The worst time to buy a Windows computer? (2022 death of x86?)

[ian87w]

My laptop is nearing 10-years old. Thus I'm starting to do some research on any potential new computer purchase. The problem is, I feel like currently we are in the worst time to buy a new computer. I feel that we are at the tail end of x86. And unlike phones, I expect my computer to last for around 10 years, not 4 or 5.

Problem 1: Windows 11
As expected, my Windows 10 laptop is not eligible for Windows 11 because it doesn't have a supported processor. Problem is, Microsoft drew a really harsh line on processor requirements, with minimum being 8th gen intel, which were just released in 2018. That's just three years ago. Sure, Windows 10 is supported until 2025. However, it begs the question whether an x86 computer I buy today would even be supported on a future version of Windows 5 years from now. Highly suspect. Of course, coincidentally 2018 is roughly the first batch of Snapdragon supporting Windows 10 SoCs. With Microsoft themselves doing their own ARM chips, to me Windows 11 is akin of the "Big Sur" of Windows, aka it's a telltale of Microsoft' transition to ARM, by quickly abandoning anything 4 years or older x86 processors. It really begs the question if buying a Windows computer today (which are not cheap thanks to the shortages), a good idea if the whole x86 platform is being left behind?

Problem 2: intel
We know intel's lackluster performance per watt, although they boosted their performance a bit with the 11th gen. But what if intel themselves are ditching x86? Intel is acquiring SiFive. That's a huge hint of intel themselves are transitioning. Of course, the problem for a consumer is that today, intel is still making x86 processors. But it's not a good feeling when you bought an expensive laptop, and see the processor manufacturer itself abandoning the architecture mere years after. Then you add the Windows anxiety above.

Problem 3: the rest are moving to ARM
nVidia is acquiring ARM. That's obvious. Qualcomm is doubling down on their Windows supporting SoCs. Even AMD is rumored to have ARM processors in the making. And of course, we have Apple, the first in line.

So why I think it's the worst time to buy a computer (that I want to last and supported for 10 years or so)? As a consumer, I feel:
- right now, I see expensive x86 laptops at the tail end of the architecture
- consumer ARM solutions for Windows is not yet here, so we are in a transition vacuum
- looking at Apple, also expensive, they only have the M1 ready at this point, and Apple is known to drop support of machines more aggressively

It's obvious that Microsoft's stringent Windows 11 system requirements is to nudge people to buy new computers. But as a more tech savvier consumer, now I feel that I would need to hold on to my old PCs even longer to wait for the ARM transition instead of wasting money on a dead-end x86 architecture. 🙃 Here's hoping my laptop is not dying anytime soon.

 

[One2Grift]

My laptop is nearing 10-years old. Thus I'm starting to do some research on any potential new computer purchase. The problem is, I feel like currently we are in the worst time to buy a new computer. I feel that we are at the tail end of x86. And unlike phones, I expect my computer to last for around 10 years, not 4 or 5.

Problem 1: Windows 11
As expected, my Windows 10 laptop is not eligible for Windows 11 because it doesn't have a supported processor. Problem is, Microsoft drew a really harsh line on processor requirements, with minimum being 8th gen intel, which were just released in 2018. That's just three years ago. Sure, Windows 10 is supported until 2025. However, it begs the question whether an x86 computer I buy today would even be supported on a future version of Windows 5 years from now. Highly suspect. Of course, coincidentally 2018 is roughly the first batch of Snapdragon supporting Windows 10 SoCs. With Microsoft themselves doing their own ARM chips, to me Windows 11 is akin of the "Big Sur" of Windows, aka it's a telltale of Microsoft' transition to ARM, by quickly abandoning anything 4 years or older x86 processors. It really begs the question if buying a Windows computer today (which are not cheap thanks to the shortages), a good idea if the whole x86 platform is being left behind?

