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deconstruct60

macrumors G5
Mar 10, 2009
12,309
3,900
Question: Have you wonder why Apple rumored to launch M4 series by the end of the year? This round Apple will launch M4 from top to bottom including Mac Mini within a quarter period, why?

Mark Gurman can't tell you, but I can. The key ingredient missing is LPDDR6. :cool:

Apple will reset whole Mac lineup with LPDDR6 to stay competitive. Next year, we should have at least 4 more players entering ARM PC market with Cortex-X5, which has faster IPC than M3/M4.


Before I explained why upcoming M4 series will support LPDDR6 standard and raise the maximum amount of RAM up to 512GB. Let me show you the current LPDDR5 RAM configuration so that you guys can prepare for what is coming later this year:

Memory Density 16Gb (2GB)M3M3 ProM3 MaxM3 Max
LPDDR5 Memory Bus128-bit192-bit384-bit512-bit
Memory BW100 GB/s150 GB/s308 GB/s410 GB/s
Memory Chips2 pcs3 pcs3 pcs4 pcs
x2 = 4GB (S: 32-Gb)8 GB
x3 = 6GB (M: 48-Gb)18 GB
x4 = 8GB (S: 64-Gb)16 GB
x6 = 12GB (S: 96-Gb)24 GB36 GB36 GB48 GB
x8 = 16GB (S: 128-Gb)64 GB
x16 = 32GB (256-Gb)96 GB128 GB

This is a bit of Apples to Oranges in the above chart. The Memory chips are not the same size across the line up.
128-bit and 2 pcs is 64-bits per chip package. Similar with 192-bit and 3 pcs is 64-bits per chip package. While the M3 Mx are 128-bit per chip package. There are just more stacks in the Max version so it ends up physically bigger. It is all semi-custom RAM anyway.

The 16-bit wide dies are stacked four high. (4* 16) 64 coming out of the package. Apple talks to all four dies concurrently.

  • Apple has reduced the memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit. You may ask why? Cost cutting? Nah, Apple actually increased the RAM from 16GB to 18GB by ordering 48-Gb memory chips from Micron.

No. Cost cutting yes. They shrank the Pro die for N3 generation. Less edge space leads to lower number of memory controller lines out. They compensated by boosting the cache size so not a complete backslide. Wafer costs went up. They are also reusing the same 64-bit per package memory that are using on the M3 so also get higher economies of scale on those incrementally less semi-custom memory packages.


  • M3 Max is a different SoC with 128-bit memory bus connecting to each memory chip compared to 64-bit of M3 and M3 Pro. That's why Apple able to support 512-bit memory bus with 4 memory chips only.

Max is taking different path, but not one the Pro wasn't on earlier gen. The disabled/binned memory controller so that only use 3 packages likely also saves money in the aggregate. Used to be more cost sharing with the Pro dies but Apple has decoupled those a bit for this iteration. Likely Ultra sales (with higher margins) and some other adjustments are offsetting the incremental increases of being alone.









Apple's Unique LPDDR6 Solution

View attachment 2368980

Shown above is the die shot of M3 SoC from Apple. M3 is connected to 128-bit LPDDR5-6400 with 102GB/s bandwidth. What could Apple do to support upcoming LPDDR6? If Apple going to support 128-bit LPDDR6, the memory bandwidth will be doubled. Nah, Apple won't be so generous especially M-series is used on tablet as well. Then, it hits me that Apple's weird decision to reduce memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit bus....

Yeah, Apple going to implement something weird yet make sense if you understand the logic behind. For upcoming M4 series, Apple going to introduce 96-bit memory bus of LPDDR6 per channel as shown below:-

Memory Density 32Gb (4GB)M4M4 ProM4 MaxM4 Max
LPDDR6 Memory Bus96-bit192-bit288-bit384-bit
Memory BW150 GB/s307 GB/s461 GB/s614 GB/s
+ %+ 50%+ 100%+ 50%+ 50%
Memory Chips1 pc2 pcs3 pcs4 pcs
x3 = 12GB12 GB24 GB36 GB48 GB
x5 = 20GB20 GB40 GB80 GB
x7 = 28GB28 GB56 GB
x8 = 32GB96 GB128 GB
x12 = 48GB192 GB
x16 = 64GB256 GB

First of all, you have to understand Samsung, the biggest memory maker is making 24Gb (3GB) die as standard LPDDR6 die. Therefore, all the LPDDR6 memory chip will contain multiple layers of memory die, the most common one is x4 equal to 12GB.

