Why won’t we get a V2 next year?

[borka105]

Everywhere I read people seem to think it will take 2-3 years before Apple ships a V2 version of AVP.

Why is that?

Outside of accessory devices (e.g. AirPods Max, HomePod) I think Apple typically has updated their main hardware annually especially with a fast follow for Gen 1 devices (Apple Watch, iPad, iPhone, etc.).

I really enjoyed the features of AVP, but the device was too heavy for me to use for more than 20-30 min before my face was in pain so I decided to return it.

I’ll rebuy in a heartbeat if they somehow lighten the device… but I hope I don’t need to wait 2-3 years on the sidelines before experiencing immersive content again.

 

[Lobwedgephil]

New product, new category, for Apple. Maybe next year, maybe not. The longer timeframe probably based on VR history.

 

[zakarhino]

Because the areas of improvement apparent in gen 1 probably can't be solved by next year besides more compute power but that might not be a substantial enough change to warrant a new generation. Apple's decision making process for releasing a new generation of hardware is probably based on how long they can keep a generation on sale without it becoming stale relative to competitors. That's just theory, nobody really knows. Maybe improved passthrough, the M3/M4, and shaving 50-75 grams is enough to call it a new generation by next year.

Ideally what I want from gen 2 is significantly reduced glare, increased resolution (retina level), and significantly improved passthrough.

 

[nfl46]

I doubt a V2 next year. I’m sure Apple is taking the feedback from V1 serious and will try to drastically improve on revision 2. The processing power is still good for v1. They need to focus on software improvements and developers need to boost the App Store. Maybe a late 2025 announcement but early 2026 release.

 

[Ghost31]

Because they can’t make a substantial enough update in only a year. This is bleeding edge technology. Most of where we need them to build upon anyway is a bare bones version 1 operating system. Software updates will be where the hardware shines.

Probably 2 years. Then what we know of as Vision Pro will be vision cheaper, followed by a new Vision Pro with more features.

Face ID comes to iPhone pro. Then next year goes go regular basic iPhones. Same deal

 

[Jony Ive]

It took them +7 years to make the AVP how it is
They're not going to magically solve every pain point in 1 year, if they could, they also coud've done it for this year or just delay the launch 1 year

 

[surferfb]

I’m sure Apple has a a pretty good idea of what and when will be released, but I’d expect they want feedback from AVP being out in the wild, and design decisions often need to be made over a year in advance.

 

[klasma]

The first iPad sold 15 million units in its first year. The first Watch sold similar numbers. The AVP will likely be less than 5% of that. Even factoring in the higher price, it will take longer to recoup R&D costs.

At the same time, the AVP's tech is more difficult to move forward. A faster or more efficient SoC, maybe a slight weight reduction, details like stronger light seal magnets, a battery cable that doesn’t twist as easily, yes. But it’s unlikely they can increase the resolution and display size (larger FOV), significantly improve the pass-through quality, solve the glare issue, or make the headset much lighter, within a year.

 

[tobyringle69]

Agree, no V2 in the next year. Will take at least a year to get V1 released worldwide. I agree with most, it's very uncomfortable....but it does everything so well. In the meantime, I am trying all sorts of mods to find an ideal solution to make wearing this thing more comfortable. Im confident 3rd party mfg will come up with something. Etsy has been a great source for cost effective first attempts.

 

[Abazigal]

We really won't know Apple's planned update cycle at this point.

On one hand, I can already think of a number of updates that could quickly go into a V2.0 (better cameras for improved passthrough, M3 chip, rethinking the weight distribution). On the other hand, rumours point to the dual 4k screens being the bottleneck in production, and Apple may want to wait for supply to catch up before releasing a more mainstream version for the masses to hop onto. Till then, Apple will probably just try to fix what they can via software updates.

 

[Stevenyo]

Everywhere I read people seem to think it will take 2-3 years before Apple ships a V2 version of AVP.

Why is that?

Outside of accessory devices (e.g. AirPods Max, HomePod) I think Apple typically has updated their main hardware annually especially with a fast follow for Gen 1 devices (Apple Watch, iPad, iPhone, etc.).

I really enjoyed the features of AVP, but the device was too heavy for me to use for more than 20-30 min before my face was in pain so I decided to return it.

I’ll rebuy in a heartbeat if they somehow lighten the device… but I hope I don’t need to wait 2-3 years on the sidelines before experiencing immersive content again.