Problem 2: intel
We know intel's lackluster performance per watt, although they boosted their performance a bit with the 11th gen. But what if intel themselves are ditching x86? Intel is acquiring SiFive. That's a huge hint of intel themselves are transitioning. Of course, the problem for a consumer is that today, intel is still making x86 processors. But it's not a good feeling when you bought an expensive laptop, and see the processor manufacturer itself abandoning the architecture mere years after. Then you add the Windows anxiety above.

Problem 3: the rest are moving to ARM
nVidia is acquiring ARM. That's obvious. Qualcomm is doubling down on their Windows supporting SoCs. Even AMD is rumored to have ARM processors in the making. And of course, we have Apple, the first in line.

So why I think it's the worst time to buy a computer (that I want to last and supported for 10 years or so)? As a consumer, I feel:
- right now, I see expensive x86 laptops at the tail end of the architecture
- consumer ARM solutions for Windows is not yet here, so we are in a transition vacuum
- looking at Apple, also expensive, they only have the M1 ready at this point, and Apple is known to drop support of machines more aggressively

It's obvious that Microsoft's stringent Windows 11 system requirements is to nudge people to buy new computers. But as a more tech savvier consumer, now I feel that I would need to hold on to my old PCs even longer to wait for the ARM transition instead of wasting money on a dead-end x86 architecture. ? Here's hoping my laptop is not dying anytime soon.

If you're looking for 10 years out of your next laptop too then worrying about the latest tech probably shouldn't be a high priority. Maybe prioritize keyboard build quality and cost of replacement batteries .

You're trying to buy a laptop based on what will be in a couple of year. You might as well take out the magic 8 ball. What is the actual direction and destination of the hardware and software architecture in two years can't be known. IMHO find the best x86 laptop that meets your needs and you can afford. Then completely avoid playing the 'if I would have waited' or 'I should have bought ____' game in 3 months or 3 years.

 

[ian87w]

If you're looking for 10 years out of your next laptop too then worrying about the latest tech probably shouldn't be a high priority. Maybe prioritize keyboard build quality and cost of replacement batteries .

You're trying to buy a laptop based on what will be in a couple of year. You might as well take out the magic 8 ball. What is the actual direction and destination of the hardware and software architecture in two years can't be known. IMHO find the best x86 laptop that meets your needs and you can afford. Then completely avoid playing the 'if I would have waited' or 'I should have bought ____' game in 3 months or 3 years.

It’s not about that. I’m not hoping for some new or added feature in the future. I merely looking at software support. It’s about buying a laptop today of an architecture that could be abandoned en-masse in less than 10 years. It’s akin to buying an intel Mac today, when you see an obvious transition in the making, or buying a PowerPC Mac when the intel ones is right around the corner. Obviously this won’t matter if you upgrade your computer on a frequent basis, but that’s a huge waste of money imo because they’re depreciating purchases.

And it seems to me that Microsoft might be going with Apple-like update cadence with Windows 11. Windows 11 will get feature update yearly (think it as the new macOS version every year), and each update will get 24 months of support (again, similar to how Apple supports -2 versions of macOS). After seeing how Microsoft made an abrupt cutoff of processor support for Windows 11, it does make me wonder if they would even bother to support x86 in 10 years when everybody, including intel, is leaving the architecture.

I might be looking too far into the magic ball. But I don’t want to spend a lot of money today on a computer that won’t see much software support in less than 10 years. Prior to Windows 11 release, I wasn’t too worried. But the fact Microsoft made the 8th gen intel cpu as the minimum requirement for Windows 11 feels like they will be pushing more frequent PC upgrades by obsoleting the processor support, like what Apple has been doing.

It’s being made worse with the component shortages, thus making new computers more expensive than they usually were (eg now, more and more premium laptops only come with 8GB of RAM. I have to really get the upper most tier for 16GB).

In short, it feels that it’s a bad time to buy a new computer today. Maybe next year there will be better view on the trajectory of PCs, and the fact that Apple would’ve released their M2 Macs.

 

[smirking]

In short, it feels that it’s a bad time to buy a new computer today. Maybe next year there will be better view on the trajectory of PCs, and the fact that Apple would’ve released their M2 Macs.

