Cryptos are little more than the kind of nonsense seen with the South Sea company of the 18th century - something built on hype that in reality didn't have any real value.
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Apple Temporarily Halts Sales in Turkey After Currency Crash
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Because you are claiming it has to be that way because it always has when I started by saying it needs to change. Shipping is easy to fix and we already solved it for cars. Just extend that to all products.
Excepting some kind of alien invasion, it certainly will not. The US dollar is the defacto world currency.
That said, and annual decrease of 40% is not necessary today cause havoc. The best models I’ve seen in the last month indicate something in the 6+% range. The effects of this on the overall economy are pernicious and if not catastrophic. . . perhaps the right phrase would still be extremely serious. You can already see how the state and federal governments are (badly in my opinion) responding. You can see almost every assets class up well over the current inflation levels. Thinking hard about the US’s aging population base and what that means to the ability to actually save in a conservative enough way. Think about how investments in non-risky bonds—which is many times the market compared with the entire stock market—has been an absolute disaster over the last several years.
There are many reasons for all this, but the Federal Reserve . . . and its behavior in trying to consider what it calls its dual mandate plus to be the savior of markets and protector from the impacts of the COVID responses . . . the Fed is at the very least as culpable as anyone else. I’ve read history, including American history from this century. I’m not looking forward to the social unrest that simply must manifest from this extreme sugar high. And it may seem unthinkable now, but if the US actually ever loses its reserve currency status . . . heaven help the world. In all honesty, this kind of stuff is what actually could lead to the types of provincial wars which could end in a global conflagration.
The Fed should admit its mistake, change course by *immediately* halting all sssets purchases (of waiting to mid 2022), and start implanting .25% increases per quarter starting early next year . . . not waiting to 2023. This medicine, in the long run, will taste bad in the moment but will be much better than the effects of urgent surgery in 2023 and 2024.
If you want to see an interesting collision between Turkey and turkey, around this time of year, but 27 years ago, read up about Serdar Argic. Wrote programs to scan Usenet for mentions of Turkey and issue vigorous denials of a genocide. Right before Thanksgiving. So if you mentioned, say, a recipe for preparing a turkey, you’d get a long rambling vehement response denying history, that didn’t have anything to do with the turkey you were preparing. Usenet (the precursor to the Internet) was not amused. One of the first cases of automated spamming.
Bad for the people of Turkey. Hopefully everything will be sorted out soon.
I agree about ergodan being a moron but that doesn’t change the fact that they’re now in a pickle and simply raising rates won’t fix the issue as you’ve stated.
The US has been printing money to buy debt
I agree that Erdogan is a moron but it doesn’t change the fact that they got into this mess because of their excessive deficit, and fixing their economic issue is not as simple as raising rates.
Speaking of ignorance, you seriously think demand for US goods and services jumped by 67% over the past year?? Because 40% US dollars in existence today were printed over the last year. The Fed has been printing money to fund the deficit! The current debt has ballooned to 135% of GDP and the govt is still spending like a kid in a candy store with an unlimited credit card.
Printing that much money and running up the deficit ALWAYS leads to inflation. Does this mean we’ll end up like Turkey? Not necessarily but inflation is clearly heating up. Even the dollar store just raised their prices by 25%! Inflation is here to stay and most people will take a pay cut this year. Even those who got a raise.
That's the thing, interest rates are a chase the tail musical chairs game and that's what he doesn't want to do.
Every year it is the most expensive "Thanksgiving ever". Can't remember of any deflationary periods in US economic history. Same with "the best iPhone ever".
You are talking nonsense.
It isn't just shipping that has been effected the entire production and shipping system has been damaged. While it has been wildly exaggerated there are ships that have to sit right outside the harbor because their are so few people to unload them (Fact check: Dozens of ships waiting off California coast amid backup at ports)
As for your claim about "already solved it for cars" that is more nonsense. Chip makers make a certain number of chips a year based on orders. Auto makers around the world cut back but people needed something to do to keep from going stir crazy and so TV, mobile, and computer purchases went up.
When things changed and the auto makers wanted to make cars the computer chips they needed simply worn't there at the levels they needed (Carmakers have been hit hard by a global chip shortage — here’s why). More over the production chain for these chips is messed up until 2022 or 2023 (The global chip shortage could last until 2023) so that isn't changing any time soon.
It has been doing that since Ronald "Voodoo Economics" Reagan when the US went from a creditor nation to a debtor nation. What's next tell us the sun will rise tomorrow?
Somebody fact checked that insanity. Guess what? "The US did not, in fact, print 40% of all US dollars in history. The US printed slightly more physical dollars than usual."
