What's the OPTIMAL Macbook Pro Sell and Upgrade Schedule to Maximize Savings?

[lionfleet]

I'm trying to figure out the OPTIMAL Macbook Pro upgrade schedule that saves the most money.

I always sell my old Macbook and buy a new one so I'm only out of pocket on the difference of the cost of the new computer compared to what I sold it for.

To maximize out of pocket expenses... Do you feel it's best to upgrade every year? Every 2 years? 3?

On one hand it's a good idea to not let the Macbook Pro get too old and experience a significant value drop so selling yearly right before the next Macbook Pro comes out (or soon after launch) obviously preserves the most value.

However, does the cost of buying a new computer EVERY year and paying out of pocket on the difference of the new computer to the sale price of your old computer negate those savings... even if you're getting a sale price on your old computer?

Would buying a computer every 2 years make better sense? There would be more of a price drop in 2 years but you are only paying the new to old computer sale difference ONCE in 2 years.

Is every 3 years optimal? (I usually like to upgrade every 2 years to get the new tech)

I have a M1 Max. I got busy and haven't jumped the gun on getting the M2 Max yet. Deciding if I want to grab it now to maximize savings (I'm late to selling my current M1 Max) or if I should wait for the M3.

Does anybody have any insight on this?
I remember seeing a thread on this a while back but can't find it.

 

[h.gilbert]

You can go on eBay and filter by sold to see what Macbooks for a certain year sell for

 

[nathan_reilly]

I don't think there is a set schedule. Remember when apple was releasing kinda not-so-desirable MacBook Pros? 2 years old machines were holding their value a bit better. And now those not-so-desirable Macbook Pros are holding their value particularly poorly imo (or perhaps commensurate to their quality!).

 

[gpat]

Every generation makes its own history.
I lost my M1P in a car theft, the M2P had just came out when it happened, and the enhancements were so insignificant to me that I decided to save some money and get another M1P.
The M1P release was so good that it might be worth keeping until end of life. For me, an upgrade towards M2P wouldn't even be worth pocket money, but it's just my perspective.
M3P could be a sweet spot to upgrade if your warranty expires, but you won't be seeing that until late 2024, giving you a very honest 3 year lifecycle. Or you could hold onto your M1P until the next major design upgrade and reap more benefits all at once.
Other releases, like the 16" Intel or the atrocious 2016-2019, just screwed you regardless of your upgrade cycle. The M1P is the exact opposite, you win no matter what you do because the machine is just so good.

 

[nathan_reilly]

Here's a fun way I've looked at it before:

Let's say you spent $3000 on your Mac. Average cost of a cup of coffee in US, according to NPD/WSJ in August 2022 was $4.90, so lets say $5 for easy math. And we assume you drink a cup every day, and you never make it at home.

After owning your Mac for 600 days or 1.64 years, you are spending the same amount daily as you spend on coffee.

All of my Macs, iPhones, iPods & iPads in my life have sunk below the $1/day threshold. That's a good value to me.

 

[pshufd]

Here's a fun way I've looked at it before:

Let's say you spent $3000 on your Mac. Average cost of a cup of coffee in US, according to NPD/WSJ in August 2022 was $4.90, so lets say $5 for easy math. And we assume you drink a cup every day, and you never make it at home.

After owning your Mac for 600 days or 1.64 years, you are spending the same amount daily as you spend on coffee.

All of my Macs, iPhones, iPods & iPads in my life have sunk below the $1/day threshold. That's a good value to me.

We use instant and K-cups. K-cups are about $0.30 per cup and instant is about $0.07 a cup.

My MacBook Pros typically get 10 years of use. My 2014 MacBook Pro is still fine (loaned out to a family member) and I'm using a 2021 MacBook Pro. I usually maintain a current and an older model as a backup. The M1 Pro MacBook Pro - I could see easily lasting 10 years. Will it meet my needs for the next 8 years? I don't know but I sized it so that it should be fine for at least 5. I expect a longer usable life from it because it has much better thermals than my previous MacBook Pros.

 

[nathan_reilly]

We use instant and K-cups. K-cups are about $0.30 per cup and instant is about $0.07 a cup.

