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bushman4

macrumors 601
Mar 22, 2011
4,034
3,456
Let’s keep in mind that Apples plans to slow down hiring are contingent on the economy. And truth be told nobody really knows how this tightening of interest rates will affect the economy being there’s so many other variables in play
Yes I’ve read the doom and gloom predictions as well as the party time ones
 

I7guy

macrumors Nehalem
Nov 30, 2013
34,294
24,026
Gotta be in it to win it
Tempering greed. It’s a bigger pandemic than the corona virus ever was. It makes no sense that wealth is distributed as it is with all the people who suffer and struggle each day. Many of whom live in virtual indentured servitude.

Current economic distribution is as atrocious as it was in the 1920s and maybe worse.
So the low bar if one is not suffering and struggling a paycut should be taken by everyone else? And what is done with the money saved in salaries and bonuses? Who decides who gets what and how does this all work? Or is it just Tim Cook that should be given a pay cut?
 

veeco3110

macrumors 6502
Aug 29, 2007
329
141
brick nj
Funny how every headline 6 months ago was noting how hiring was unstoppable across the tech industry, and companies couldn't fill roles fast enough. Funny how the headlines change so quickly. I'm guessing in another 6 months we'll see coverage of the 'surge' in spending again? 😆
Yes because of how things were going, it was better to be able to hire and be over staffed then to be completely understaffed.

global demand was much higher, therefore you need more employees. Now they’re able to weed through the good and bad workers and get rid of them.
 

Mainsail

macrumors 68020
Sep 19, 2010
2,349
3,114
Is that a Rene Russo or Rene Ritchie - Ukraine War. 😄

Anyway, I think we are heading into a recession, so we better hang on tight. I am not putting any more money in my investments right now since there is no growth. It’s just keeps fluctuating.

Make sure you buy whatever Apple products you truly need now and take care of them for the long run. I am even contemplating whether I will bother with my scheduled iPhone upgrade next year. More likely to run my existing iPhone X into the ground.
I agree. The fed is hitting the breaks and a soft landing looks unlikely at the moment. As for putting more money into investments, I have always invested for the long run and dollar cost averaged into the market, so fluctuations never really bothered me. I just ride them out.

BTW - During inflationary times, cash in the bank isn‘t great either.
 

dwsolberg

macrumors 6502a
Dec 17, 2003
843
824
Looking at the earnings and employment stats, we don't have a recession. The continued caution with covid effecting work activities is likely why Apple plans to slow hiring.
Not yet. It’s very likely by the end of the year, and smart companies are preparing now.
 

dwsolberg

macrumors 6502a
Dec 17, 2003
843
824
Weird recession - if it even IS a recession.

Is it a recession right now? 2 quarters in which USA has negative GDP - is that the definition of a "recession" I wonder? Did that happen yet?

I think we are experiencing some unusual happenings in the world. True that the Fed can create a recession by raising interest rates, but there is a lot of things that don't make sense like low unemployment, high real estate prices, boom in military spending, consumers spending money.

Personally, I think it's all transient stuff. We are recovering from the Pandemic and there are some bullwhip exaggerations happening. Lots of worriers will be worrying as per usual, but it will all be ok.

I'm mainly coming from an armchair opinion watching and evaluating CNBC stock market opinions
Three things likely in our future:
1. Student loan repayments will start, sucking a tremendous amount of money out of many people’s monthly budget.
2. A large chunk of people are currently spending their pandemic savings to keep up with inflation. Eventually, that’s going to hit a wall. Predictions are this will happen over the next few months.
3. Europe might not get gas from Russia this winter, closing down factories there, further snarling supply lines and increasing our gas prices.
4. After the effect of inflation on wage increases, people on average are earning about 4% LESS this year. Our consumer-based economy cannot continue to grow with those numbers.

Anything is possible; life is a roll of the dice, but If I had to bet, it would be on a recession coming up.
 

siddavis

macrumors 6502a
Feb 23, 2009
861
2,840
Weird recession - if it even IS a recession.

Is it a recession right now? 2 quarters in which USA has negative GDP - is that the definition of a "recession" I wonder? Did that happen yet?

I think we are experiencing some unusual happenings in the world. True that the Fed can create a recession by raising interest rates, but there is a lot of things that don't make sense like low unemployment, high real estate prices, boom in military spending, consumers spending money.

Personally, I think it's all transient stuff. We are recovering from the Pandemic and there are some bullwhip exaggerations happening. Lots of worriers will be worrying as per usual, but it will all be ok.

I'm mainly coming from an armchair opinion watching and evaluating CNBC stock market opinions
The second quarter negative GDP is a trailing indicator though. I'm not even saying that we will see negative GDP this quarter, but the very news we are discussing are the types of things that start happening heading into a recession.

The Fed has ONE job, to monitor and try to control inflation. The Fed has been asleep and is playing catchup. The Fed is not the true root cause of the recession though. They are just now trying to do their one job which is reactionary to the oversupply of money.

Oh, and we are recovering from the pandemic response.
 

siddavis

macrumors 6502a
Feb 23, 2009
861
2,840
The most bizarre recession I've seen lately.

War in Ukraine causes shortage, and thus rising prices of oil, gas, wheat, etc etc
Rising prices for such essentials puts downward pressure on the world's economies
Reserve banks around the world: oh no, rising prices = inflation = we must raise interest rates to contain inflation.

FFS - so we have a temporary inflation due to a war, which is already damaging the economy, so we are going to pile onto it by raising interest rates and make sure we really kill the economy.