Personally looking for the origin of that 40% and similar claims shows they came from Bitcoiners on Twitter. We need a new phase 'You can't have Twitter without Twit'. When asked where they got those numbers from...silence.
No it doesn't.
In fact, that was the "Reagan Miracle" or as my late mother called it "Prosperity on a Credit Card". The US when from $738 billion to $2.1 trillion during his 8 year administration. But the inflation rate went from a staggering 13.4% in 1980 to 4.8% in 1989. Last time I checked 4.8% is less than 13.4%.
It rose to 5.4% the first year Bush was in office and bounced around between 4 to 6%
It isn't just printing more money. It is supply and demand. The whole production and supply chain is totally FUBARed and people are tried of working for wages that using the minimum wage of 1968 of $1.60 (when it was 90% of the poverty level) was well below what they should be at ($12.72 on inflation alone).
Here is a quote from a Republican president made over a century ago:
"No man can be a good citizen unless he has a wage more than sufficient to cover the bare cost of living, and hours of labor short enough so that after his day’s work is done he will have time and energy to bear his share in the management of the community, to help in carrying the general load. We keep countless men from being good citizens by the conditions of life with which we surround them. We need comprehensive workmen’s compensation acts, both state and national laws to regulate child labor and work for women, and, especially, we need in our common schools not merely education in book learning, but also practical training for daily life and work"
Later that same Republican president said:
"We stand for a living wage. Wages are subnormal if they fail to provide a living for those who devote their time and energy to industrial occupations. The monetary equivalent of a living wage varies according to local conditions, but must include enough to secure the elements of a normal standard of living--a standard high enough to make morality possible, to provide for education and recreation, to care for immature members of the family, to maintain the family during periods of sickness, and to permit of reasonable saving for old age."
People will hide behind the 'oh minimum wage is only a starting wage' claim or some other BS here is the reality of what the minimum wage was supposed to be from day one:
"No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country. By living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level — I mean the wages of a decent living."
Heck, even Adam Smith said as much:
"A man must always live by his work, and his wages must at least be sufficient to maintain him. They must even upon most occasions be somewhat more; otherwise it would be impossible for him to bring up a family, and the race of such workmen could not last beyond the first generation."
Yes, the US, UK, EU nations and some Asian nations buy debt. Stop making it a US only thing. That plays into the hands of lunatic conspiracy theorists who only attack the Fed because they believe secret lizard people control it.
They buy debt to keep the economy afloat. If they hadn’t bought debt and paid people to stay/work at home during the pandemic it would have been mass chaos and death all over the place. Civilisation as we know it would have ended last year because nobody had any idea when vaccines were coming, if they were coming, how bad the virus could become, or when normality would return.
Same could be said for times of war. Governments have to issue new money to pay for defense and infrastructure otherwise you’ll have a weakened nation. We do not have world peace and may never have as long as oligarchs use autocratic governments as covers for their greed and crimes.
Printing money does lead to deficit, but that is part of the design not an accident. We are supposed to have some inflation otherwise we have economic stasis and no wage growth (And landlords will definitely never stop raising rents). If you have no inflation in the US for example and then your suppliers half away around the world start charging more money because they need to grow, what happens to prices?
They have to inflate. There’s no option. Companies can’t reduce their profits because suppliers keep raising prices.
So printing money alone is not a cause of inflation. When the velocity of money increases and interest rates increase then the inflationary effects of increasing the money supply are controlled. That’s how the 2% target was sustained for so many years.
What is beyond control are international costs. When supply chains have bottenecks and when suppliers raise their costs then inflation has to occur. There’s no alternative.
Neither “gold” nor “crypto” can change this, in fact it makes it worse because it encourages the wealthy to keep hoarding more and more assets. That’s why the gold standard was abandoned for new monetary theories.
If we really want a solution we need to get billionaires to pay their fair share. That’s not an attack on the rich and it’s not socialism. In the last two decades the concentration of wealth has became ultra excessive (they even use crypto to steal from the public) and if people of all political creeds have any moral backbone they need to say enough is enough.
According to James Burke the first nation to be run on debt was Burgundy which kept it together for three generations. It all ended with Charles of Burgundy (1467 to 1477) who was total military incompetent. There were no paid armies back then only mercenaries and since Charles lost every battle he was in he had to borrow to pay the mercenaries (winning meant you got to loot and pillage).
Before there was a formal UK (18th century) England had ran up a huge debt. So the South Sea company was set up to deal with it and it eventually became this hype driven insanity that topped out at £1000 a share in 1720. Yes that is 1720; 301 years ago. Using an inflation calculator US$1000 works out to be $65,854.52 and that is per share! (the UK part only goes back to 1751). If we use the 1751 that £1000 is an totally off the wall insane £237,519.25 in 2021
And the kicker to this insanity? The debt the South Sea company was supposed to take care of and actually made worse got a payment...in 2015. Yep the UK was still paying off a deft it ran up before it was the UK even after ~300 years.
