Yearly Upgrades of M-series Chips

[4087258]

Given the recent rumors on Apple releasing the M3 chip at the same time as M3 Pro and M3 Max, I believe this indicates that Apple is going to upgrade the M-series chips on a yearly basis from now on. Yearly upgrades may give Apple a continuum leading on benchmarks on any given quarter, as Intel may not be able to have the lead because of it’s current yearly generations.

Let’s talk about that.

EDIT: I’m sorry if this topic wasn’t a good topic for you; it’s just a share of opinions and excitement. Be kind!

 

[donth8]

That might be their plan but it is completely dependent on TSMC delivering node improvements on time.

 

[amarcus]

Assuming Apple’s going for a yearly cadence for the M series of chips, that makes the rather modest generational gains in performance far more impressive. It also means that Qualcomms recently announced X elite would be competing against the M4!

 

[4087258]

And about Intel, I think that it’s interesting how the 14th-generation had such a relatively small gain on performance compared to the 13th-generation.

Apple‘s M3 family may show much better results.

 

[picpicmac]

Given the recent rumors on Apple releasing the M3 chip at the same time as M3 Pro and M3 Max

Well, what if Apple just debuts a single chip, say an "M3 Pro", in three different products:
MBP 14"
MBP 16"
iMac 24"

??

I am not convinced at all that Apple will reveal a large suite of new products. Just a few, to emphasize a key capability.

And yes, the time of the presentation coincides with the beginning of the work day in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, PRC, etc. All of which suggests to me (and others) that there could be tie-in with other companies.

 

[4087258]

Also, I think there’s a high demand for neural processing (without the cloud), and it may lead to stronger needs of machine updates sooner than we’ve thought it would be.

 

[4087258]

And yes, the time of the presentation coincides with the beginning of the work day in Japan, Korea, Taiwan, PRC, etc.

Interesting fact. Do you think the iMac may stick with the M2? That could maintain the (almost) 2 year upgrade pattern.

 

[vigilant]

Apple will move at as aggressive cadence where they need. M2 was a marginal stop gap. Whether that was part of their plan, who knows. But the increased speed fits within the margins of what Intel does. I have no desire to upgrade from my M1 Max to an M2 Max. M3 Max? Maybe.

Most people don’t upgrade their computers every year.

I expect M3 to be a bigger leap.

 

[4087258]

Most people don’t upgrade their computers every year.

I think AI could change that scenario. I Agree with the rest.

 

[4087258]

It also means that Qualcomms recently announced X elite would be competing against the M4!

Well said. The expected launch date is mid-2024; that means it’s already too far from the M2 which was exhaustively used for comparison by Qualcomm itself just a few days ago.

 

[IG88]

That might be their plan but it is completely dependent on TSMC delivering node improvements on time.

M1: November 10, 2020
(19 months)
M2: June 24, 2022
(16 months)
M3: October 30, 2023 (maybe)

It isn't yearly.

 

[JPack]

Does OP math?

 

[4087258]

It isn't yearly.

Until now. Apple is rumored to launch MacBook Pro updates and an iMac upgrade on next week.

 

[4087258]

Does OP math?

Sorry; I didn’t understand what you mean…

 

[theorist9]

I think Apple's intention was to synchronize the updates of its M-series chips with those of its A-series chips, i.e., to update them annually, since both are based on the same architecture. They've not been able to do that yet because of supply chain disruptions, and because the M-series chips are new. But I think they'll do that eventually. They won't always be on a new process each year (that depends on TSMC), but they will always be on a new architecture, same as the A-series.

 

[4087258]

They've not been able to do that yet because of supply chain disruptions, and because the M-series chips are new.

I was thinking the same. Apple launched the silicon on a complicated period, and also I think they tried to be careful in the first years until there was a complete and solid transition.

 

[eldho]

If there is a full suite of M3 chips launched at the event then I think a yearly cadence is very likely from now on.

 

[JustAnExpat]

I feel this is a massive assumption that M3s will be released in the next few days. I believe it's going to be the M2s. Computers (and cell phones, and smart watches, and tablets) are now in the "replaceable" category for most users. Most people won't upgrade because there's a new chip, but will upgrade if their old system physically breaks.

Of course, people who use Macs to make movies, music, etc., for money will benefit from a new, faster, chip, but that I think most people simply buy computers for "casual" purposes.

 

[theorist9]

If there is a full suite of M3 chips launched at the event then I think a yearly cadence is very likely from now on.

Gurman says it will be M3/M3 Pro/M3 Max only, so no M3 Ultra. Don't know if he's right, but an M3 Ultra would be surprising.

 

[theorist9]

I feel this is a massive assumption that M3s will be released in the next few days. I believe it's going to be the M2s. Computers (and cell phones, and smart watches, and tablets) are now in the "replaceable" category for most users. Most people won't upgrade because there's a new chip, but will upgrade if their old system physically breaks.

Of course, people who use Macs to make movies, music, etc., for money will benefit from a new, faster, chip, but that I think most people simply buy computers for "casual" purposes.

Given that Apple titled the event "Scary Fast"—which is pretty on-the-nose for them; as you know, their event titles are typically cryptic—I'm guessing we will be seeing M3's. And perhaps even M3's with boosted clocks.

 

[4087258]

Gurman says it will be M3/M3 Pro/M3 Max only, so no M3 Ultra. Don't know if he's right, but an M3 Ultra would be surprising.

I think the M3 Ultra may arrive in March or April alongside an upgraded M3 MacBook Air and an upgraded Mac Mini.

 

[midkay]

Until now. Apple is rumored to launch MacBook Pro updates and an iMac upgrade on next week.

What does that have anything to do with anything? The poster you quoted correctly pointed out M1, M2 and M3 chips are so far about 16-18 months apart. That is not yearly, it's about 1.5 years. If MBP and iMac updates come next week, that's still not yearly, it's still about 1.5 years. Your thesis is simply wrong.

 

[4087258]

What does that have anything to do with anything? The poster you quoted correctly pointed out M1, M2 and M3 chips are so far about 16-18 months apart. That is not yearly, it's about 1.5 years. If MBP and iMac updates come next week, that's still not yearly, it's still about 1.5 years. Your thesis is simply wrong.

I understand your point of view, but M1 and M2 had a two frame launching because the base M chip came before the advanced M variants.

This time we may see the M3, M3 Pro and M3 Max at the same time, suggesting that it’s not a two frame launching anymore: it’s an unified synchronized development for all the variants.

Because of that, it’s hard to believe that Apple will stretch the M3 upgrades though 16 to 20 months after already releasing both the base and the pro chips at day one.

 

[brerlappin]

it’ll be interesting to see what happens

 

[Chuckeee]

Seems like prior to the release of every new processor version (including Intel, PowePC and 68K in addition to ARM SoC) it is always the same rumors “that this update will result in a HUGE revolutionary performance gain”. And while this has occasionally been the case (e.g.; the introduction on the M1 chip, the 601 PowerPC), typically in it is just another evolutionary step and a modest performance improvement.

And I would guess a modest gain is what we will see with the M3 as compared to the M2. Unless there is a huge new RT capability (I would expect this initial RT capability will be modest too).