for my „I want something new to play with“ needs next fall 😅

*only if Samsung finally makes the Fold outer screen wider

 

[Petey07]

Same here, I usually upgrade yearly or bi-yearly, but after the 12pm, i didn't find any WOW factor that makes me want to upgrade.

I am currently using the 12PM, and thinking of upgrading to the 15PM. One main reason of thinking of upgrading is because my battery life is about 75%, and it's noticeable. The phone itself is still functining fine, but I have a feeling that with updates, the phone might slow down and i might use this time to take advantage of the upgrade. I am debating if I should spend $90 to get the battery replace, or upgrade to the 15PM and use it for the next 3+ years.

 

[adrianlondon]

I have the 11 (and prior to that, the 6S which is now my backup phone). I was thinking of upgrading to the 15, but my 11 is running so well for me I'll wait until next year.

 

[Asiatic Black Hebrew]

It's an enthusiast forum. Many buy annually due to work reasons FOMO.

Fixed.

 

[Marty80]

I am using a iphone 12 pro max, its not three years yet just two. Three years is next years iphone 16 pro max. Apple will see me than if the rumors hold.