Realistically, there’s only minor hardware improvements to be made until an optical pass through version is viable, which will be the real game changer. Re-doing R&D even to a small degree for such a small volume device just to get a few percentage points better efficiency just doesn’t make a lot of sense.
Based on what’s already out there, I can’t imagine it will take Apple more than ~3 years to get 100 degree FOV and 4k+ panels into a magic leap glasses style device, at which point it’s worth putting out new hardware, a true ARheadset at less than half the weight.

AVP today is a software SDK for the future AR platform, there’s no real reason to push the hardware specs annually when the goal seems to be miniaturizing and improving the same amount of compute power into an actual daily drivable AR glasses system.

That being said, I’d love to be wrong and see constant updates to hardware, a later 2025 AVP2 with M4 chip, IR floodlights to enable “night vision” as a feature and an included fully functional TB/USB port would be a nice stepping stone, just not sure the R&D is justifiable when the end result is still a 600+ gram dev kit/proof of concept for developers to prepare for the future sub 300 gram glasses style device that isn’t that much of a technical leap over the Magic Leap 2 that was announced nearly 3 years ago.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

The first iPad sold 15 million units in its first year. The first Watch sold similar numbers. The AVP will likely be less than 5% of that. Even factoring in the higher price, it will take longer to recoup R&D costs.

The rumor has been consistent that there is only so many that can be made. The number I've seen most is 400K units, though I've seen a few posts suggesting up to about 800K and maybe even 1M. So yes, it certainly will sell less than many millions of units because Apple allegedly can't deliver more than some fixed amount probably below 1M even if the price was multiplied many times.

When we ignore that very apparent truth and then sling around comments like that, we are simply showing our own bias. If a company is able to sell 100% of all they can make of something, they are very likely to consider whatever that is a roaring success. Best I know Apple has never sold out of iPad or Watch... but they will probably sell all 400K or 800K or 1M Vpros they can make this year.

On a relative basis, this will lose unit count contests because- among other things- it is also priced many times iPad or Watch. As prices rise, demand generally falls. Thus, it SHOULD sell in less volume than much cheaper offerings... as it is rare to roll out a new-but-comparable anything at many times the price of similar things and realize much greater sales. After all, almost ALL of the "million apps" that run on Vpro run on one of those much cheaper iPads too.

A better comparison (reflecting less bias) might be to pit it against other Apple products in that general price area... like Mac Studio Ultra and more loaded MBpros... and of course, giving it a comparable amount of time vs. measuring only 2 weeks of sales against upwards of a couple of years of Studio Ultra or approx. $3500 MBs.

 

[klasma]

The rumor has been consistent that there is only so many that can be made. The number I've seen most is 400K units, though I've seen a few posts suggesting up to about 800K and maybe even 1M. So yes, it certainly will sell less than many millions of units because Apple allegedly can't deliver more than some fixed amount probably below 1M even if the price was multiplied many times.

It doesn’t matter whether that “low” unit count is merely due to artificial limitation, with regard to whether it makes economical sense to release a v2 after just one year.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I agree with you on the best guess of no version 2 next year. My gut guess is that this will update at about AppleTV or iPad Mini pace. OS evolutions will "keep it fresh" over the next year or two. It appears there is PLENTY of room in software to keep making this thing seem new(er) before hardware upgrades are needed.

 

[turbineseaplane]

Here's a good explainer
Could be a long wait for any updates outside of software

Probably boosts the chances of some refurbs ... but are many more people really that interested at $2999 vs $3499?
(assuming normal 15% refurb discount)

 

[Niacchus]

I think it's important to remember that while the Vision Pro was released this month, the design was finished in time for the announcement last June. 7 months ago... Work would have been done during that time on V2...

I think we will see v2 in 18mths time. In time for holiday season next year.

 

[Tagbert]

I think it's important to remember that while the Vision Pro was released this month, the design was finished in time for the announcement last June. 7 months ago... Work would have been done during that time on V2...

I think we will see v2 in 18mths time. In time for holiday season next year.

That is constant with the pattern for the iPad and there are a lot of similarities between the AVP and the iPad.

 

[Gleipnir]

As I recall, the Apple Watch wasn't updated once a year in the beginning. I mean the original one, not series 1.

 

[HDFan]

Marques Brownlee speculated that it would be at least a 2 year upgrade cycle in one of his videos.

If the VP were primarily computer bound then an upgrade might make sense as new Apple Silicon Chips come out. However the existing M2 seems to be providing sufficient computing power so not much value in an upgrade. A much improved R1 might be important but so far it seems to be doing its job just fine.

