Apple Overstocked on iPods and Macs?

[Frobozz]

If you actually look at ALL (not just one or two) of the specs and features of the iMac models, compared by price, I don't think you'll FIND any PC counterparts Then add OS X, lack of viruses, and a great software bundle. The iMac's a great deal!

And it WAS the best selling Mac, at least prior to the Mac Mini. (It may still be, I don't know--but they sure made it a lot better for the same price recently!)

Agreed.

If it helps, my statistical sample size is only one person-- but my father just replaced an upgraded b&w G3 with a top of the line 20" G5 iMac. And he's loving it. No wires. Very fast. Does everything he could ever want. And he's using it as a Landscape Architect-- so he's not just doing fluff. CAD, Photoshop, etc.

So based on the numbers in Apple's 10K, empirical evidence, and these rumors, I think it's safe to say that the PowerMac is becoming a tough sell. But not because it's behind in features-- but because laptops and "consumer" level computing power has reached a point where only the most extreme uses *require* a top of the line computer.

Heck, I've even considered replacing my PowerMac with a PowerBook. I don't play that many games on my Mac anymore (I have a PC, PS2, PSP, and GBA for that.) I may still get a PowerMac to satiate the hobbyist in me, but I really don't *need* it unless more first tier games come out for it, or I get more 3D modelling work (which I don't actively pursue.)

Anyone else in this boat on these boards?

 

[Daveway]

Everyone who had doubts that this was a bad thing can go back to my first post on page 1. Last night I said that this was bad and if wallstreet found out the stock would drop.

Well.....AAPL dropped over $2 this morning.

 

[Lancetx]

Everyone who had doubts that this was a bad thing can go back to my first post on page 1. Last night I said that this was bad and if wallstreet found out the stock would drop.

Well.....AAPL dropped over $2 this morning.

I think it has more to do with the fallout from the iPod settlement. The WSJ is saying that it could cost Apple $100 million. Either way, those stock analysts that are poo-pooing AAPL this morning are still morons...it's nothing more than a buying opportunity.

 

[Daveway]

I think it has more to do with the fallout from the iPod settlement. The WSJ is saying that it could cost Apple $100 million. Either way, those stock analysts that are poo-pooing AAPL this morning are still morons...it's nothing more than a buying opportunity.

No. Its the inventory. Piper Jafray, who pays most attention to AAPL, stated it is the overstock causing the fall and the settlement will have little effect.

The $50 coupons will likely not be redeemed and if they are it has to be for an APPLE product! These coupons will only cause more sales.

 

[-hh]

Apple can't rely on it's current userbase for the tremendous growth they need to achieve to keep up with Wall Street's expectations.

But of course.

So, basically Apple needs to find new customers.

Which thus means that last year's huge growth rate (IIRC, around 40%?) either must have meant that roughly half of all Mac consumers in the world happened to choose last year to buy an upgrade (an amazing coincidence, eh?), or else Apple is being successful in expanding their customer base.

Walk up to the average person on the street and ask them if they know what 'Spotlight' is. Or hell, even what 'OS X' is. Then ask them if they know what 'Windows XP' is.

Wrong questions to ask. You first ask them if they have a PC. When they say 'yes', you ask them what kind. When they say 'Windows', you then ask them if they've heard about the Apple Macintosh. You'll probably get a positive response to that question probably 75% of the time.

How do you propose that because the software is better (even though the vast majority of the market doesn't know anything about their software!) that somehow, people will just suddenly start buying Macs?

Its called marketing. Of course, if Apple were to talk about all of the Malware woes of Windows products, they would immediately be accused of slinging FUD.

And FWIW, having just within the past month seen my first actual "Windows XP" television advertisement in an incredibly long time, its quite painfully obvious that Microsoft did see Tiger's rollout as enough of a business threat to them to prompt them to spend money to buy television advertising so to try to counteract Apple's "mindshare" advantages.

Sometimes you don't see the fire, but merely its smoke.

Please don't call me a troll BTW. I'm simply making an observation.

Unfortunately, your "observation" on the iMac G5 totally ignored any possibility whatsoever of any consumer assigning any possible value to factors such as the iMac's form factor.

(I know that I'm being a bit 'Reductio ad Absuridum' here, but...) to accept your comparison method which allows selectiveness in identifying the product's salient value-added attributes would permit a bare 60GB EIDE 3.5" hard drive ($42 at Pricewatch) to be considered the equivalent of a 60GB iPod Photo ($449). Even though most people would suggest that this comparison absolutely and completely misses the boat on true product comparability.

