Apple Sinks From First to Fifth Place in Chinese Smartphone Market

[spazzcat]

Looking at the graph, seems very normal. They'll be way up in Q4?

That doesn't get clicks and the doomers to coming and comment.

 

[MaSx]

With little to no changes, same design, extremely high prices, low storage - nothing but pure greed, what's to expect?

Finally people are waking up and seeing Apple for what it is and has been over the years. Absolutely boring with bunch of milking products under Tim Cook's leadership. He is all for profits, he is failing in that too, not a visionary or revolutionary. He turned Apple into a boring company.

 

[spazzcat]

Finally people are waking up and seeing Apple for what it is and has been over the years. Absolutely boring with bunch of milking products under Tim Cook's leadership. He is all for profits, he is failing in that too, not a visionary or revolutionary. He turned Apple into a boring company.

Do you realize that the graph shows a normal cycle; Apple is always up in Q4 and then goes down.

 

[falainber]

The economics and reasoning behind this is not as obvious as it looks.

Chinese economy is collapsing which is reducing disposable income to spend on technology. That forces people back to inland brands because they are much cheaper. Also the government is restricting use of Apple devices in government positions. This is not because Apple are insecure in particular but because the government has no control over the provision of devices. Looking at political allegiances, there is a West vs East divide and they are hedging their bets on retaining control over their population's devices much like Russia did last year. This increases mindshare of devices when there are so many "government" employees in China.

So don't blame Apple, blame failing Chinese economic policy and geopolitical tensions.

Anyway if you go and look at the backers for some of these other companies you will see the Chinese government directly or indirectly involved.

Not only Chinese economy is not collapsing, it is growing faster than US economy.

 

[AlmightyKang]

China's economy has been "collapsing" and their economic policy has been "failing" for the past 40 years according to "experts" in the West and yet somehow they keep getting richer and stronger. Now they're the biggest economy in the world (PPP) and still growing without relying on tricks like counting credit card debt and overdraft fees as 'growth'.

HarmonyOS development is building up in pace quite rapidly and phones from Xiaomi and Huawei are getting better and better every year, in many respects they outclass the iPhone like with the Xiaomi 14 Ultra's cameras (it's honestly no competition). Look at equivalent 'ecosystem' features in HarmonyOS vs. iOS and you'll see the iPhone is not the clear winner, the iPhone is now just another phone for people in China. Besides the graph shows a Q1 slowdown similar to 2022 so people aren't just abandoning the iPhone out of some economic necessity or government mandate.

The iPhone ban was overblown btw, it just said don't bring your iPhone to work in the same way our government might say don't bring a Korean phone to work, that doesn't mean I can't buy a Korean phone all of a sudden.

Here's a 2024 "expert" letting us know China's economy is collapsing:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/opinion/china-economy-xi.html

Here's a 2013 "expert" letting us know China's economy is collapsing:

https://carnegieendowment.org/2013/07/29/will-china-s-economy-crash-pub-52520

Here's a 2001 "expert" letting us know China's economy is collapsing:

The Coming Collapse of China - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

What year do you think it might become true? Because so far the predictions have been comically wrong every year.

The figures are very heavily massaged but yes they are actually collapsing and it's pretty bad. I work in this sector in one of the larger investment backers and we have independent analysts working on this who tend to have it spot on. Give it 2 years and you will see - we don't look at the reported growth figures but the debt versus credit rating and risk side of things which is an absolute mess.

There are two principal events which have triggered this are the much hushed food crisis in 2023, which is barely even talked about in country and the Evergrande default situation which are both still ongoing. Various large conglomerates in China have been derated in the last couple of years. Add to that the lowering confidence over surveillance states and the risk to other sovereign governments and there isn't a lot of appetite to make new investments in China at the moment. The word is: why would you put money on this when you can throw it into the Western defence sector? Of course on top of this we have sabre rattling over Taiwan and the current South China Sea situation. End game is lots of debt, declining capital, more defaults and increased risk perception.

From a technical perspective, yes they might be superior hardware and software but they come from a nation which has a bad reputation. And that counts for more than spec sheets.

This is in no way insulting the Chinese people for ref, but the leadership needs to work out if it's going to be a capitalist or a communist dystopia because you can't have both.

 

[falainber]

These stories are always click bait and market manipulation waste of time. They are comparing sales against budget plastic phones and some of them are state subsidised.

Compare only against direct competition with the same quality and price and NOT assisted by government spending.

It’s also absolutely impossible to verify sales of most things in China. Information is a black box there with no audits and a large gray market.

The absolute numbers might reflect the things you mentioned. This does not change the fact that Apple market share is shrinking.

 

[MAlbi]

Conclusions ? Based on graph that goes up and down and up and down and up and down.
Am I being told that this time that declone is here to stay ? I think that at this moment, stakeholders are going to undrestand this version with up and down. Lets not expect some meaningful change for users.