And the fun part? Technically the US had paid off all its debt January 8, 1835 (there were some outstanding bonds). Two years later the Panic of 1837 happened. So nearly all that debt the US has only goes back to 1835.
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Yeah I can’t wrap my head around how and why wages have stagnated yet nearly every single items/goods purchased has gone up substantially.It has been doing that since Ronald "Voodoo Economics" Reagan when the US went from a creditor nation to a debtor nation. What's next tell us the sun will rise tomorrow?
Somebody fact checked that insanity. Guess what? "The US did not, in fact, print 40% of all US dollars in history. The US printed slightly more physical dollars than usual."
Personally looking for the origin of that 40% and similar claims shows they came from Bitcoiners on Twitter. We need a new phase 'You can't have Twitter without Twit'. When asked where they got those numbers from...silence.
No it doesn't.
In fact, that was the "Reagan Miracle" or as my late mother called it "Prosperity on a Credit Card". The US when from $738 billion to $2.1 trillion during his 8 year administration. But the inflation rate went from a staggering 13.4% in 1980 to 4.8% in 1989. Last time I checked 4.8% is less than 13.4%.
It rose to 5.4% the first year Bush was in office and bounced around between 4 to 6%
It isn't just printing more money. It is supply and demand. The whole production and supply chain is totally FUBARed and people are tried of working for wages that using the minimum wage of 1968 of $1.60 (when it was 90% of the poverty level) was well below what they should be at ($12.72 on inflation alone).
Here is a quote from a Republican president made over a century ago:
"No man can be a good citizen unless he has a wage more than sufficient to cover the bare cost of living, and hours of labor short enough so that after his day’s work is done he will have time and energy to bear his share in the management of the community, to help in carrying the general load. We keep countless men from being good citizens by the conditions of life with which we surround them. We need comprehensive workmen’s compensation acts, both state and national laws to regulate child labor and work for women, and, especially, we need in our common schools not merely education in book learning, but also practical training for daily life and work"
Later that same Republican president said:
"We stand for a living wage. Wages are subnormal if they fail to provide a living for those who devote their time and energy to industrial occupations. The monetary equivalent of a living wage varies according to local conditions, but must include enough to secure the elements of a normal standard of living--a standard high enough to make morality possible, to provide for education and recreation, to care for immature members of the family, to maintain the family during periods of sickness, and to permit of reasonable saving for old age."
People will hide behind the 'oh minimum wage is only a starting wage' claim or some other BS here is the reality of what the minimum wage was supposed to be from day one:
"No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country. By living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level — I mean the wages of a decent living."
Heck, even Adam Smith said as much:
"A man must always live by his work, and his wages must at least be sufficient to maintain him. They must even upon most occasions be somewhat more; otherwise it would be impossible for him to bring up a family, and the race of such workmen could not last beyond the first generation."
There is a very simple reason, same problem there was in the Gilded Age - greed. Overpaid CEOs more MBAs who don't do anything but collect a paycheck, cities/counties increasing taxes on property every freaking year, etc. A city I lived in did this at 3% (max allowed by law) per year even when pay was flat.
You are missing the point. Everyone pays the same for auto shipping no matter how close to Detroit they are.
Detroit? Are you kidding? Detroit is a shallow ghost of itself. Never mind I am talking about the entire supply chain which the three articles should have made clear.
Stop over thinking. Require everyone to pay the same price for shipping and shipping stops being an issue.
I appreciate the long post but I can’t take it seriously enough to read the whole thing when your first comment is so far off the mark so I will address that.It has been doing that since Ronald "Voodoo Economics" Reagan when the US went from a creditor nation to a debtor nation. What's next tell us the sun will rise tomorrow?
Somebody fact checked that insanity. Guess what? "The US did not, in fact, print 40% of all US dollars in history. The US printed slightly more physical dollars than usual."
Personally looking for the origin of that 40% and similar claims shows they came from Bitcoiners on Twitter. We need a new phase 'You can't have Twitter without Twit'. When asked where they got those numbers from...silence.
No it doesn't.
In fact, that was the "Reagan Miracle" or as my late mother called it "Prosperity on a Credit Card". The US when from $738 billion to $2.1 trillion during his 8 year administration. But the inflation rate went from a staggering 13.4% in 1980 to 4.8% in 1989. Last time I checked 4.8% is less than 13.4%.