If there are 4 dies in the single package how does shrinking the aggregate bus width help??? 4*16 is 64. 96-bits at 16-bits per die would be 6 dies; not 4. (And so 6*3GB 18GB minimal RAM will just substantively increase entry level prices for the overall system. Or is Samsung now going to selling 18GB for the same price they used to sell 8GB for? Probably not. ).

It would be far similar and likely far more cost effective to just keep the 64-bit wide packages and just use two for the M4 (just like the previous 3 generations).


Similar issue with 16 high stacked RAM. Apple's major objective here is to compose a "Poor man's HBM" solution, not a "very similar price as HBM" solution.

Updates: Mark Gurman mentioned that M4 series going to support up to 512GB, it seems Apple goes even bigger for LPDDR6. They are going to ask Samsung to manufacture 32Gb (4GB) per die. I have updated the table to show new memory size.

Gurman said there was going to be a "half sized" Mac Pro. Did not happen. The Extreme Mac Pro M1/M2 ... did not happen.

512GB with no ECC is a waste of time for anyone concerned about their data integrity over long term. And the 'only inside the package' ECC stuff is not real system ECC. It is similar to Apple hand waving at the ECC coverage in your SSD/HDD as to why APFS doesn't need to cover user data with protection.
 

G5isAlive

Contributor
Aug 28, 2003
2,603
4,511
Question: Have you wonder why Apple rumored to launch M4 series by the end of the year? This round Apple will launch M4 from top to bottom including Mac Mini within a quarter period, why?

Mark Gurman can't tell you, but I can. The key ingredient missing is LPDDR6. :cool:

Apple will reset whole Mac lineup with LPDDR6 to stay competitive. Next year, we should have at least 4 more players entering ARM PC market with Cortex-X5, which has faster IPC than M3/M4.


Before I explained why upcoming M4 series will support LPDDR6 standard and raise the maximum amount of RAM up to 512GB. Let me show you the current LPDDR5 RAM configuration so that you guys can prepare for what is coming later this year:

Memory Density 16Gb (2GB)M3M3 ProM3 MaxM3 Max
LPDDR5 Memory Bus128-bit192-bit384-bit512-bit
Memory BW100 GB/s150 GB/s308 GB/s410 GB/s
Memory Chips2 pcs3 pcs3 pcs4 pcs
x2 = 4GB (S: 32-Gb)8 GB
x3 = 6GB (M: 48-Gb)18 GB
x4 = 8GB (S: 64-Gb)16 GB
x6 = 12GB (S: 96-Gb)24 GB36 GB36 GB48 GB
x8 = 16GB (S: 128-Gb)64 GB
x16 = 32GB (256-Gb)96 GB128 GB

  • Apple has reduced the memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit. You may ask why? Cost cutting? Nah, Apple actually increased the RAM from 16GB to 18GB by ordering 48-Gb memory chips from Micron.
  • Apple could use two 48-Gb to make 12GB standard in M3 but Apple didn't. Why? One reason is Apple is waiting for LPDDR6, another reason is the increment of 12-16-24 LPDDR5 is not linear.
  • M3 Max is a different SoC with 128-bit memory bus connecting to each memory chip compared to 64-bit of M3 and M3 Pro. That's why Apple able to support 512-bit memory bus with 4 memory chips only.

