Auto Apple is not going to succeed in selling autonomous driving software and Carplay

[CrysisDeu]

With Apple canceling their EVs, a lot of ppl think they are better off licensing their autonomous driving software to car makers, or continue with the carplay route. I don’t think either will play out. A few years down the road, I think ppl will realize apple stopping their EV plan is a huge blow.

Licensing self driving software
You kinda need a fleet running out there to grab real life data, which Apple won’t be able to. And the competition has already started where Apple has nothing to show:
Toyota partnered with Huawei globally
Same story for Audi (and very likely the VW group)

Carplay
“People who are really serious about software should make their own hardware” - Alan Kay and quoted by Jobs

A good car OS needs deep integration with the car itself. Future cars will be “software defined”. For example: Porsche’s new active suspension is digital rather than mechanical. Xiaomi’s SU7 supports in car “made for Xiaomi” accessories that requires software integration.

Carplay is essentially Apple working as a contractor for legacy auto makers. They will need to build experience for every single auto makers who is willing to partner with them.
1. Cross company partnership is really hard, and slow.
2. Apple cannot focus on making one great experience, but rather need to have multiple teams to build similar but different experiences. It will waste a lot of time and effort.
3. When you need to make things generic for different screen layout/sizes, different hardware, button combos, different feature sets. You tend to reduce the capability of the software, or you will be in a hell for keeping the software optimal and up to date. And Apple doesn’t have that experience.
4. Different car companies will be willing to open their hardware to a different level to Apple, but never fully. Carplay will not be able to match the capacity and integration with native OS. I am not comparing carplay to the legacy auto maker’s OS, but the new EVs like Tesla, Rivian, Geely, Huawei, and Xiaomi.
5. Some features are plain impossible to build if you don’t control the hardware. Such as multi-modal interaction. Like pointing to a window and say “open that window” currently available on Li EVs.

So I am not convinced Carplay will continue to be successful. It has been 1+ years out, and what promises has Apple delivered for Carplay2? And IMO the Carplay 2 concept is.. bad.

Why Apple needs an EV
I believe a lot of people on this forum spends 1+ hours on their car everyday. As cars gets smarter and smarter, they will get into your digital ecosystem. Carplay was a very good start, but it will be very lacking compared to other ecosystems.

Apple doesn’t need to revolutionize the car industry, although they could, with some nice hardware and a killer software experience. At this moment, they just need a good car as a platform to carry their in house software that deeply integrates with the iOs ecosystem.

Just like how people won’t buy cars without Carplay. One day, people might find buying iPhone hard to justify because they don’t have good integrations with cars

 

[russell_314]

I can tell you why Apple has decided to get out of the EV market. Three letters, BYD. Right now it looks like BYD might start “manufacturing“ electric vehicles in Mexico. Sure they can’t directly import them from China, but I think they can just ship most of the components to Mexico in perhaps some partially assembled configuration and then ship it across the border. There’s no way any electric vehicle manufacturer would be able to compete with that. Sure companies like Ford and General Motors who subsidize their EV program with ICE vehicles would still be able to produce an EV selling it at below cost to manufacture, but I don’t see Apple being able to do the same. Maybe I’m wrong and they could subsidize an EV with profits from iPhones and other sales, but how long could they maintain that?

Of course this is all speculation by me but I think it makes sense. Unless there was some big tariff put on BYD and other Chinese automakers, there’s no way to compete with them.

Maybe Apple could introduce some super high-end luxury car but with low sales numbers the price would have to be astronomical to make back billions spent in R&D.

 

[CrysisDeu]

I can tell you why Apple has decided to get out of the EV market. Three letters, BYD. Right now it looks like BYD might start “manufacturing“ electric vehicles in Mexico. Sure they can’t directly import them from China, but I think they can just ship most of the components to Mexico in perhaps some partially assembled configuration and then ship it across the border. There’s no way any electric vehicle manufacturer would be able to compete with that. Sure companies like Ford and General Motors who subsidize their EV program with ICE vehicles would still be able to produce an EV selling it at below cost to manufacture, but I don’t see Apple being able to do the same. Maybe I’m wrong and they could subsidize an EV with profits from iPhones and other sales, but how long could they maintain that?

Of course this is all speculation by me but I think it makes sense. Unless there was some big tariff put on BYD and other Chinese automakers, there’s no way to compete with them.

Maybe Apple could introduce some super high-end luxury car but with low sales numbers the price would have to be astronomical to make back billions spent in R&D.

Although I agree.. some partnerships can happen between them just like how they were discussing with BMW, but now with someone who actually have decent experience building an EV. And it’s not like BYD can ditch Apple later because Apple builds the software integration with Apple’s ecosystem. It’s an absolute win-win for both companies.

Toyota and Porsche can co-exist in this world. Different car brands can have different target buyers as well

 

[russell_314]

Although I agree.. some partnerships can happen between them just like how they were discussing with BMW, but now with someone who actually have decent experience building an EV. And it’s not like BYD can ditch Apple later because Apple builds the software integration with Apple’s ecosystem. It’s an absolute win-win for both companies.

Toyota and Porsche can co-exist in this world. Different car brands can have different target buyers as well

Partnership do happen. I’m pretty sure Tesla buys cells from BYD in some markets. Allowing BYD to sell cars in the USA without significant tariffs would be a loss for everyone in the USA. Sure consumers would love cheap cars just like they love buying cheap products from Walmart but is that really a “win”? Right now many EV’s are made domestically so this would mean thousands of layoffs

 

[CrysisDeu]

Partnership do happen. I’m pretty sure Tesla buys cells from BYD in some markets. Allowing BYD to sell cars in the USA without significant tariffs would be a loss for everyone in the USA. Sure consumers would love cheap cars just like they love buying cheap products from Walmart but is that really a “win”? Right now many EV’s are made domestically so this would mean thousands of layoffs

Another argument: do we think Apple could not even compete with a company like BYD? BYD is till making a lot of money, so it’s not like Apple need to lose a lot of money for the sake of competition.

It is sadly a yes for me, but not a good yes I want to acknowledge

 

[russell_314]

Another argument: do we think Apple could not even compete with a company like BYD? BYD is till making a lot of money, so it’s not like Apple need to lose a lot of money for the sake of competition.

It is sadly a yes for me, but not a good yes I want to acknowledge

I don’t think Apple or any US automaker could directly compete with BYD. At least not if they’re making the cars in the USA. With USA wages, labor, environmental and other regulations it’s impossible.

Apple might do what they do with iPhones and import them from China but they’re not going to get the same support from the Chinese government as BYD.