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SirithX

macrumors 6502
Feb 21, 2007
434
135
San Francisco
Nobody knows except Apple, and it’d be foolish for them to announce anything about the second gen and possibly hurt sales of the VP that just released.

That said, seems most people are thinking that this won’t be a yearly refresh device, probably at least 2 years before the next one. There could be a non-pro “Vision” device released in between this and the second gen Vision Pro, as well. This is expected to be a family of devices, not just a single device line.
 

TJ82

macrumors 65816
Mar 8, 2012
1,257
900
Well AirPods Max came out in 2020 and we still dont have a second gen. So…cycles can be unpredictable. I’d say 2 years before we get another product in the vision line of products

Although I'd say that the AVP is more like the iPhone or iPad than the AirPods Max for a number of reasons. The headphones are an accessory range and the Max is an example of highly mature componentry within a highly mature and saturated market.

The AVP can't be left to languish in a 2 year cycle. Sales won't grow, the market won't grow. Apple needs to commit now or else their foray will fail because there simply isn't consumer demand. The opposite is even true - many people are openly resistant to the concept of wearing headset for anything.

We'll see a cheaper model soon I think. Quite easy for Apple to downgrade the AVP while offering some kind of iterative improvement on a new lite model (eg. less weight, better FOV etc), while broadening appeal (eg. $1500 and coloured bands alongside the release of a yet unseen 'killer' app).

Far too easy for the AVP to end up a collector's device at this stage for Apple to take the pedal off now. I give it another 6 months max for rumours to appear.
 

Ghost31

macrumors 68040
Jun 9, 2015
3,356
5,191
Although I'd say that the AVP is more like the iPhone or iPad than the AirPods Max for a number of reasons. The headphones are an accessory range and the Max is an example of highly mature componentry within a highly mature and saturated market.

The AVP can't be left to languish in a 2 year cycle. Sales won't grow, the market won't grow. Apple needs to commit now or else their foray will fail because there simply isn't consumer demand. The opposite is even true - many people are openly resistant to the concept of wearing headset for anything.

We'll see a cheaper model soon I think. Quite easy for Apple to downgrade the AVP while offering some kind of iterative improvement on a new lite model (eg. less weight, better FOV etc), while broadening appeal (eg. $1500 and coloured bands alongside the release of a yet unseen 'killer' app).

Far too easy for the AVP to end up a collector's device at this stage for Apple to take the pedal off now. I give it another 6 months max for rumours to appear.
Yeah, this technology is a little too expensive and a little too advanced in my opinion to get a yearly update. I just don’t see it. Not even a little bit. We don’t really have anything similar to this to compare to in apples lineup. Do we look at quest and how often they update? Video game consoles? Quest 3 came 3 years after the 2.

My guess is we’ll get something like an iPad release cycle. 18 months. My prediction: new Vision products announced in 2025. Maybe just “vision” and that people will still think it’s too expensive. People hoping for a $1500 headset will be disappointed as the cheap one is 2500. Vision Pro will get a gen 2 in 2026 as most of the development early on needs to happen software side anyway

Another prediction: at that release cycle (say every 2 years) we are looking at a good 6 years before this catches on with a gen 3 that does enough to convince people to jump in
 

roland.g

macrumors 604
Apr 11, 2005
7,417
3,165
I would expect the Gen 2 AVP to come out in 2-3 years and the non-Pro to come out at the same time. Possible but unlikely the AVP 2 will come out after the AV. Quite likely the AVP 2 will see some significant improvement, and the AV will be the AVP1 in a cheaper form factor, giving consumers the option of the expensive cutting edge 2 vs the original in plastic for $1,500.
 

Macalway

macrumors 68040
Aug 7, 2013
3,959
2,521
They could keep plugging like Samsung does with foldables, which I thought was a little surprising. Or the could cut their loses. I think they will keep going, in traditional Apple fashion. I would be very un-Apple to chicken out.

My problem is how they presented this to the press as some kind of new commercial venture. I'm wondering if the board is happy.
 
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Niacchus

macrumors newbie
Dec 20, 2015
22
26
First time posting in many years....

I think will be 18 or so months. There have been comments I read stating that Apples internal design team wanted another 1-2 years before releasing to refine, so they had firm ideas on where they wanted to get the design to for this first release.

Now its in the wild they are gathering feedback and need enough time to see how people are using the device and make refinements using that data/feedback.

18 months time would put launch window in Q4 next year, in time for the important holiday season. Which may make sense if they think the v2 will have a little broader market appeal.

Question I have will be if it includes the M3 chip or if they will go to the M4 that may come out similar time.

However, as previous posted stated, only Apple really knows!
 

JustAnExpat

Suspended
Nov 27, 2019
1,009
998
What's Apple's history of updating new products for the first cycle? Per Mactracker:

Macintosh (128K): Released January 1984. Updated in September 1984 with the much more usable Macintosh 512.
MacBook Air: Released in January 2008. Updated in October 2008 with the MacBook Air Late 2008.
Apple TV: Released in March 2007. Updated (and replaced) in September 2010.
iPad: Released in January 2010. Updated (and replaced) in March 2011.
iPhone (4GB): Released in June 2007. Discontinued in September 2007. <---- Three months on the market only!
iPod: Released in October 2001. Discontinued and replaced in July 2002.
Apple Watch: Released in April 2015. Discontinued and replaced in September 2016.