Apple's Unique LPDDR6 Solution

View attachment 2368980

Shown above is the die shot of M3 SoC from Apple. M3 is connected to 128-bit LPDDR5-6400 with 102GB/s bandwidth. What could Apple do to support upcoming LPDDR6? If Apple going to support 128-bit LPDDR6, the memory bandwidth will be doubled. Nah, Apple won't be so generous especially M-series is used on tablet as well. Then, it hits me that Apple's weird decision to reduce memory bus of M3 Pro from 256-bit to 192-bit bus....

Yeah, Apple going to implement something weird yet make sense if you understand the logic behind. For upcoming M4 series, Apple going to introduce 96-bit memory bus of LPDDR6 per channel as shown below:-

Memory Density 32Gb (4GB)M4M4 ProM4 MaxM4 Max
LPDDR6 Memory Bus96-bit192-bit288-bit384-bit
Memory BW150 GB/s307 GB/s461 GB/s614 GB/s
+ %+ 50%+ 100%+ 50%+ 50%
Memory Chips1 pc2 pcs3 pcs4 pcs
x3 = 12GB12 GB24 GB36 GB48 GB
x5 = 20GB20 GB40 GB80 GB
x7 = 28GB28 GB56 GB
x8 = 32GB96 GB128 GB
x12 = 48GB192 GB
x16 = 64GB256 GB

First of all, you have to understand Samsung, the biggest memory maker is making 24Gb (3GB) die as standard LPDDR6 die. Therefore, all the LPDDR6 memory chip will contain multiple layers of memory die, the most common one is x4 equal to 12GB. And that's the base memory size which connected to 64-bit memory bus. With 96-bit, Apple have to custom the pin connector on the memory chip to support extra 32-bit memory bus. The advantage is M4 will provide extra 50% memory bandwidth within single memory chip. Even with upcoming 64-bit LPDDR6X-16000 could only provide 128 GB/s bandwidth. Clearly, with 96-bit LPDDR6-12800, it provides Apple plenty of headroom for future generation.

And yes, Apple will keep using LPDDR6-12800 for many generations even after LPDDR6X arrive. Initially, Apple have to pay slightly more to Samsung due to custom design. With each faster LPDDR6 arrive, the current one will keep dropping price. And Apple will reap the benefits. Meanwhile, other OEMs will have to keep paying higher price each newer generation. Apple just keep selling newer generation of M-series with 12GB as standard. And that is game changer for Apple cause Apple no longer have to worry about ever increasing memory prices.

Updates: Mark Gurman mentioned that M4 series going to support up to 512GB, it seems Apple goes even bigger for LPDDR6. They are going to ask Samsung to manufacture 32Gb (4GB) per die. I have updated the table to show new memory size.

My speculation should be correct, if you guys have any questions, feel free to let me know....


Specualated RAMMemory ChipsMemory SizeMemory Die
A17 Pro18 GB4 (2GB x 4)
A18 Pro112 GB4 (3GB x 4)
+ %Same+ 50%Same
M328 GB4 (2GB x 4)
M4112 GB3 (4GB x 3)
+ %- 50%+ 50%- 25%
M3 Pro318 GB9 (2GB x 9)
M4 Pro224 GB6 (4GB x 6)
+ %- 33%+ 33%- 33%
M3 Max448 GB24 (2GB x 24)
M4 Max448 GB12 (4GB x 12)
+ %SameSame- 50%

wow you brought data to an opinion forum... what were you thinking? /s

There does seem some reason to be optimistic, thank you. I do worry the supply/demand argument might mean this is still a few years away.
 

ProbablyDylan

macrumors member
Mar 26, 2024
91
106
Los Angeles
Android phones have more RAM than iPhones and the sky isn't falling.

While this is true for some models, the Android phones with copious RAM aren't the ones moving in volume. In Q4 2023, the best-selling Android phone was the Galaxy A54, which starts at 4GB of RAM. The Galaxy S line, that starts with 8GB, isn't even in the top 10.

At the iPhone's scale, doubling RAM capacity could have significant market implications.

Admittedly, this doesn't mean much for the Mac, but it holds a little bit of water for the phones.
 