My MacBook Pros typically get 10 years of use. My 2014 MacBook Pro is still fine (loaned out to a family member) and I'm using a 2021 MacBook Pro. I usually maintain a current and an older model as a backup. The M1 Pro MacBook Pro - I could see easily lasting 10 years. Will it meet my needs for the next 8 years? I don't know but I sized it so that it should be fine for at least 5. I expect a longer usable life from it because it has much better thermals than my previous MacBook Pros.

Okaaaaay, Mr. K-cup the point is to consider amortizing the cost of the computer over a reasonable period of ownership instead of looking at resale value when new features come out & trying to come up with a generic formula for optimal resale.

-Typed on a 2012 Mac Pro that has cost me about $1 a day and serves my full time 3D modeling, rendering and virtualization needs perfectly. I run Solidworks in a VM and Fusion360/Keyshot in MacOS on an 11 year old machine with two 30 inch Cinemas!

 

[pshufd]

Okaaaaay, Mr. K-cup the point is to consider amortizing the cost of the computer over a reasonable period of ownership instead of looking at resale value when new features come out & trying to come up with a generic formula for optimal resale.

-Typed on a 2012 Mac Pro that has cost me about $1 a day and serves my full time 3D modeling, rendering and virtualization needs perfectly. I run Solidworks in a VM and Fusion360/Keyshot in MacOS on an 11 year old machine with two 30 inch Cinemas!

The oldest system I use regularly is a 2010 iMac 27 i7, 32 GB RAM that I bought for $100.

The main downside of older systems is power consumption and, with the huge increase in electricity costs, it starts to become a factor. I received a message from a user in Europe that said that the power savings of Apple Silicon over his old desktop Mac would be several hundred Euros per year. They have insane electricity prices over there though. I think about three times our prices (which doubled last summer).

 

[eltoslightfoot]

Okaaaaay, Mr. K-cup the point is to consider amortizing the cost of the computer over a reasonable period of ownership instead of looking at resale value when new features come out & trying to come up with a generic formula for optimal resale.

-Typed on a 2012 Mac Pro that has cost me about $1 a day and serves my full time 3D modeling, rendering and virtualization needs perfectly. I run Solidworks in a VM and Fusion360/Keyshot in MacOS on an 11 year old machine with two 30 inch Cinemas!

Their way of looking at it is valid also. If you buy a decent M1P new for $1599 and then sell it two years later for $1099, and then take that $1099 and buy a new one for $1599, then you have a new one and the difference was only $500 (plus the initial investment). So over time, you can have the latest and greatest for only the difference.

The problem is that due to inflation, the new and used markets have tanked completely. You can get new machines so cheap right now that used ones are absolutely cratering.

All that said, your way is WAY more cost effective (weird coffee example aside as most people figure out a cheaper way than Starbucks every single day). If I buy that same $1599 Mac and use it for ten years, I paid $159.90 per year. Not bad at all.

In the same example, I paid $1599, plus upgraded five times for a total loss of $2500 (theoretically). That is WAY more per year.

Also, you have to deal with Ebay or Swappa every couple of years. It’s not fun.

 

[Analog Kid]

I'm trying to figure out the OPTIMAL Macbook Pro upgrade schedule that saves the most money.

I always sell my old Macbook and buy a new one so I'm only out of pocket on the difference of the cost of the new computer compared to what I sold it for.

To maximize out of pocket expenses... Do you feel it's best to upgrade every year? Every 2 years? 3?

On one hand it's a good idea to not let the Macbook Pro get too old and experience a significant value drop so selling yearly right before the next Macbook Pro comes out (or soon after launch) obviously preserves the most value.

However, does the cost of buying a new computer EVERY year and paying out of pocket on the difference of the new computer to the sale price of your old computer negate those savings... even if you're getting a sale price on your old computer?

Would buying a computer every 2 years make better sense? There would be more of a price drop in 2 years but you are only paying the new to old computer sale difference ONCE in 2 years.

Is every 3 years optimal? (I usually like to upgrade every 2 years to get the new tech)

I have a M1 Max. I got busy and haven't jumped the gun on getting the M2 Max yet. Deciding if I want to grab it now to maximize savings (I'm late to selling my current M1 Max) or if I should wait for the M3.

Does anybody have any insight on this?
I remember seeing a thread on this a while back but can't find it.

Since your only guidance here is wanting to save money, I'd guess optimal means simply minimizing the out of pocket expense. Buy once and use it forever.