However, since your method also allows us to compare one of those cheezy-but-famously-quoted $399 Windows PC's to be directly compared (quite unfavorably, BTW) to a George Foreman Burger Grill (Amazon: $59.88)...since the common salient attribute is that both of them mostly just generate heat...maybe its not so bad afterall


-hh

 

[Applespider]

As far as iPod sales go, bear in mind - early adopters, fashionistas, mass market. We're only just into the mass market period - there are less than 20m iPods out there worldwide and a lot more people who listen to music. There are lots of 'normal' people who are only now considering buying MP3 players and may automatically go for the iPod because that's what's named most often (a little like the 'normal' person who goes computer shopping and buys an XP machine because it's what's named most often)

I read that article as 'in stock' rather than 'overstocked'; there are still lots of resellers who don't have items immediately available but have to order direct. That's not a good situation to be in - consumers who walk into a store want to leave with it again which was always one of Apple's problems. Cool ideas but a month-long wait. Obviously it depends on the ratio of stock to sales and achieving a good stock-turn but since resellers are still seeing 50% out-of-stock rates on Apple products in the last 3 months, I'm not convinced it's an overstock problem

 

[Lancetx]

No. Its the inventory. Piper Jafray, who pays most attention to AAPL, stated it is the overstock causing the fall and the settlement will have little effect.

The $50 coupons will likely not be redeemed and if they are it has to be for an APPLE product! These coupons will only cause more sales.

I happen to agree with that overall assessment, but tell that to the guys at the WSJ that are reporting that this iPod settlement will cost Apple $100 million. It's all over the business news this morning and it has a lot to do with why their stock is down along with the inventory issues.

I wasn't saying I agreed with them, as I actually think that analysts are typically morons when it comes to anything to do with technology. I'd be buying AAPL while it's down for the time being because it won't last once people figure out this iPod thing is not that big of a deal. They made the same overreaction last week in the opposite direction with the Intel on Macs story in the WSJ and that artificially drove the stock up....

 

[Macnotxp]

Yeah, the markets seem to be more preoccupied over the settlement than any inventory issues. I happen to disagree with them as well, as I don't think it will have that much of an impact on Apple's bottom line either. This is straight from Marketwatch.

Apple (AAPL: news, chart, profile) fell $2.10, or more than 5%, to $37.94 in the wake of Thursday's announcement that the company could end up paying $100 million or more to people who bought one of the first three generations of the iPod. The case centered around iPod batteries that failed to run as long as Apple had claimed.

 

[Phobophobia]

Yeah, the markets seem to be more preoccupied over the settlement than any inventory issues. I happen to disagree with them as well, as I don't think it will have that much of an impact on Apple's bottom line either. This is straight from Marketwatch.

The stock lost 1.7 billion dollars of value, for a problem that could only cost them 100 million. The logic of some people, lol.

 

[Phobophobia]

No. Its the inventory. Piper Jafray, who pays most attention to AAPL, stated it is the overstock causing the fall and the settlement will have little effect.

The $50 coupons will likely not be redeemed and if they are it has to be for an APPLE product! These coupons will only cause more sales.

Piper Jafray could be wrong, Daveway. And you didn't post a source.

 

[MontyZ]

Apple could just start giving away free iPods to those who buy a new iMac or G5. That would be a GREAT incentive to get some people to switch.

 

[Phobophobia]

Apple could just start giving away free iPods to those who buy a new iMac or G5. That would be a GREAT incentive to get some people to switch.

The profit margin on the iMac has already been lowered in order to give more value.

 

[iHateWindows]

Maybe they'll give away a ton of Macs and iPods at WWDC...

 

[iHateWindows]

Apple could just start giving away free iPods to those who buy a new iMac or G5. That would be a GREAT incentive to get some people to switch.

I could see them giving away iPod shuffles or iPod Minis, but not 20 GB or Photo ones.

 

[MontyZ]

I could see them giving away iPod shuffles or iPod Minis, but not 20 GB or Photo ones.

I could see them giving ME a free 20GB iPod. I've closed my eyes and am imagining it as I type... (Oh, Steve! Thanks so much!)

 

[Sun Baked]

The stock lost 1.7 billion dollars of value, for a problem that could only cost them 100 million. The logic of some people, lol.

That's what happens when a stock become a market darling like Apple has been for so long.

As long as the news is sparkling and rosy the stock will go up.

When a pimple shows up in the financials, news, or from people like this, the stock is usually punished rather harshly.

 

[alexeismertin]

Inaccurate

I don't think this report is very accurate, for example in the UK the Mac Mini (off the shelf & BTO) changed from shipping from 7 days to 1-2 weeks, thats hardly overstocked.

 

[wrldwzrd89]

I don't think this report is very accurate, for example in the UK the Mac Mini (off the shelf & BTO) changed from shipping from 7 days to 1-2 weeks, thats hardly overstocked.

I think the reason this is is either the information it was based on is now out of date, the report was specific to a particular region (like the USA), or both.

 

[alexeismertin]

just waiting.......

Okay, when the info was first posted I think it was 7 days shipping in the UK which moved to 1-2 weeks.

Now there's a global Mac Mini surge/shortage

Europe is 1-2 weeks
Australia is 7-10 days
US has moved to 6-8 business days



Update soon?