My opinion: I expect Apple Vision, non-pro, to be released in about 6 months or thereabouts.
 

TechnoMonk

macrumors 68000
Oct 15, 2022
1,917
2,763
Well AirPods Max came out in 2020 and we still dont have a second gen. So…cycles can be unpredictable. I’d say 2 years before we get another product in the vision line of products
AirPods Max, AirPods, AirPod pro, home pod, home pod mini, or even the Beats Audio line were never refreshed like iPhone or iPad. Just have to see how Apple treats AVP, would a new processor upgrade from M2 to M4 improve battery, computing power and other features beneficial to the AVP, and Ofcourse the financials.
 

roland.g

macrumors 604
Apr 11, 2005
7,417
3,165
What's Apple's history of updating new products for the first cycle? Per Mactracker:

  • Macintosh (128K): Released January 1984. Updated in September 1984 with the much more usable Macintosh 512. - Don't know so sure ok.
  • MacBook Air: Released in January 2008. Updated in October 2008 with the MacBook Air Late 2008. - Don't know so sure ok.
  • Apple TV: Released in March 2007. Updated (and replaced) in September 2010. - 2nd Gen came out. Replaced is an interesting choice of words.
  • iPad: Released in January 2010. Updated (and replaced) in March 2011. - 2nd Gen came out. Again here the replaced concept fails.
  • iPhone (4GB): Released in June 2007. Discontinued in September 2007. - The original iPhone came in both 4 and 8GB sizes. The 4GB went away. Nothing was discontinued. Disingenuous to say that. You're discussing available storage.
  • iPod: Released in October 2001. Discontinued and replaced in July 2002. - Continues the false concept of discontinued and replacement. The Original iPod was succeeded by a second iteration. That iteration came in new storage capacities and there was a change to the wheel, however, the firewire input and much else remained the same, so this was simply a second generation.
  • Apple Watch: Released in April 2015. Discontinued and replaced in September 2016. The original Apple Watch was succeeded by the Series 1. Nothing was discontinued. Another misnomer.

My opinion: I expect Apple Vision, non-pro, to be released in about 6 months or thereabouts.
I guess this needs correcting. There, took care of it.
 

ovrlrd

macrumors 65816
Aug 29, 2009
1,384
146
What's Apple's history of updating new products for the first cycle? Per Mactracker:

Macintosh (128K): Released January 1984. Updated in September 1984 with the much more usable Macintosh 512.

This was Apple Computer, which was a very different company than today. They were competing with a lot of computer makers.

MacBook Air: Released in January 2008. Updated in October 2008 with the MacBook Air Late 2008.

This was not a brand new product category, just a new version of an existing product, so it’s not really a fair comparison.

Apple TV: Released in March 2007. Updated (and replaced) in September 2010.
iPad: Released in January 2010. Updated (and replaced) in March 2011.

Both of these were a new product category, so this is a fair comparison.

iPhone (4GB): Released in June 2007. Discontinued in September 2007. <---- Three months on the market only!

This is a completely unfair comparison, the new version that was released in Sept 2007 was still the same iPhone model but with more storage and a cheaper price, I don’t know how you could have gotten that wrong.

iPod: Released in October 2001. Discontinued and replaced in July 2002.

Again an unfair comparison, they only updated the scroll wheel to a touch wheel and bumped the storage. This was not a huge upgrade like the dock connector model that came after.

Apple Watch: Released in April 2015. Discontinued and replaced in September 2016.

Like the ATV and iPad, this seems like fair comparison because the dual processor bump was quite big.

My opinion: I expect Apple Vision, non-pro, to be released in about 6 months or thereabouts.

ATV: 41 months
iPad: 13 months
Apple Watch: 16 months

So between 13 and 41 months, with an average of 23 months.

Note that this is completely ignorant of how this product is different from all the other products, and how the speed of technological advances has slowed down drastically over the years since those products were introduced (reference: the death of Moore’s law).

I think it’s clear that in a year there is a possibility of a new version with some improvements, but to assume this just because we can throw some quick calculations together seems kind of foolish.
 
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G5isAlive

Contributor
Aug 28, 2003
2,654
4,606
I think they will release a non-pro variant this year that addresses ergonomic feedback collected about the AVP since last years announcement.

It is a curious business strategy to release your pro version first. I appreciate your optimism but the development cycle is often measured in years. If we accept that Apple released the pro version to get developers excited and working on it, its not obvious to me why they would release a cheaper version shortly after that which by definition has to leave things out to get the cost down. I think it's on a longer cycle than we are used to seeing with phones and tablets, including the non-pro variant.
 
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ryanmp

macrumors regular
Dec 6, 2016
193
348
I think they will release a non-pro variant this year that addresses ergonomic feedback collected about the AVP since last years announcement.
While a non-pro variant coming next would seem to make sense, I think it is highly unlikely we will see it in 2024, particularly as AVP expands and launches in other countries during 2024.
 
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