TigeRick

macrumors regular
Original poster
Oct 20, 2012
124
141
Malaysia
That is an interesting idea! Does LPDDR6 offer provision for 96bit busses? Do you have any additional information for this, I would be curious.

One potential difficulty I see is supply. Apple is often behind the cutting edge on RAM simply because they need volumes that dwarf everything else in the industry. Apple's market might be smaller than some other brands, but every single Apple product is essentially a flagship product. This makes it much more difficult for them to produce the chips in the quantities needed. I was talking to an Apple manager close to iPhone production some time ago and he flat out told me that the main reason why Apple uses relatively small RAM capacities on the iPhone is because otherwise they would crash the DRAM market.

I have updated some information about timeline provided by Samsung in the front page

Do you think there is a high chance of that happening? Cortex-X4 doesn't reach the IPC of M1. Not that M3 IPC is any higher, of course.

It is not official but if the leaks are true, then yeah Cortex-X5 did show 18% better PPC/IPC compared to X4 which align to what ARM's CEO said:

 

6749974

Cancelled
Mar 19, 2005
959
953
I've never seen a reserved post before. I'm brimming with anticipation of what you will fill this with.

I very much appreciate this post. For a year I've speculated Apple will be moving to 12 GB RAM defaults with the M4, so its refreshing seeing a detailed breakdown as to why.

To add some more context as to why this is good for users worried about "low RAM":
  • Arguably, 8 GB isn't a lot for Macs because macOS + GPU would take 1-3 GB of RAM (so lets average to 2 GB)
  • That means applications are left with 6 GB of available memory
  • But an update to 12 GB means applications will be left with 10 GB of available memory
  • That is a 67% increase in available memory just by getting the M4 over the M3
That doesn't resolve that Apple overcharges for RAM and storage upgrades, but starting at 12 GB isn't too shabby for a MacBook Air.

I'm also going to assume that those who would have paid for a 16 GB upgrade will now get 24 GB as the next upgrade option. That's pretty neat. Correct me if I'm wrong.
 

TigeRick

macrumors regular
Original poster
Oct 20, 2012
124
141
Malaysia
I've never seen a reserved post before. I'm brimming with anticipation of what you will fill this with.

I very much appreciate this post. For a year I've speculated Apple will be moving to 12 GB RAM defaults with the M4, so its refreshing seeing a detailed breakdown as to why.

To add some more context as to why this is good for users worried about "low RAM":
  • Arguably, 8 GB isn't a lot for Macs because macOS + GPU would take 1-3 GB of RAM (so lets average to 2 GB)
  • That means applications are left with 6 GB of available memory
  • But an update to 12 GB means applications will be left with 10 GB of available memory
  • That is a 67% increase in available memory just by getting the M4 over the M3
That doesn't resolve that Apple overcharges for RAM and storage upgrades, but starting at 12 GB isn't too shabby for a MacBook Air.

I'm also going to assume that those who would have paid for a 16 GB upgrade will now get 24 GB as the next upgrade option. That's pretty neat. Correct me if I'm wrong.
Thanks for liking Reserved post, lol....😅

Basically, more data ha...

I have created two tables to show the future changes of AS. And will update more if find something suitable...
 

magicMac

macrumors 6502a
Apr 13, 2010
986
415
UK
I actually believe it. From another post I wrote:

"RAM Defaults in Macs?

What was the default RAM in Macs, how long did it stay, and when did it change? For simplicity, I’ll start from the Steve Jobs era, and I will only focus on the consumer portables.

32MB. This was used in the iBook and iBook Special Edition in July, 1999 until it was discontinued in September, 2000. It lasted 14 months.

64MB. This was used in the Firewire iBooks from September 2000 until the Dual USB iBooks in October 2001. It lasted 13 months.

128MB. This was used in the late 2001 iBooks released in October 2001 through the iBook G4, discontinued in April, 2004. It lasted 32 months

256MB. This was used in the Early 2004 iBook G4 released in April, 2004 through the late 2004 iBook G4 released in October 2004, sold until July, 2005. It lasted 15 months.