I think we've gotten pretty spoiled over the past 12 years. The computing form factor has remained so incredibly stable despite all of the changes and advances we've seen, but just go back 15 years and we're still at the time that incompatible ports were coming and going, an input device might use USB, PS/2, or even a serial port. There were competing types of removable media and you had to read the minimum system requirements carefully when you bought new software. Then even if everything did run, you needed to upgrade every 2-4 years just so that your system could perform at an acceptable level.

Were the last 15 years the norm? Or were they the exception? What will the next 15 years look like?

I'd tend to think that we should expect similar stretches of stability that are broken up by volatile intervals and we're about to enter a volatile interval.

 

[ian87w]

I think we've gotten pretty spoiled over the past 12 years. The computing form factor has remained so incredibly stable despite all of the changes and advances we've seen, but just go back 15 years and we're still at the time that incompatible ports were coming and going, there were competing types of removable media, and some PCs wouldn't have enough RAM to run some programs. Then even if everything did run, you needed to upgrade every 2-4 years just so that your system could perform at an acceptable level.

Were the last 15 years the norm? Or were they the exception? What will the next 15 years look like?

I'd tend to think that we should expect similar stretches of stability that are broken up by volatile intervals and we're about to enter a volatile interval.

Majority of PC users have quite stable performance for their needs (eg. Office use) since, I don’t know, 1GHz processors? We can see that from how long Windows XP is supported and the minimum system requirements of Windows XP through 10. That’s a really long stretch. But sure, there are those volatile intervals, and to me it feels like today is one of those intervals, making it super difficult to justify buying a computer, especially knowing how expensive they are and what’s going on in the industry.

 

[One2Grift]

It’s not about that. I’m not hoping for some new or added feature in the future. I merely looking at software support. It’s about buying a laptop today of an architecture that could be abandoned en-masse in less than 10 years. It’s akin to buying an intel Mac today, when you see an obvious transition in the making, or buying a PowerPC Mac when the intel ones is right around the corner. Obviously this won’t matter if you upgrade your computer on a frequent basis, but that’s a huge waste of money imo because they’re depreciating purchases.

And it seems to me that Microsoft might be going with Apple-like update cadence with Windows 11. Windows 11 will get feature update yearly (think it as the new macOS version every year), and each update will get 24 months of support (again, similar to how Apple supports -2 versions of macOS). After seeing how Microsoft made an abrupt cutoff of processor support for Windows 11, it does make me wonder if they would even bother to support x86 in 10 years when everybody, including intel, is leaving the architecture.

I might be looking too far into the magic ball. But I don’t want to spend a lot of money today on a computer that won’t see much software support in less than 10 years. Prior to Windows 11 release, I wasn’t too worried. But the fact Microsoft made the 8th gen intel cpu as the minimum requirement for Windows 11 feels like they will be pushing more frequent PC upgrades by obsoleting the processor support, like what Apple has been doing.

It’s being made worse with the component shortages, thus making new computers more expensive than they usually were (eg now, more and more premium laptops only come with 8GB of RAM. I have to really get the upper most tier for 16GB).

In short, it feels that it’s a bad time to buy a new computer today. Maybe next year there will be better view on the trajectory of PCs, and the fact that Apple would’ve released their M2 Macs.

Then wait.
You're looking for the promise of the unknown. That isn't something that often keeps its promise. But do what you gotta do.

 

[ian87w]

Then wait.
You're looking for the promise of the unknown. That isn't something that often keeps its promise. But do what you gotta do.

That’s what I would probably do, holding on on what I have today. I’m just hoping there won’t be any hardware failures.

And not looking for promise of the unknown, but it would be nice for the likes of Microsoft and intel to really have proper roadmaps (or stick to what they said). I mean imagine people buying computers with intel 7th gen processors, thinking they will enjoy Windows 10 for life (that’s what Microsoft told us). Suddenly bam, Windows 11 made the hard cutoff. This is less than 5 years.

In a sense, although Apple has a harder stance on backward compatibility, at least they have a slightly more predictable roadmap of their OS support. That way there is better expectation.