I upgraded my last one after 8 years, but could have kept it longer.

To maximize out of pocket expenses...

That's harder to do. See: Brewsters Millions.

 

[pshufd]

Since your only guidance here is wanting to save money, I'd guess optimal means simply minimizing the out of pocket expense. Buy once and use it forever.

I upgraded my last one after 8 years, but could have kept it longer.



That's harder to do. See: Brewsters Millions.

There are lots of people that earn their living off their Macs. In their case, you want to maximize total return.

 

[Analog Kid]

There are lots of people that earn their living off their Macs. In their case, you want to maximize total return.

Total return of what? If the only guidance is to minimize out-of-pocket, then buy one and be done. A lot of people making a living off their Mac don't need the minor performance boosts every year, some do. There's some talk about power consumption in the thread, is that a constraint?

OPTIMIZING, which I think is the same as optimizing but louder, means finding a tradeoff among constraints toward a specific goal. At the moment the goal presented is lowest cost, which makes optimization a simple minimization.

 

[pshufd]

Total return of what? If the only guidance is to minimize out-of-pocket, then buy one and be done. A lot of people making a living off their Mac don't need the minor performance boosts every year, some do. There's some talk about power consumption in the thread, is that a constraint?

OPTIMIZING, which I think is the same as optimizing but louder, means finding a tradeoff among constraints toward a specific goal. At the moment the goal presented is lowest cost, which makes optimization a simple minimization.

Total return as in income potential minus costs.

Total return is if you buy something that's underpowered and then have to add hardware shortly thereafter to get to where you can get more work done in the same amount of time. There are lots of use cases where more horsepower is needed but not available.

 

[lionfleet]

Awesome responses. Thank you so much.

Clarification: The max I'd probably want to wait is 3 years to upgrade just so I can get the latest tech for video editing.

So I'm trying to maximize re-sale and upgrade within a 3 year time span. So my question is more... is every 1, 2, or 3 years ideal?

 

[eltoslightfoot]

Awesome responses. Thank you so much.

Clarification: The max I'd probably want to wait is 3 years to upgrade just so I can get the latest tech for video editing.

So I'm trying to maximize re-sale and upgrade within a 3 year time span. So my question is more... is every 1, 2, or 3 years ideal?

The longer the better is my bet. So three years in this case.

 

[JPack]

The optimal schedule is to use it until it no longer works.

We don't know how much you value performance. Each generation of M-series processors offers different levels of performance. Then you have X-factors such as flexgate and butterfly keyboard. As a result, we can't possibly tell you the best schedule.

You're basically asking us to solve a multivariable equation with only one known factor.

 

[JamesMay82]

Total return of what? If the only guidance is to minimize out-of-pocket, then buy one and be done. A lot of people making a living off their Mac don't need the minor performance boosts every year, some do. There's some talk about power consumption in the thread, is that a constraint?

OPTIMIZING, which I think is the same as optimizing but louder, means finding a tradeoff among constraints toward a specific goal. At the moment the goal presented is lowest cost, which makes optimization a simple minimization.

I agree.

I don’t understand the people who use the “new machine will save me time and earn more money upgrade scenario”

In principle they are correct but I’ve yet to meet anyone who is that efficient with their time if they are honest.. more likely they can get an extra game of solitaire with the increased performance 😂

 

[nathan_reilly]

OPTIMIZING, which I think is the same as optimizing but louder…

My guy, this is why I log on! Keep on being awesome and never settle.

 

[nathan_reilly]

I agree.

I don’t understand the people who use the “new machine will save me time and earn more money upgrade scenario”

In principle they are correct but I’ve yet to meet anyone who is that efficient with their time if they are honest.. more likely they can get an extra game of solitaire with the increased performance 😂

And in this case, new (Mac) machine means I still need a way to run solidworks! My 2012 Mac Pro is still worth maintaining in my eyes.

 

[pshufd]

I agree.

I don’t understand the people who use the “new machine will save me time and earn more money upgrade scenario”

In principle they are correct but I’ve yet to meet anyone who is that efficient with their time if they are honest.. more likely they can get an extra game of solitaire with the increased performance 😂

The case made most frequently is video editing and throughput. But I assume that other creative work which involves considerable rendering time is similar.

I used to use Exadata systems. Why would anyone need a couple hundred cores, 1+ TB of RAM and 1K TB of SSD storage?

