M4 series core count speculation

[tenthousandthings]

I've see the below posted on Reddit and wanted to know your thoughts on it?

Edit - I have seen you discussing what I think it something similar above. (Apologies I am not technical and trying to understand it all to make a purchasing decision on whether to wait for the M4. Would be grateful if someone could explain it to me like a dummy)

The M3 is built using TSCM N3B process which has a very low production yield. Only 55% of the chips are good, 45% of production is a failure. This was the only option because the N3E process will not go into production before the end of the year.

Will Apple move to N3E as soon as it becomes available? If so, they could do that during 2024. It would be logical to name the silicon on N3E as “M4” because it should use slightly less power and/or have better performance.

Well, the first thing to know is that the "55%" yield number stems from an article in April 2023 in EE Times that quoted a report from an analyst. Here is the actual quote: "At present, we believe N3 yields at TSMC for A17 and M3 processors are at around 55% [a healthy level at this stage in N3 development], and TSMC looks on schedule to boost yields by around 5+ points each quarter."

This information is from six months before the actual A17 Pro and M3+ releases. There is no subsequent information that indicates yields haven't improved as projected. The poster above who said yield problems with N3B are "well-documented" is not correct. Those numbers come from an analyst who states explicitly that yields were on track in Q1 2023.

So that 55% number is baloney. It is true that N3B is a dead end (relative to N3E/N3P, at least), but it is not because of low yields.

The other major rumor was that Apple planned to move A17 Pro/M3+ production from N3B to N3E once N3E became available. It's not impossible. It's possible Apple's designs could easily transition to N3E. I think that's extremely unlikely, but I have little basis for that assertion. Neither does anyone who says it's likely.

I think Apple will use N3P for A18. N3E won't be used at all. But that's a minority view. Regardless, this idea that they will move A17/M3 over to N3E is far-fetched, no matter what they call it. There's absolutely zero evidence for it, as far as I am aware. It's just a very old rumor that dates to the time when N3E was first announced, the typical sort of assumption that surfaces when new information is introduced.

So, in short, M4 is unlikely to be released this year on N3E, which I believe is what you are asking about. So take the plunge and buy an M3 that meets your needs. It's not inconceivable that Apple will shift to an annual cycle and M4 will launch on N3P in late 2024, but that is fantasy until Apple proves otherwise. M4 will come on N2 in 2025. It will use Nanosheet (GAA) transistors and it will address many of the concerns expressed above re: CPU versus GPU, etc.

 

[Boil]

Mac Pro Cube with A19-based M4 Extreme on N2 process for WWDC 2025, confimed...! ;^p

 

[Sydde]

N2 is expected to begin full production 2H'25, so Apple will not have any N2-based products available any earlier than April of '26. And that would be good, because 1 April '26 will be the fiftieth anniversary of Apple's founding.

Most likely, there will be M3 variants migrating to N3P (not N3E) in the next couple years, but if M4 will be on N2, it will not be making its debut any time in '25.

 

[Boil]

Apple should move to a 18 month cadence for all chips, and release all levels of product at the same time; so basically, new SoCs/models of everything every year-and-a-half...! ;^p

 

[Sydde]

Apple should move to a 18 month cadence

Gordon Moore worked for Intel. Apple has moved on from them.

 

[tenthousandthings]

N2 is expected to begin full production 2H'25, so Apple will not have any N2-based products available any earlier than April of '26. And that would be good, because 1 April '26 will be the fiftieth anniversary of Apple's founding.

Most likely, there will be M3 variants migrating to N3P (not N3E) in the next couple years, but if M4 will be on N2, it will not be making its debut any time in '25.

The recent history of TSMC’s use of production estimates in press releases supports N2 in September 2025.

TSMC projected 2H 2022 for N4P, and it was used for A16 Bionic in September 2022.

TSMC is projecting 2H 2024 for N3P, thus my insistence that A18 will be on N3P in September 2024…

So N2 could be used for A19 in September 2025, because TSMC is now saying 2H 2025 for N2. It would parallel the 2022 timeline and (if I’m right about A18 and N3P) the 2024 timeline.

No doubt, you could be right, and 2025 is unrealistic, but note that TSMC has already shifted (“pulled in”) its high-volume production estimate for N2 forward from 2026 to 2H 2025.

TSMC’s early estimates tend to be conservative, and they keep their fallback options open for as long as they can. But the shift in the estimate is a good sign for N2 sooner rather than later.

Edit to add that none of this tells us whether Apple M4 will be on N3P or N2, we’ll just have to wait and see…

 

[ChrisA]

For most Macs, I'd expect the CPU core count to remain about the same. Apple will at some point bump up the number of Neural engines from 2 to some large number.

The only reason we have hardware inside the Mac is to support the software. Where is the software going and what hardware will best support it? Mmaybe not the M4 but some later mx, what is needed is making Siri smarter and faster

Most users don't need faster CPUs, not if the Mac is only used for watching YouTube and online shopping. But a future Siri could use those neural engines and some day, maybe that is where most of the compute-power will be.

 

[Sydde]

Most users don't need faster CPUs, not if the Mac is only used for watching YouTube and online shopping.

As true as that is, there are times. My friend fills his 8Gb simply by not closing tabs (some sites a brutal, even hidden). And I remember some 20~25 years ago, my PowerMac surprised a PC person by casually running two separate audio streams at once. The capabilities of modern machines are well beyond the average person's needs, but they do notice. I liken it to having a 200W amp on your home stereo: you almost never get to 1W, but the quality is so much better at the low-power end that you are really not wasting the 199Ws you never use.