But anyway, sorry for the rant. ?

 

[dmr727]

That’s what I would probably do, holding on on what I have today. I’m just hoping there won’t be any hardware failures.

I keep hanging onto my 2015 MBP. Unfortunately the whole industry seems to be moving towards a more consumable model like what we have with our phones - nobody building hardware wants guys like us hanging onto our machines for 6 years, let alone a decade.

Completely agree that a more predictable roadmap would make the purchasing decisions easier, though.

 

[skaertus]

My laptop is nearing 10-years old. Thus I'm starting to do some research on any potential new computer purchase. The problem is, I feel like currently we are in the worst time to buy a new computer. I feel that we are at the tail end of x86. And unlike phones, I expect my computer to last for around 10 years, not 4 or 5.

Problem 1: Windows 11
As expected, my Windows 10 laptop is not eligible for Windows 11 because it doesn't have a supported processor. Problem is, Microsoft drew a really harsh line on processor requirements, with minimum being 8th gen intel, which were just released in 2018. That's just three years ago. Sure, Windows 10 is supported until 2025. However, it begs the question whether an x86 computer I buy today would even be supported on a future version of Windows 5 years from now. Highly suspect. Of course, coincidentally 2018 is roughly the first batch of Snapdragon supporting Windows 10 SoCs. With Microsoft themselves doing their own ARM chips, to me Windows 11 is akin of the "Big Sur" of Windows, aka it's a telltale of Microsoft' transition to ARM, by quickly abandoning anything 4 years or older x86 processors. It really begs the question if buying a Windows computer today (which are not cheap thanks to the shortages), a good idea if the whole x86 platform is being left behind?

Problem 2: intel
We know intel's lackluster performance per watt, although they boosted their performance a bit with the 11th gen. But what if intel themselves are ditching x86? Intel is acquiring SiFive. That's a huge hint of intel themselves are transitioning. Of course, the problem for a consumer is that today, intel is still making x86 processors. But it's not a good feeling when you bought an expensive laptop, and see the processor manufacturer itself abandoning the architecture mere years after. Then you add the Windows anxiety above.

Problem 3: the rest are moving to ARM
nVidia is acquiring ARM. That's obvious. Qualcomm is doubling down on their Windows supporting SoCs. Even AMD is rumored to have ARM processors in the making. And of course, we have Apple, the first in line.

So why I think it's the worst time to buy a computer (that I want to last and supported for 10 years or so)? As a consumer, I feel:
- right now, I see expensive x86 laptops at the tail end of the architecture
- consumer ARM solutions for Windows is not yet here, so we are in a transition vacuum
- looking at Apple, also expensive, they only have the M1 ready at this point, and Apple is known to drop support of machines more aggressively

It's obvious that Microsoft's stringent Windows 11 system requirements is to nudge people to buy new computers. But as a more tech savvier consumer, now I feel that I would need to hold on to my old PCs even longer to wait for the ARM transition instead of wasting money on a dead-end x86 architecture. ? Here's hoping my laptop is not dying anytime soon.

You are absolutely right to think like this, especially if you plan to keep your next laptop for 10 years.

I tend to change laptops every 2-4 years, and I still look carefully at what I am buying.

I do not think Windows 11 will pose any major problems. Most laptops sold today will be compatible with Windows 11. My LG Gram with an 8th gen Intel processor is compatible with Windows 11, according to Microsoft.

The real problem is the processors. We are in the middle of something. Microsoft is flirting with Arm for some time now and some people knew that it would only be a matter of time. But last year Apple proved to the world that the Arm architecture was already capable of fully replacing Intel and it brought many advantages in the process. When Apple did that, it accelerated a process that was already in due course. Intel was failing year after year to deliver. Improvements between generations became subtler, and Intel failed many times to produce its 10nm process.

Qualcomm bought Nuvia and is now announcing that it is set to beat Apple's M1 (https://www.theverge.com/2021/7/2/22560967/qualcomm-apple-cristiano-amon-nuvia-laptop-processors).