It rose to 5.4% the first year Bush was in office and bounced around between 4 to 6%
It isn't just printing more money. It is supply and demand. The whole production and supply chain is totally FUBARed and people are tried of working for wages that using the minimum wage of 1968 of $1.60 (when it was 90% of the poverty level) was well below what they should be at ($12.72 on inflation alone).
Here is a quote from a Republican president made over a century ago:
"No man can be a good citizen unless he has a wage more than sufficient to cover the bare cost of living, and hours of labor short enough so that after his day’s work is done he will have time and energy to bear his share in the management of the community, to help in carrying the general load. We keep countless men from being good citizens by the conditions of life with which we surround them. We need comprehensive workmen’s compensation acts, both state and national laws to regulate child labor and work for women, and, especially, we need in our common schools not merely education in book learning, but also practical training for daily life and work"
Later that same Republican president said:
"We stand for a living wage. Wages are subnormal if they fail to provide a living for those who devote their time and energy to industrial occupations. The monetary equivalent of a living wage varies according to local conditions, but must include enough to secure the elements of a normal standard of living--a standard high enough to make morality possible, to provide for education and recreation, to care for immature members of the family, to maintain the family during periods of sickness, and to permit of reasonable saving for old age."
People will hide behind the 'oh minimum wage is only a starting wage' claim or some other BS here is the reality of what the minimum wage was supposed to be from day one:
"No business which depends for existence on paying less than living wages to its workers has any right to continue in this country. By living wages, I mean more than a bare subsistence level — I mean the wages of a decent living."
Heck, even Adam Smith said as much:
"A man must always live by his work, and his wages must at least be sufficient to maintain him. They must even upon most occasions be somewhat more; otherwise it would be impossible for him to bring up a family, and the race of such workmen could not last beyond the first generation."
Why use a “fact checker” who clearly can’t check facts or is pushing propaganda when you can go to the Fed’s site with pretty charts and all? Notice the operative words, “physical dollars”. Why is physical dollars relevant in today’s world? Sounds like your “fact checker” is spinning the story.
According to the Fed, they increased money supply by almost 70% over 2020 which is clearly a LOT more, not a little more. In other words, there is 40% more US dollars today than existed in 2020.
When did I say it was a US only thing? When did I say buying debt was inherently bad? Why is reading comprehension so poor on Macrumors?
I corrected you because you said the US was printing money at record rates because of demand from the US and other countries.
I said running up the deficit where we’re now at 135% of GDP is bad because it’s unsustainable. Would you spend 35% more on your credit card every year than what you make annually? At some point you would have to curtail spending and/or downsize, right? For irresponsible governments with corrupt politicians that spend beyond their means in order to buy votes, it’s called austerity measures. Sooner or later someone has to pay and believe me, it won’t be the politicians.
Again no source. But even if there was one it is a half truth.
What is really going on is very simple: "It’s an accounting rule change."
What the Fed was using in the past was M1 (money that’s readily available – mostly paper cash, coins, and checking accounts) but there was also M2 (money in savings accounts and retail money market accounts). These were two separate things.
"If you put money in a checking account, regulators make banks set aside a cushion as reserves in case they get into trouble. But if you put money into a savings account, regulators tell banks they don’t have to reserve anything. The catch is that it’s only considered a savings account if the consumer is allowed to make no more than six withdrawals per month."
"Last April the Fed changed the rules and eliminated the six-withdrawal limit on savings accounts." (due to COVID)
"Savings accounts are measured in M2 and left out of M1. But once the six-withdrawal rule was removed, every savings account suddenly became, in the eyes of regulators and people who make these charts, a checking account. So M1 exploded higher. Not because the Fed printed a bunch of money, but because trillions of dollars in savings accounts were reclassified as checking accounts." (sic) The Fed Isn’t Printing As Much Money As You Think
For the TL; DR crowd: The Fed printed money to cover amounts that currently existed in savings accounts and not new money.
But because we have a bunch of clueless people who simply reacted to M1 jumping through the roof without understanding what it really meant we had prices go up. But Fed did not actually add money - it was to made sure there was physical money for savings account withdrawals.
The inflation we are having is because the American public as a whole has the attention span of a goldfish and an intelligence that makes a rock look smart.
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Oh for the love of... Shipping isn't the problem as demonstrated before.
The entire supply chain is messed up.
You can't ship what doesn't exist because the manufacturing sequence is FUBARed. You can't unload cargo if there are fewer workers and inspectors for said cargo. You can't effectively ship said material if there is a shortage of captains, train engineers, and truck drivers. It is Capitalism 101; demand up and supply low price go up. (Supply-Demand curve)
The idea that you would pay the same to ship across a country as to ship it around the world is so unrealistic that it is pure ROFLOL material.