 

[falainber]

The figures are very heavily massaged but yes they are actually collapsing and it's pretty bad. I work in this sector in one of the larger investment backers and we have independent analysts working on this who tend to have it spot on. Give it 2 years and you will see - we don't look at the reported growth figures but the debt versus credit rating and risk side of things which is an absolute mess.

There are two principal events which have triggered this are the much hushed food crisis in 2023, which is barely even talked about in country and the Evergrande default situation which are both still ongoing. Various large conglomerates in China have been derated in the last couple of years. Add to that the lowering confidence over surveillance states and the risk to other sovereign governments and there isn't a lot of appetite to make new investments in China at the moment. The word is: why would you put money on this when you can throw it into the Western defence sector? Of course on top of this we have sabre rattling over Taiwan and the current South China Sea situation. End game is lots of debt, declining capital, more defaults and increased risk perception.

From a technical perspective, yes they might be superior hardware and software but they come from a nation which has a bad reputation. And that counts for more than spec sheets.

This is in no way insulting the Chinese people for ref, but the leadership needs to work out if it's going to be a capitalist or a communist dystopia because you can't have both.

If Chinese economy is "collapsing" how come US trade deficit with China is growing? Why do we have so many US industries begging the government to protect them from Chinese competition?

 

[MacAddict1978]

The economics and reasoning behind this is not as obvious as it looks.

Chinese economy is collapsing which is reducing disposable income to spend on technology. That forces people back to inland brands because they are much cheaper. Also the government is restricting use of Apple devices in government positions. This is not because Apple are insecure in particular but because the government has no control over the provision of devices. Looking at political allegiances, there is a West vs East divide and they are hedging their bets on retaining control over their population's devices much like Russia did last year. This increases mindshare of devices when there are so many "government" employees in China.

So don't blame Apple, blame failing Chinese economic policy and geopolitical tensions.

Anyway if you go and look at the backers for some of these other companies you will see the Chinese government directly or indirectly involved.

Economic issues are global. The Chinese government technically owns every company that is China based as well as the banks - but Chinese consumers still have consumer choice.

The companies you refer to are offering better specs at lower costs with product lines that also offer devices to an entire range of incomes - no different than here in the States of any other country.

The key difference is many of those OEM's are BANNED in the US due to security concerns which gutted the market and options here as well as companies like HTC and LG pulling out of the phone market leaving essentially Samsung and a few niche brands like TCL trying to grow their product portfolio. IOS in the US has had higher market share than Android - but Android is climbing closer and closer year after year for these reasons and globally is higher over all.

Apple should be concerned about the US as iPhone sales have been dropping, upgrade time frames increaseing, and losing marketshare to Android. It's not just a China issue.

 

[AlmightyKang]

If Chinese economy is "collapsing" how come US trade deficit with China is growing? Why do we have so many US industries begging the government to protect them from Chinese competition?

Which will lead to a trade deficit.

Look at Europe who are leading this by 1-2 years at the moment.

 

[spazzcat]

Economic issues are global. The Chinese government technically owns every company that is China based as well as the banks - but Chinese consumers still have consumer choice.

The companies you refer to are offering better specs at lower costs with product lines that also offer devices to an entire range of incomes - no different than here in the States of any other country.

The key difference is many of those OEM's are BANNED in the US due to security concerns which gutted the market and options here as well as companies like HTC and LG pulling out of the phone market leaving essentially Samsung and a few niche brands like TCL trying to grow their product portfolio. IOS in the US has had higher market share than Android - but Android is climbing closer and closer year after year for these reasons and globally is higher over all.

Apple should be concerned about the US as iPhone sales have been dropping, upgrade time frames increaseing, and losing marketshare to Android. It's not just a China issue.

View attachment 2372120

What is the source of this data? Also, the below graph shows iOS when it is up for 2023.

Mobile Operating System Market Share United States Of America | Statcounter Global Stats

This graph shows the market share of mobile operating systems in United States Of America based on over 5 billion monthly page views.

gs.statcounter.com

 

[AlmightyKang]

Apple should be concerned about the US as iPhone sales have been dropping, upgrade time frames increaseing, and losing marketshare to Android. It's not just a China issue.

Market share is irrelevant in terms of units shipped. The only thing that matters is margins and Apple are absolutely hammering it there.

Also you will find as disposable income is reduced, people will keep expensive things longer. Then after a period of time they will start keeping cheap things longer. As the margins are lower on cheaper items generally, this will have a much larger damage multiplier on people with tight margins. Also it may drive people to higher price or better perceived items with the intent of keeping them longer when the margins are compressed more and quality suffers.

 

[decypher44]

This is why ecosystem lock-in is so important to Apple in the west... objectively, the hardware alone is no longer competitive.