Intel is preparing its 12th gen processors (Alder Lake) which will bring many improvements, especially for laptops with the adoption of both high-performance and high-efficiency CPUs. And now Intel is buying SiFive.

When Apple released the M1, the market did not stand still. Both Qualcomm and Intel, not being able to beat Apple, are making their acquisitions to make them able to compete at the same level. The result may be faster processors with much better battery life. But it may take a few years before the process is complete.

I am not buying a new computer right now. If I had to buy one, it would be some sort of placeholder until I see what happens. I will at least wait for Alder Lake to be released.

 

[Falhófnir]

While I do expect x86 to increasingly fall out of favour over this decade, possibly be gone from consumer computer models by the end of it, the giant installed base is going to mean there's a long tail of support ahead. It's not like Windows gets yearly releases that might 'drop Intel' all of a sudden like MacOS. Might you be scratching around for third party software support in years 7-8-9? quite possibly. Will you miss out on some features, most probably (though you would keeping a computer 10 years anyway). I'd go with a computer that meets your needs now, and stay put sitting out any transition, it's bound to be bumpier on the Windows side than with Macs due to the expansive size of the ecosystem.

 

[turbineseaplane]

I just updated to Windows 11 on my Hack today...and then disabled Secure Boot so that I could use my Hack side...and both sides work fine with that off.

My great hope is that some industrious person/people out there put out a way to patch Win11 and avoid the Secure Boot silliness. It's obviously a very arbitrary decision that I really hope MS walks back or ultimately provides some optionality on.

 

[Lihp8270]

Even in a decade we will still have x86.

There’s far too many professional industries relying on x86 and Windows.

 

[Sydde]

Even in a decade we will still have x86

Well, the Space Shuttle used 16-bit 8086 hardware right up until the fleet was grounded (and they were indeed finding it hard to obtain replacement parts later on), so stuff does not really die quickly and easily. There are still derivations of PPC and 68K floating around the edges. x86 will fade slowly, but the architecture has a great deal of grot in it and deserves to be phased out. It is pretty amazing that it has lasted this long.

 

[skaertus]

Even in a decade we will still have x86.

There’s far too many professional industries relying on x86 and Windows.

Yes, probably, but that does not mean that it will be the best processor available.

 

[AVonGauss]

Deleted.

 

[smirking]

Well, the Space Shuttle used 16-bit 8086 hardware right up until the fleet was grounded (and they were indeed finding it hard to obtain replacement parts later on), so stuff does not really die quickly and easily. There are still derivations of PPC and 68K floating around the edges. x86 will fade slowly, but the architecture has a great deal of grot in it and deserves to be phased out. It is pretty amazing that it has lasted this long.

And the latest Mars rover NASA landed runs on a G3 PPC chip! That really surprised me. I understood why the Space Shuttle used 16-bit PCs. They knew it worked, the software worked, and they survived past missions.

I can only deduct that we have plenty of satellites and unmanned spacecraft powered with PPC chips. Anyone know the backstory for why the Perseverance Rover uses a G3 chip?

 

[Lihp8270]

Yes, probably, but that does not mean that it will be the best processor available.

No, but the OP question was whether an x86 laptop running windows bought in 2021 would abruptly have support killed.

Not whether a different architecture will be better in 10 years than one bought today.

 

[ian87w]

Even in a decade we will still have x86.

There’s far too many professional industries relying on x86 and Windows.

Microsoft has a different policy for those markets, aka Windows LTSC, and those are on different support track than consumer/retail version of Windows. Eg. Windows 10 2019 LTSC has support until 2029.

In context of the thread, I'm referring to the consumer/retail version of Windows. And Windows 11 system requirements seem to show the new Microsoft, with more aggressive push for people to buy new PCs (might be influenced by the OEMs as well). Looking at where the industry is heading, I have a feeling that x86 would no longer be supported in 10 years in consumer market.

 

[maflynn]

I can only deduct that we have plenty of satellites and unmanned spacecraft powered with PPC chips. Anyone know the backstory for why the Perseverance Rover uses a G3 chip?

