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Apple's iphone pre-order arrival estimates are usually:


  • Total voters
    5

ro5

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Mar 20, 2023
29
26
hello,

i posted this question in the shipment tracking thread but it didn't get much attention since folks there seem to be more focused on tracking UPS flights :D hoping making a proper post/poll will elicit more useful responses.

i am currently out of the country and will be returning to the US (Los Angeles, CA) on 10/25 for a ~10 day stay. my pre-order (blue 15 pm 512) currently has an arrival estimate of 10/19-10/26 which is perfect if accurate. the timing of the shipment is important because it includes a trade-in. according to apple's policy, i have 14 days (after receiving the new phone) to return my trade-in phone in order to receive the credit, and if i fail to send the phone during that 14 day window the trade-in will be voided.

so unlike the majority of the posters here, i desperately DO NOT want my phone to ship out early! if it arrives too early there is a chance that i will not be able to complete the trade-in. if it arrives too late (past november ~3rd) i will miss out on the phone altogether.

in your opinion, should i stick with my order and trust that the arrival time estimate of 10/19-10/26 will be accurate? or is there a big chance that the order ships early and that it arrives much earlier?

i cancelled and re-ordered 3x times already to get a later shipping estimate close to my arrival date. i could cancel and re-order again later, but risk there being a huge delay on future orders that pushes the arrival date past my ~10 day US visit.

what do most people say? are the arrival estimates usually spot on, purposefully pessimistic (so the phone arrives earlier) and by how many days, or often too optimistic (phone arrives later) ?

thanks everyone!
 

ro5

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Mar 20, 2023
29
26
thanks for the link. i also just saw:


from what i've read on different threads it seems like iphones sometimes do arrive before the original order arrival estimates, and do not generally get pushed back (or at least the delay scenario is not reported as often!).

but i'm mindful that a thread about "shipping date moved forward" will generally attract comments from people falling in this scenario...

i would like to get a general consensus rather than anecdotal data points for early arrivals.
 

tekchic

macrumors 68020
Apr 19, 2010
2,056
1,763
Phoenix, AZ
If you're that far out, personally I'd cancel and just check stock inventory every morning. I wish I had done that but I'm a little closer up (9-16) so at this point I'm going to wait it out. Hindsight: Had I known this past Monday that my date wouldn't move at all, I'd have cancelled.

There was plenty of stock for me to pick from in store today on launch day but I'm already in with a Citizen's Bank iUP loan + tradein already, and I heard it takes 24 hours to "reset".

Chances are it'll ship early, but you have no idea of knowing if it's a week or a few days ahead.
 

ro5

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Mar 20, 2023
29
26
If you're that far out, personally I'd cancel and just check stock inventory every morning. I wish I had done that but I'm a little closer up (9-16) so at this point I'm going to wait it out. Hindsight: Had I known this past Monday that my date wouldn't move at all, I'd have cancelled.

There was plenty of stock for me to pick from in store today on launch day but I'm already in with a Citizen's Bank iUP loan + tradein already, and I heard it takes 24 hours to "reset".

Chances are it'll ship early, but you have no idea of knowing if it's a week or a few days ahead.
the store pickup option doesn't really work for me since i will not be in the country until 10/25. if apple would allow me to choose a pickup date in the future that would work for me, but this isn't the case. since there is no way to predict what the in-store pickup availability will be on 10/25 i am inclined to keep my pre-order and not leaving it up to chance that i will be able to get a hold of a phone by walking-in a store.

or is this risk a phantom risk and stores will be chock-full of inventory a month out after release date? if that's so then why are so many people in these forums hanging on to their pre-orders with arrival estimates well into november?
 

ro5

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Mar 20, 2023
29
26
adding my own data point..
estimated arrival was 10/16 - 10/25.
the phone arrived today 10/13.
 
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