sadly, there are still going to be a bunch of mac users using explorer. every time i walk into one of our campus computer labs, there are rows of macs with safari and firefox sitting right there in the dock, but what are all of the kids using? you guessed it. everybody knows the ugly blue E and they think that IE
is the internet - there's nothing else.
take a look at
this post john hicks just made. this is a radio show with a "website of the day" and the comments the host makes are utterly pathetic.
i think firefox will definitely make inroads, but about 80% of people on the internet have no idea how to work a computer and the thought of a *gasp* non-microsoft product that they have to install themselves is quite scary. you can tell them it's better, but you'll always get the response, "oh, IE is just easier" or "maybe for web design stuff, but for daily browsing, IE is better". it's kind of like the arguements my boss makes as to why we don't have macs at the office, "yeah, macs are good for graphics and they never crash, but pcs are better for day-to-day things - if i go to the store and want to buy some software, i can get anything i want for a pc, macs
probably have expensive software that you have to special order". funny, since the only software he buys at the store are anti-spam and anti-virus programs.
the best way to get firefox to take hold is to find peope who are fed up with pop-ups, viruses, and spyware, and install it on their computers for them. i've done this for several people, and they love it - telling their friends to ditch IE, but they never would have installed it on their own, they would have just dealt with the crap and complained.