They need to use chips that can survive the perils of space, i.e., cosmic/solar radiation.

 

[skaertus]

No, but the OP question was whether an x86 laptop running windows bought in 2021 would abruptly have support killed.

Not whether a different architecture will be better in 10 years than one bought today.

You are right. The x86 architecture will be supported for the foreseeable future, regardless of what happens. But predicting the future is always hard, and pretty much anything can happen.

But it would not be very nice for any laptop buyers to find out that, in a year from now, new devices are miles ahead in both performance and efficiency, especially if such laptop buyers are willing to keep the device for so long.

 

[11235813]

Since you're doing research to buy a new laptop, I strongly encourage you to take a look at MacBook Air M1.

Dave2D nailed it in this review where he compares the M1 to a similar Windows laptop:

M1 laptops are so good, it's pointless to look at a Windows laptop unless you absolutely have to run a specific software that doesn't have a mac equivalent or can't run on Parallels emulation. M1 Air is relatively cheap, light, mind-blowingly fast, has no fan noise, doesn't get hot, has insane battery life, gorgeous screen, fantastic keyboard and trackpad. The only issue is lack of ports but it can be managed. There's nothing on the Windows side that can compete at this point.

 

[skaertus]

Microsoft has a different policy for those markets, aka Windows LTSC, and those are on different support track than consumer/retail version of Windows. Eg. Windows 10 2019 LTSC has support until 2029.

In context of the thread, I'm referring to the consumer/retail version of Windows. And Windows 11 system requirements seem to show the new Microsoft, with more aggressive push for people to buy new PCs (might be influenced by the OEMs as well). Looking at where the industry is heading, I have a feeling that x86 would no longer be supported in 10 years in consumer market.

Well, the reports of the x86 death have been greatly exaggerated.

The vast majority of computers, either laptops or desktops, being sold right now uses x86 processors. And virtually all PC laptops, running Windows, use the x86 architecture (save for very few laptops using Qualcomm chips running Windows, and which reportedly have a poor performance). Apple has already put the M1 chip in some Mac computers, and is expected to conclude the transition this year or next. But that is not an option for PCs running Windows. Both Intel and AMD use the x86 architecture and there is no alternative right now.

Yes, Qualcomm is investing heavily in making a worthy Arm-based M1 competitor to run Windows. AMD might make the transition to the Arm architecture. Even Intel could abandon its own x86 architecture in favor of Arm or something else. But none of this has happened yet.

In 2020, Intel launched Tiger Lake, the 11th generation of its processors. It is not as good as the M1 in terms of both performance and efficiency, but it is fine. When Apple launched the M1, it compared its new chip to Intel 10th generation processors. The 11th generation Intel chips are significantly faster than the 10th generation ones. The recently launched i7-1195g7 reaches 1650-1700 in Geekbench single-core speeds and 6000 in multi-core. The M1, released in November 2020, is still faster, with a 1680-1780 single-core and 6900-7800 multi-core speeds. The difference is significant, especially considering that the M1 launched some six months before the i7-1195g7, but at least Intel is putting up some fight. And the M1 is not even available for Windows PCs.

This year, Intel will launch its 12th generation (Alder Lake), which will combine high-performance and high-efficiency cores for the first time in x86 architecture. The x86 architecture will become more like Arm, and some leaks are showing that the 12th generation will have a 20% performance gain over the 11th generation in single core tasks. So, Intel is finally showing signs of a possible recovery.

Apple will surely launch the M2 this year, and it may show significant gains over the M1, putting Intel to shame again. Qualcomm may launch a worthy competitor next year. And so can AMD.

But the bottom line is that we cannot rule out the x86 architecture just yet. It is still alive, it powers some billion devices, and there is a chance it can compete with the Arm processors in the future. It is far from dead, but only the future will tell what happens. The next years will be interesting.

