iPad Pro How much longer do you think the 2018/A12X iPad Pros will get iPadOS Updates?

[Yebubbleman]

I'm probably asking this one as much for myself and my own personal ownership of a 2018/A12X/3rd Generation 12.9-inch iPad Pro as much as I am out of general curiosity as to what the rest of the community thinks: With A9X support having been dropped from iPadOS 17 (and both A10 and A10X Fusion likely following this next fall) and with A12 Bionic being the bare minimum supported non-X based SoC for iOS 17, when do you guys think that A12X Bionic based iPad Pros will be left out of a new major iPadOS release?

Given their similarity at the SoC level, unless 4GB vs. 6GB of RAM or that additional GPU core become an important differentiator, I could also see A12Z/2020 iPads losing support at the same time, though, it wouldn't shock me if Apple drew the line somewhere in between them as well. What say you all?

 

[darthbane2k]

Just a guess but I think this year.

 

[Abazigal]

Maybe one more year, but I expect iOS 18 to essentially be an update in name only. You get the number increase, maybe a few token improvements (eg: improvements to stock apps like messages and notes) and nothing else.

The one variable is that Apple also sells the iPad 10, which has 4gb of ram, and the A14 chip isn't really any different from the A12X. So it is possible that the 2018 iPad Pro continues to get software updates for the next 2-3 years simply because Apple is obligated to continue supporting an iPad with relatively gimped specs (compared to the iPads with M1 or better chips).

 

[Reverend Benny]

I'd say it will support iOS 18 at least. The A12X/A12Z has the neural engine which is rumoured to help out with AI functionality.

 

[Yebubbleman]

Maybe one more year, but I expect iOS 18 to essentially be an update in name only. You get the number increase, maybe a few token improvements (eg: improvements to stock apps like messages and notes) and nothing else.

The one variable is that Apple also sells the iPad 10, which has 4gb of ram, and the A14 chip isn't really any different from the A12X. So it is possible that the 2018 iPad Pro continues to get software updates for the next 2-3 years simply because Apple is obligated to continue supporting an iPad with relatively gimped specs (compared to the iPads with M1 or better chips).

I'd say it will support iOS 18 at least. The A12X/A12Z has the neural engine which is rumoured to help out with AI functionality.

iPadOS 18 support seems like a safe bet. But what about iPadOS 19 or 20?

 

[Seanm87]

I think iPadOS 18 will be the last one. Maybe 19 at a push.

 

[TheRealAlex]

The 2018 A12X was an is my Favorite iPad Pro. In 2022 I got the M2 because of FOMO (fear of missing out) not because I needed anything new, and the 4GB of RAM was an issue.

 

[rui no onna]

I'm probably asking this one as much for myself and my own personal ownership of a 2018/A12X/3rd Generation 12.9-inch iPad Pro as much as I am out of general curiosity as to what the rest of the community thinks: With A9X support having been dropped from iPadOS 17 (and both A10 and A10X Fusion likely following this next fall) and with A12 Bionic being the bare minimum supported non-X based SoC for iOS 17, when do you guys think that A12X Bionic based iPad Pros will be left out of a new major iPadOS release?

Technically, A10 is the bare minimum for 17 (unless you’re referring to just iPhones).

I’m guessing 18 is pretty much guaranteed.

Given their similarity at the SoC level, unless 4GB vs. 6GB of RAM or that additional GPU core become an important differentiator, I could also see A12Z/2020 iPads losing support at the same time, though, it wouldn't shock me if Apple drew the line somewhere in between them as well. What say you all?

Considering the iPad and iPad mini still have 4GB RAM, I’m actually expecting the 2018 A12X might get a stay of execution so it loses support around the same time as the 2020 A12Z. Iirc, all iPads that got iPadOS 13 also received 14 and 15.

The Air 3 and mini 5 with regular A12 and 3GB RAM might be dropped sooner though.

 

[Digitalguy]

As I said in my predictions last summer (https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/predictions-for-ipados-updates-over-the-next-8-years.2391411/) iPadOS 18 is guaranteed. 19 is a possibility but not 100% certain.

Also, A12Z will get at the very least 1 more OS upgrade, or even 2.
Why?
Apple has shown that they take age into account sometimes more than specs. If you add more RAM to that it's pretty much guaranteed that A12Z will get at least 19, and probably 20 too (if not more).

 

[rui no onna]

Also, A12Z will get at the very least 1 more OS upgrade, or even 2.
Why?
Apple has shown that they take age into account sometimes more than specs. If you add more RAM to that it's pretty much guaranteed that A12Z will get at least 19, and probably 20 too (if not more).

Yes, age is absolutely a factor. Based on the hardware they put on their iPads though, I’m guessing the minimum targets are 5+ years iPad, 6+ years Air/mini and 7+ years Pro.

iPadOS 16 (eol 2023):

• 2015 iPad Pro 12.9 A9X/4GB - 8 years
• 2016 iPad Pro 9.7 A9X/2GB - 7 years
• 2017 iPad 5th gen A9/2GB - 6 years

There’s no Air yet in the A9 and A10 line ups. The Air 2 got 8 years but that was a flagship model back when it was first released.

If the 2022 iPad 10th gen had more RAM, I’d also expect the A12Z Pro to be supported longer than the A12X. Considering the 10th gen still only has 4GB RAM though, I think it’s more likely that the A12X will get extra life support instead. I don’t expect the A12Z will get longer support than A14.

 

[c14nhl]

Don’t know why but I assumed my 2018 Pro wouldn’t get 18 this year. Im upgrading to the M4 either way, an additional year would be nice for the person I’m handing it down to.

 

[Digitalguy]

Yes, age is absolutely a factor. Based on the hardware they put on their iPads though, I’m guessing the minimum targets are 5+ years iPad, 6+ years Air/mini and 7+ years Pro.

iPadOS 16 (eol 2023):

• 2015 iPad Pro 12.9 A9X/4GB - 8 years
• 2016 iPad Pro 9.7 A9X/2GB - 7 years
• 2017 iPad 5th gen A9/2GB - 6 years

There’s no Air yet in the A9 and A10 line ups. The Air 2 got 8 years but that was a flagship model back when it was first released.

If the 2022 iPad 10th gen had more RAM, I’d also expect the A12Z Pro to be supported longer than the A12X. Considering the 10th gen still only has 4GB RAM though, I think it’s more likely that the A12X will get extra life support instead. I don’t expect the A12Z will get longer support than A14.

I only partially agree. I expect the Air 4 / iPad 10 to get at least one more update than A12X. And the A12Z to get at least as much as the Air 4 / iPad 10 or possibly 1 more year (so 2 more compared to A12X).
One important clue we'll get this year is the iPad 7 (A10 3GB), if it's supported by iPadOS 18 while the 2017 pro (A10X 4GB) is not, this will show that age is more important than specs (CPU/RAM), even taking base vs pro into account