Of course, none of that takes into account the many times the federal government takes money from Social Security to pay for other things.
The mistake is the SS money should not go into general funds and should be completely separate off. Untouchable funds for general usage.
Issue is ss money is lumped under general revenue and spent as such.
Typically, the Social Security Trust Fund is kept separate; however, Congress has at various points raided it.
There are many problems with Social Security, mostly created by politicians against the advice of the Social Security trustees.
But, this is not one of them. Every dime "taken from Social Security" has been accounted for in the trust fund. The excess revenue collected by Social Security was
loaned to the general fund, in the form of a long-term US Treasury Bond created for that purpose.
They are a bit different than a US Treasury Bond you might have bought for yourself, but the obligation is the same. They actually exist in paper form, in a file cabinet in West Virginia -- not really relevant, but I always thought it was fun piece of trivia.
If you are wondering why Social Security bought the equivalent of US Treasury Bonds instead of something with a better return: until recently, it was considered the safest long-term investment in the world. And, one can only imagine all the restrictions that Congress would have imposed on any investment in the private sector: it would have been a huge "political football".
I don't remember the exact year, but around 2013, Social Security expenditures for "old age and survivor benefits" started to exceed the revenue collected. It had been projected to begin in 2016, but the recession led to a wave of early retirements and reduction of wages.
At that point, trust fund redemptions began. The bonds are being cashed in, and paid out of general revenue. The net effect has been to convert them into regular US Treasury Bonds sold to private investors and public pension funds, as long as there is a net deficit in the general fund.
This will continue until the Trust Fund is exhausted. So, the federal government will pay back every dime that it borrowed, with interest. The problem is that the Trust Fund is expected to be exhausted around 2033. After that, Social Security revenue is projected to only meet about 75% of the current projected benefits. By law, Social Security benefits must be reduced to a level that meets the incoming revenue.
How it got this way is a longer discussion. But, it really comes down to this: all parties have have put their heads in the sand, for too long. The problems have been known for a long time, but no one wanted to make the hard choices. The opportunity has passed to solve the problems without a lot of pain, and every month that it is delayed will just make the pain worse.