 

[maflynn]

Here's my $.02

- right now, I see expensive x86 laptops at the tail end of the architecture
- consumer ARM solutions for Windows is not yet here, so we are in a transition vacuum

Maybe I'm just too much of a X86 fanboy, but I really don't see ARM overtaking X86 in the window's sphere. There will be a place for ARM to be sure, but for the performance, longevity, and selection. X86 is going to be the platform for the next 10 years imo

You're right for Windows ARM is in a vacuum, so much so that X86 is not at that the tail end. We've seen how AMD is pushing the envelop on performance and power, and I'm not sold that M1/M1X will be able to hold up in terms of cpu, gpu and battery. They'll be great in one or two of those areas but not all three imo.

- looking at Apple, also expensive, they only have the M1 ready at this point, and Apple is known to drop support of machines more aggressively

For me, I'd look more at whether Macs has the software and you like working within that platform, first and then decide whether you want to roll the dice on whether its worth the risk of owning a Mac for 10 years. I say risk, because you're right, they tend to pull the trigger rather fast on dropping support

t's obvious that Microsoft's stringent Windows 11 system requirements is to nudge people to buy new computers.

Yeah, I think that is a big piece of it, but I also think it will help simplify support, that is less older/wonky drivers and software will be supported so those won't cause headaches.

I think if you're looking to get 10 years out of a machine, now is the time, simply because what ever you get today is more likely to last 10 years rather then trying to embrace a new platform that doesn't have the track record established and also buying into a gen-1 product on a new platform

 

[Falhófnir]

Even in a decade we will still have x86.

There’s far too many professional industries relying on x86 and Windows.

It probably won't ever go away 100%, and yes in enterprise it will probably linger on to some degree, maybe indefinitely, but I think for consumer computing it's no longer going to be the optimal platform going forward. Increasingly it's going to be about super sleek, thin, power efficient, cool running design focused products like the new iMac and fanless MacBook Air, or the Surface Pro X. x86 might be able to keep ahead on performance, but it seems impossible for it to match what Apple and Qualcomm are doing with thermals, and that's even before Microsoft, Google and AMD join the party with their own chips.

I was a little doubtful before about the gaming market, but with Nvidia at the core of it all now I'd say that's also a fait accompli. Nintendo's switch shows there's no significant barrier to AAA games being ported to Arm, if the hardware and market is there to be profited from. Who knows, in 2026 or so the PS6 and Xbox whatevernametheygowithnexttime might also switch architectures - to Arm or even RISC V if Intel has any success with that.

 

[skaertus]

Here's my $.02


Maybe I'm just too much of a X86 fanboy, but I really don't see ARM overtaking X86 in the window's sphere. There will be a place for ARM to be sure, but for the performance, longevity, and selection. X86 is going to be the platform for the next 10 years imo

You're right for Windows ARM is in a vacuum, so much so that X86 is not at that the tail end. We've seen how AMD is pushing the envelop on performance and power, and I'm not sold that M1/M1X will be able to hold up in terms of cpu, gpu and battery. They'll be great in one or two of those areas but not all three imo.


For me, I'd look more at whether Macs has the software and you like working within that platform, first and then decide whether you want to roll the dice on whether its worth the risk of owning a Mac for 10 years. I say risk, because you're right, they tend to pull the trigger rather fast on dropping support


Yeah, I think that is a big piece of it, but I also think it will help simplify support, that is less older/wonky drivers and software will be supported so those won't cause headaches.

I think if you're looking to get 10 years out of a machine, now is the time, simply because what ever you get today is more likely to last 10 years rather then trying to embrace a new platform that doesn't have the track record established and also buying into a gen-1 product on a new platform

Well, I do not know about Arm overtaking x86 or not. It will depend on whether Qualcomm can deliver on its promise of competing with Apple's M1, on whether Intel will be able to develop x86 to make it more competitive, and on whether AMD will chose to go the Arm route. In any case, even if x86 is overtaken, it will not be a very fast process, as the first viable Arm processors for PC will probably hit the market in 2022 or later.

I think buying a computer right now to last for 10 years is a risky move anyway. The future looks somewhat cloudy, and, while x86 will probably be supported for the next decade, we still do not know what the next 5 years will look like.