Significant changes in the other included technologies - cameras, sensors, displays, etc. would likely be the driving factor. I suspect that it will take a couple of years before the improvements are significant enough with these other technologies for a new Pro model.

 

[Jim Lahey]

Anything planned for volume production next year would probably already be designed. Seems very unlikely for a device of this type. Doubtless there’s a planned strategy of incremental improvements but honestly at this stage it’s not certain in my mind that there will even be a gen 2.

 

[borka105]

What if V2 was purely a lighter device, but no change to hardware specs/ power? As a day 1 buyer the biggest issue is how heavy/ uncomfortable this thing is and not what it’s capable of. I am unable to enjoy all it can do because it’s so darn heavy and clearly Apple has not nailed how to make it comfortable since it needs to offer 17 fit permutations.

Give me the iPad 2 “light” version of the iPad 1 and I’ll rebuy right away.

 

[darthbane2k]

Don’t think we’ll see a v2 for two years. The rest of this year will be dedicated to launching worldwide and collecting feedback, we may see a significant price cut in a years time but nothing more than that for now.

 

[Tagbert]

What if V2 was purely a lighter device, but no change to hardware specs/ power? As a day 1 buyer the biggest issue is how heavy/ uncomfortable this thing is and not what it’s capable of. I am unable to enjoy all it can do because it’s so darn heavy and clearly Apple has not nailed how to make it comfortable since it needs to offer 17 fit permutations.

Give me the iPad 2 “light” version of the iPad 1 and I’ll rebuy right away.

Would that be the Vision Air?

 

[Macaholic868]

There are a few reasons. The first is price. You’re not going to see prices come down on many of the components in the device in a meaningful way in a year. Two to three years is enough time for the manufacturers who are making certain custom components for the device to refine and improve their manufacturing process to increase the yield rates which well help to make the product more affordable and as technology improves for those non-custom components prices will come down in that department as well. If Apple wants this thing to begin to become more mainstream it has to figure out a way to cut the $3,500 price tag plus the cost of Apple Care in half or very close to it.

The next has to do with needed improvements to VisionOS. There are a lot of holes and with WWDC only a few months away I don’t see Apple having the kind of time to fill all of those holes in v2.0 of VisionOS but they should have time to fix most of the issues by the time VisionOS 3.0 is out.

The same is true for apps. Very few developers were given a device prior to the AVP launch date to develop their apps on and even the special developer sessions they held were limited in terms of the locations where they were held so Apple didn’t really do themselves any favors with most developers in terms of giving them what they needed to have their apps available at launch. Juno, one of the most popular apps that is being used to consume You Tube content because there is no You Tube app yet and Google didn’t allow the iPad based version to be used with the device, was created by a developer who didn’t have early access to a device at all. The first version that was a available on launch day was written by somebody who only had the SDK to work with. It’s going to take time for developers to produce apps since most were only able to get hardware on the same launch day as everybody else. Plus you’ve still got a large chunk of developers who are sitting on the fence to makes sure the device isn’t a flop before they put financial resources into writing apps for it and I can’t blame them. If you need to write apps to put food on the table waiting makes sense. When some who were on the fence inevitably decide to take the plunge they’ll need time as well so again, I think we’re looking at a two to three year window before the App Library is as robust as it needs to be to entice consumers on a mass scale.

Perhaps I’m mistaken and Apple plans on coming out with a new version that is still under the Pro moniker without the kind of cost savings I think they will ultimately need but in my view it makes little sense to do that. You’ll tick off those who spent $3,500 on the original product and will have done too little to improve the price enough to produce something with broad appeal. In my view they’ll hold off and when generation 2 is ready there will be two models. A more expensive Vision Pro v2.0 aimed at pro’s and an Apple Vision that is less expense, has less high end functionality but that appeals to a much wider audience thanks to a much lower price than the Vision Pro line.

 

[TechnoMonk]

The first iPad sold 15 million units in its first year. The first Watch sold similar numbers. The AVP will likely be less than 5% of that. Even factoring in the higher price, it will take longer to recoup R&D costs.

At the same time, the AVP's tech is more difficult to move forward. A faster or more efficient SoC, maybe a slight weight reduction, details like stronger light seal magnets, a battery cable that doesn’t twist as easily, yes. But it’s unlikely they can increase the resolution and display size (larger FOV), significantly improve the pass-through quality, solve the glare issue, or make the headset much lighter, within a year.

iPhone sold only 1.39 million units in 2007. I can see similar yield issues compared to gen1 . Ipad already had most of the components due to iPhone manufacturing lines. AVP unfortunately uses different components compared to iPhone or iPad.