I work for a software company in Japan (we do boring development, enterprise).
Anyway, I am not a fan of the web apps, they do certainly have a place but being able to have a real app is certainly priceless and Apple knows it.
My take on it is that we will see iPhone apps, but they will come off of iTunes purchases like ipod games and will only be put out there either by Apple or companies willing to pay the premium to use Apples inevitable distribution model and prime real-estate. Perhaps, we will see a very very narrow list of these real apps, probably from the largest of companies meeting Apples development guidelines but I have no doubt they will appear.
On the other end, I think we will indeed see widgets as well but probably not until the global rollout is complete in late 2008. I am certain we in Japan will be last
But, I got an iPhone anyway which won't EVER work here because we only have a 3G capable network. But at least I got a really cool iPod