512MB. This was used from the Mid 2005 iBook G4 released in July, 2005, until the Mid 2007 MacBook, which was sold until November, 2007. It lasted 28 months.

1GB. This was used in the Late 2007 MacBook released on November, 2007 until the MacBook Late 2008, discontinued in January, 2009. It lasted 25 months.

2GB. This was used in the Late 2008 AL MacBook released on October, 2008, until the MacBook Air 11”, Mid 2011, which was discontinued n June, 2012. This lasted 44 months.

4GB. This was used in the MacBook Air 13”, Mid 2011 released in July, 2011 until the MacBook Air, 13” Early 2015, which was discontinued in June, 2017. This lasted for 71 months.

8GB. This was used as standard on MacBook Air, 2017, released on June, 2017 until now, in November, 2023. 77 months and counting.

Clearly, the amount of time machines stayed at 1GB was half what the time for 2GB, which was almost half of what 4GB. I expect 16GB to become standard in another 40 months or thereabouts, if trends continue. "

So, 16GB as default should happen in about 60 months, or 5 years. But there's no reason why Apple can't increase it by 50%, or 12GB of RAM, and then do another 4GB increase in another 2 1/2 years.

It'll meet the timeline and past trends.

Nice detailed post!

just for fun I think Apple should continue selling an 8GB RAM base MacBook Air until 2027 just to make 10 years 🤣
 

TigeRick

macrumors regular
Original poster
Oct 20, 2012
124
141
Malaysia
Some of this makes a lot of sense. We will need more ram and more memory bandwidth for on device AI. That's a fact.

Smaller memory busses mean less die spaces used for memory controllers, which eqaul more die space for things that matter like cache, NPU for AI.

Less memory chips required to exceed previous capacity and speed, saving money in BOM

Yep, I actually think SLC cache is associated with memory controller as well... That's why by reducing memory bus, the amount of SLC should be reduced...

M3Max-Die.jpg


I have created a table in the front page in case you want to know more about amount of SLC...

I think LPDDR6 is 'too new' for apple who is fairly conservative. But that's my opinion.

It's also possible the bigger chips Max/Ultra/Extreme whatever adopt HBM on the ultra high end to compete with memory bandwidth of Nvidia GPUs (but that's super speculation territory)
 

TigeRick

macrumors regular
Original poster
Oct 20, 2012
124
141
Malaysia
I wholeheartedly wish you are right, and we get bigger and faster RAM with the M4s and don’t have to wait until the M5 gen.

By the way, I don’t understand your update of 4GB I per die. Would that mean that we get stuck with 8GB (2x), 16GB (4x), 32GB (x8) per die?
No, it depends on what Apple wants. If Apple wants 12GB, then they will ask Samsung to stack 3 pcs together to create 12GB memory chip.
 
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6749974

Cancelled
Mar 19, 2005
959
953
Nice detailed post!

just for fun I think Apple should continue selling an 8GB RAM base MacBook Air until 2027 just to make 10 years 🤣
Well since we’re having fun, I think Apple should revert base model Airs and Pros to 4 GB RAM—I swear a bunch of Mac users here and on Reddit would love to argue how 4 GB is sufficient for most people.

And honestly I would love to read their arguments.
 

theorist9

macrumors 68040
May 28, 2015
3,699
2,794
Apple is conservative primarily because it protects their profit margins. Apple's RAM and SSD pricing is at least as much about margins as it is technology. If Apple gave the memory providers an accurate demand projection ~3 years ahead of time and a 'rock solid' contractual obligation to buy that much , it would mostly be there. Apple doesn't want to sign up for the liability and doesn't want the margin risk.
That's an interesting point, and it would be applicable if, say, LPDDR6 were already in commercial production at a low level back when Apple needed to decide on the RAM spec for M4. In that case, production engineers would know enough about the process to know how long it would take to ramp up production, and thus be able to essentially guarantee the needed number of chips at a future date, if a contract were signed.

