I think memory usage for those kinds of apps has slowed down a lot. Even for gaming PC’s, 32 GB is being treated as the relatively cheap overkill option - 16 is probably enough, but 32 is cheap enough (on Windows…), so why not?
The limiting factor is more likely to be AI advances in everyday work, which will/may require raw CPU/GPU power, but not necessarily lots of RAM.
I’d be surprised if 16GB is not enough for the described use in 10 years. CPU, maybe not.
RAM has become this rather curious pivot around which almost the entire IT business turns. People tend to assume that more RAM is best, and that over time, the demands of operating systems and software always increase, so a good way to future proof a new system is to buy more RAM than you likely need, on the basis that eventually, you'll need it.
What we have tended to do is bake that into a hard principle, when in fact all the signs are from both macOS and Windows development that the upscaling of demand on system RAM is slowing, and that what is happening more is that demand on data throughout in systems has taken over.
It's hard to actually know where we'll be in maybe 10 years, but it is reasonable to project that the curve on RAM usage will at least for the most part slow down because, realistically, it has to. There is certainly no clear reason why for normal end-user purposes, AI would demand more memory, but every reason to expect that it will demand faster processing. In 10 years, I suspect 16GB will be sufficient, particularly since present 8GB production models will still need to be supported and operable for at least 5 more years from now.
Personally, I'm not convinced that even 8GB systems won't still be quite viable then, because seriously, how much more junk do we need our computers to come loaded with?
I was briefly using a 10-ish year old Mac with 8 GB Ram while considering which M1 to buy. It was very sluggish, but it didn’t seem like it was due to lack of RAM (only used it for light work).
This I find really telling, because back in the pandemic when I was working mostly from home, I put back into service what was then an 8-year old iMac to use as my main management system. It was incredibly slow, so I maxed out the RAM, expecting that would fix the problem. It made no difference at all.
A MacBook Pro of the same age with the same original 8GB RAM was much, much faster. Wiping the iMac and reinstalling macOS, plus all my software, resolved the speed issues entirely. Clearly, prior use and updates had caused issues which looked like RAM but were not.