 

[nathan_reilly]

The case made most frequently is video editing and throughput. But I assume that other creative work which involves considerable rendering time is similar.

I used to use Exadata systems. Why would anyone need a couple hundred cores, 1+ TB of RAM and 1K TB of SSD storage?

I will say that my Mac Pro has the max cpu I could use and my render program (Keyshot) would run faster with more cores. I have 12 and it will take several days to do an animation but I just save those for the weekend! And I can always work on my laptop as the Mac Pro hammers away. I don’t see m-series macs doing that great in Keyshot unfortunately.

 

[MacProFCP]

I'm trying to figure out the OPTIMAL Macbook Pro upgrade schedule that saves the most money.

I always sell my old Macbook and buy a new one so I'm only out of pocket on the difference of the cost of the new computer compared to what I sold it for.

To maximize out of pocket expenses... Do you feel it's best to upgrade every year? Every 2 years? 3?

On one hand it's a good idea to not let the Macbook Pro get too old and experience a significant value drop so selling yearly right before the next Macbook Pro comes out (or soon after launch) obviously preserves the most value.

However, does the cost of buying a new computer EVERY year and paying out of pocket on the difference of the new computer to the sale price of your old computer negate those savings... even if you're getting a sale price on your old computer?

Would buying a computer every 2 years make better sense? There would be more of a price drop in 2 years but you are only paying the new to old computer sale difference ONCE in 2 years.

Is every 3 years optimal? (I usually like to upgrade every 2 years to get the new tech)

I have a M1 Max. I got busy and haven't jumped the gun on getting the M2 Max yet. Deciding if I want to grab it now to maximize savings (I'm late to selling my current M1 Max) or if I should wait for the M3.

Does anybody have any insight on this?
I remember seeing a thread on this a while back but can't find it.

It has been my experience with MacPros and other pro machines, that the best resale value is every other iteration. I would skip on the M2 and wait for the M3. Your M1 Max should still be worth 25% or more of it's original value and you'll get a solid 2-3 years.

 

[Fishrrman]

Q:
"What's the OPTIMAL Macbook Pro Sell and Upgrade Schedule to Maximize Savings?"

A:
32 weeks and 6 days...

(I still have my 2010 MacBook Pro sitting around...)

 

[Timpetus]

I'm still rocking a 2016 and the machine before that was a 2008 MBP. Every 8 years seems to be where I'm landing, and I usually buy a 1-2 year old machine after the price drop from a refresh. I purchased the 2016 in 2018 when it was on sale, and the 2008 in 2009 IIRC. It's amazing how long Mac laptops stay usable. My wife's iMac gets upgraded more frequently, as she does need it to run her business and editing photos goes faster when you've got a more recent Mac with all the RAM you can throw at it.

 

[dmccloud]

Awesome responses. Thank you so much.

Clarification: The max I'd probably want to wait is 3 years to upgrade just so I can get the latest tech for video editing.

So I'm trying to maximize re-sale and upgrade within a 3 year time span. So my question is more... is every 1, 2, or 3 years ideal?

Hard to give a timeframe in terms of years when we still don't have a regular update schedule for Apple Silicon Macs. Perhaps generations would be better in this case. With that being said, I used the trade-in calculator to estimate the trade-in values for similarly configured machines from 2021, 2020, and mid-2020 (last Intel models). Here are the trade-in values I got:


2021: $875
2020: $655
Mid-2020 (Intel): $510

Now here's where things get interesting. Assuming the MBP cost $1200 when new, that translates into the following "losses" (out of pocket costs) when trading in these machines:

2021: $325
2020: $545
Mid-2020: $690

Assuming you look at this over a six-year timespan (the one point where a 1, 2, or 3 year upgrade cycle all match back up), you get the following total out of pocket costs:

1 year interval: $1950 ($325 x 6)
2 year interval: $1635 ($545 x 3)
3 year interval: $1380 ($690 x 2)

So while upgrading annually presents a lower out of pocket cost in the moment due to higher trade-in values, over the span of several years it actually becomes the most expensive option. Meanwhile, the three year upgrade cycle saves almost $600 in out of pocket costs compared to the annual option.


As far as external costs associated with upgrading your systems (such as productivity costs, time, etc.), that's something only the person looking at their options for upgrading could decide.