But, according to this article, LPDDR6 is not in commercial production even today (or at least as of March 2024, when the article was posted); and the standards haven't even been finalized:

Given this, it's understandable that Apple might not have wanted to rely on LPDDR6 being available, in the volumes they needed, back when they were speccing-out M4, even with a contract. I believe it's only when new tech is absolutely central to the product that they're willing risk delaying product release until it's available (e.g., Apple is willing to design for future TSMC processes and accept that, if TSMC's ability to put it into commercial production is delayed, their product release will likewise be delayed).

I'm not saying Apple didn't spec the M4 for LPDDR6. I'm saying if they didn't, there's a good chance it wasn't due to financial reasons only.
 
Last edited:

ThomasJL

macrumors 68000
Oct 16, 2008
1,604
3,521
Apple will reset whole Mac lineup with LPDDR6 to stay competitive.
I don't know about that. Tim Cook, being the corporate MBA degree holding suit that he is, has a pattern of using old technology if it will cut down on manufacturing costs in order to maximize profits. For example, the latest non-Pro iPhone still has USB 2.0 data speeds:

 

Shirasaki

macrumors P6
May 16, 2015
15,621
10,924
Can't see this happening, since all the Apple polishers say 8 GB of RAM is plenty enough for most people.

Edit: Spelling error.
In fact, they will say Apple Silicon’s 512GB of RAM is the equivalent of 16TB on windows world. Typical Apple magic And unprecedented RAM efficiency.
 
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Confused-User

macrumors 6502
Oct 14, 2014
479
482
I don't know about that. Tim Cook, being the corporate MBA degree holding suit that he is, has a pattern of using old technology if it will cut down on manufacturing costs in order to maximize profits. For example, the latest non-Pro iPhone still has USB 2.0 data speeds:

Apple sometimes uses old tech, but the notion that Cook is involved in decisions like this is ridiculous.

USB2 speed was inevitable, given the use of the A16. Nobody made a choice to "use old tech" for USB specifically. I would agree, it sucks that they didn't move to USB 3.2 earlier in the Ax line. Cook surely had no involvement with that either.

Next year, when all new iphones are on A17 or A18, they'll all support USB 3.2 or better.
 
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MayaUser

macrumors 68030
Nov 22, 2021
2,805
5,935
What if they reduce it to 6GB base? LOL. You will take it and love it!
yea...some people try so hard on their own time and in the end Apple will do what they love to do
Im feeling this will age very poorly when we will have again base Macbook with 8gb
 
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theluggage

macrumors 604
Jul 29, 2011
7,508
7,407
yea...some people try so hard on their own time and in the end Apple will do what they love to do
Im feeling this will age very poorly when we will have again base Macbook with 8gb
Well, based on the last two iterations, it’s likely that the next entry-level Mac laptop will be the current M3 Air, probably still starting at 8GB, replacing the current M2 Air. The question is what happens to the base M4 MacBook Pro and M4 Air - both “better than entry level” machines which really need more RAM (and SSD) as standard to be taken seriously.
 

fakestrawberryflavor

macrumors 6502
May 24, 2021
388
512
Someone who knows about what it takes to run local on-device AI can help inform us about RAM requirements. (Not me)

Since Apple is seemingly all-in on AI and on-device AI, whatever memory amount it takes to do this will be the answer. Not just for M4 macs, but for iPhone also.

Can you run LLMs with 8GB on-device? Maybe you can. Is it the LLM training that requires large amounts of VRAM? Or running it?
 

leifp

macrumors 6502
Feb 8, 2008
342
318
Canada
Apple tends to leapfrog and then sit until the competition has moved ahead… the opportunity to leapfrog is coming up in several aspects and we’ll see if it’s this gen or next when they implement it.

More (and faster) RAM for ML/“Neural Engine” (and CPU… and GPU since it’s a shared pool)
Better/larger/etc ML cores (assuming the rhetoric around “AI” and the M4 holds true)
Time to move on from PCIe 4 (Thunderbolt 5, faster SSDs, etc)

Whether that means 12GB base RAM only Apple knows…
 
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