The most utter brain dead reaction I could imagine, from the supposed genius leaders of our financial system. I am bashing my head against the wall in disbelief.
Keep telling yourself that.
From freaking Larry Summers! check the date:
First, while there are enormous uncertainties, there is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability. This will be manageable if monetary and fiscal policy can be rapidly adjusted to address the problem. But given the commitments the Fed has made, administration officials’ dismissal of even the possibility of inflation, and the difficulties in mobilizing congressional support for tax increases or spending cuts, there is the risk of inflation expectations rising sharply. Stimulus measures of the magnitude contemplated are steps into the unknown. For credibility, they need to be accompanied by clear statements that the consequences will be monitored closely and, if necessary, there will be the capacity and will to adjust policy quickly.

I'm sorry, but this is self inflicted and yes, exacerbated by a war that was obvious to most who were actually paying attention. Braid dead reaction? Maybe, but many were trying to warn and be proactive, but were shut down as grandma killers.
 

sideshowuniqueuser

macrumors 68030
Mar 20, 2016
2,839
2,850
Keep telling yourself that.
From freaking Larry Summers! check the date:
First, while there are enormous uncertainties, there is a chance that macroeconomic stimulus on a scale closer to World War II levels than normal recession levels will set off inflationary pressures of a kind we have not seen in a generation, with consequences for the value of the dollar and financial stability. This will be manageable if monetary and fiscal policy can be rapidly adjusted to address the problem. But given the commitments the Fed has made, administration officials’ dismissal of even the possibility of inflation, and the difficulties in mobilizing congressional support for tax increases or spending cuts, there is the risk of inflation expectations rising sharply. Stimulus measures of the magnitude contemplated are steps into the unknown. For credibility, they need to be accompanied by clear statements that the consequences will be monitored closely and, if necessary, there will be the capacity and will to adjust policy quickly.

I'm sorry, but this is self inflicted and yes, exacerbated by a war that was obvious to most who were actually paying attention. Braid dead reaction? Maybe, but many were trying to warn and be proactive, but were shut down as grandma killers.
Have a read of this, and prepare to have your world rocked! https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NAIRU
 

sideshowuniqueuser

macrumors 68030
Mar 20, 2016
2,839
2,850
So you are saying inflation should be expected because unemployment is low right now?
Nope, I'm saying that for some bizarre reason, the western world is irrationally fixated on keeping inflation within a specific range (sure, we don't want hyperinflation, but that never happens unless there is a seriously chronic shortage of life essentials such as food), and part of that fixation was the introduction of the NAIRU in the mid 70's, thus keeping unemployment at a level of around 5% as a matter of policy (whilst whipping and punishing the unemployed as if just for sport), and thus it doesn't matter where the economy tries to take itself, the policy of inflation control via interest rates ensures that the economy for the last 45 or 50 years has remained on average, permanently mired in mediocrity, with stagnating wages, growing debt, and other fun ways of keeping the people repressed.

How that relates to right now, is that there has been a jump in inflation caused by the war (and sure, government stimulus helps too), and thus, due to this policy of mediocrity, we now have interest rates jumping upwards in order to kill the economy.

On Biden, his mistake is merely thinking that as president, he actually has any economic control. Oh no no no, that control is 100% in the hands of those that control the interest rate lever. The president can pump stimulus in all he wants, but the interest rates will be shoved upwards in order to kill the effects of that stimulus.

However, remove the NAURU, and remove the fixation with keeping inflation within a tiny fixed window, and the stimulus would actually succeed in booming the economy, and lead to a new period of prosperity, growth, invention, low unemployment, and productivity. Some might even be bold enough to state that it would be a time where America became great again (America, of course, was most recently great between WWII and the introduction of NAURU, a period when unemployment averaged around 1-2%, and nope, we didn't see hyperinflation, and nor did we see the interest rates being jammed upwards to control inflation by killing the economy). Imagine how great America could have been if we hadn't seen 50 years of NAURU? And the policy still persists.
 

BuddyTronic

macrumors 68000
Jul 11, 2008
1,866
1,473
The second quarter negative GDP is a trailing indicator though. I'm not even saying that we will see negative GDP this quarter, but the very news we are discussing are the types of things that start happening heading into a recession.

The Fed has ONE job, to monitor and try to control inflation. The Fed has been asleep and is playing catchup. The Fed is not the true root cause of the recession though. They are just now trying to do their one job which is reactionary to the oversupply of money.

Oh, and we are recovering from the pandemic response.

Most people only know that if the recession word is being used, you vote for the other guy next time.

The democrats are trying to change the definition maybe? I heard that from a friend.

There’s no recession without layoffs is there?

I think people are bothered about gas and food prices and equate it to “economy in trouble”. But it isn’t really.
 

BuddyTronic

macrumors 68000
Jul 11, 2008
1,866
1,473
Why? Need to update the goalpost position?

Let me explain my thoughts.

I respect the fed Powell. How come he does not use the strict definition?

A friend of mine is saying that the Dems are moving the goalposts like you are pointing out (likely correctly I just found out).

"the traditional definition is 2 consecutive quarters of negative gdp"

Negative "gdp growth" is more appropriate words??

I’m honestly a bit confused in that part. Or at least I was.

Perhaps the best explanation is that the Dems really are trying to fool the public

if Powell pulls this off that will be something. Also there is 2nd level thinking too:. if the market thinks we r in a recession then that means looser monetary policy.

and hence stocks are bought and go up

Fed started buying equities just recently again. Basically flat but not selling.

Anyways I hope this explains my possibly incorrect thinking on recession

Booya Aapl though :)
 
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