That is my situation. I’d love to get a Galaxy or Pixel, but almost everything I own is Apple. My household owns:

MacBook Pro (x2), MacBook Air, iPhones (x3), Apple Watch Ultra, Apple Watch S8, 2020 27” iMac 2020), pair of OG HomePods, pair of HomePod Minis, 12.9” iPad Pro, iPad mini, iPad Air, Apple Music, etc etc etc.

I’m stuck

 

[jntdroid]

With little to no changes, same design, extremely high prices, low storage - nothing but pure greed, what's to expect?

While some price improvements would be welcome, I'd take Apple's line-up over any of those OEMs. Have you ever looked at how many different models they have each year for what amounts to, basically, the same phone? It's ridiculous, and mostly just marketing spin.

 

[macfacts]

That doesn't get clicks and the doomers to coming and comment.

I'm sure apple services like apple tv are doing great in China🤑 Tim deserves a bigger bonus.

 

[ybbbbbbb]

Haha Most mainstream software in China have open-screen advertisements. When you open the software, an advertisement will pop up for 5 seconds. You have to wait for the end of the advertisement to enter the software, and there is also a shake the advertisement (using the mobile phone gyroscope). You open a software on the road, on the bus, and on the subway. This software detects that you are moving, and it will jump to other shopping software by itself... I encounter such a thing every day, but Apple is silent in the face of developers. Apple just silently watches all this happening. I hate open-screen advertisements, shake the advertisements, and hate Apple's inaction.

 

[tomekwsrod]

I’m stuck

You're not. Start slowly and you will free yourself eventually.

 

[CrysisDeu]

That forces people back to inland brands because they are much cheaper.

Huawei are not cheaper

 

[CrysisDeu]

I'm so shocked that all the other top selling phones are Chinese, it's almost as if the Chinese people are ultra nationalistic.

It’s almost as if the US is ultra nationalistic and banned everything from China

 

[delsoul]

Yeah I scoffed at the Leica and Hasselblad partnerships from Xiaomi and Huawei respectively when I first saw them but I've been proven wrong.

Look at Leica's image rendering combined with the 1" sensors from the Xiaomi 14 Ultra vs. the S24 Ultra. It's not even the same stratosphere. The 14 Ultra finally accomplishes what I've been waiting for: smartphone pictures that look like they were taken on a regular camera such as a Fuji point and shoot. An X100VI might still take the edge in raw performance but the versatility of a smartphone balances the scale.

The colors look natural, the shadows are present (no cranking up the HDR which makes everything look horrible), the overall depth and texture of the image is wonderful. This is what I want my photos to look like.

14 Ultra

S24 Ultra. This is what I've come to expect from my iPhone unless I went through the trouble of shooting raw and playing around in Lightroom for ages, even then it wouldn't look as good.

I had a Huawei Mate 9 years ago when they were released for a short time in the US. The Leica camera in that isn’t just smoke and mirrors. It has to be a 7-8 year old phone and camera by now…it STILL looks better than my iPhone 14 Pro Max. The photos have a beautiful natural rendering. They don’t just look glossed over with fancy software.

 

[kaycrystal626]

Overpriced with no major innovation. I would have get a Samsung Galaxy if I haven't lock down to the Apple ecosystem!

 

[Cesar Battistini]

It's a cycle. Just look at the graph, this year on Q4 they will overtake as nº1 again. Nothing out of the ordinary.

 

[Aoligei]

The economics and reasoning behind this is not as obvious as it looks.

Chinese economy is collapsing which is reducing disposable income to spend on technology. That forces people back to inland brands because they are much cheaper. Also the government is restricting use of Apple devices in government positions. This is not because Apple are insecure in particular but because the government has no control over the provision of devices. Looking at political allegiances, there is a West vs East divide and they are hedging their bets on retaining control over their population's devices much like Russia did last year. This increases mindshare of devices when there are so many "government" employees in China.

So don't blame Apple, blame failing Chinese economic policy and geopolitical tensions.

Anyway if you go and look at the backers for some of these other companies you will see the Chinese government directly or indirectly involved.

If you looka t Huawei, their Mate 60, Mate 60 Pro, Pure 70 series, these are not cheap phones.

It is maybe Chinese smart phone makers offers better phone than iPhone, in terms specification, localized features etc?

 

[AlmightyKang]

If you looka t Huawei, their Mate 60, Mate 60 Pro, Pure 70 series, these are not cheap phones.

It is maybe Chinese smart phone makers offers better phone than iPhone, in terms specification, localized features etc?

Possibly do.

But how many of those are sold compared to cheaper models? Probably very few.

 

[Johns12]

We see literally nobody with foldable in public but we lots of them in pawn shops where they will soon be joined by unwanted AI devices like rabbit and Humane AI pin thing.

How do all the foldable phones show up in pawn shops if no one buys them and you never see them? I will say that I own a Fold 4. I almost never use it open in public (walking around). Although it is thicker than a slab phone, just about no one knows my phone is a foldable when I'm using it.