Thats why I don't think there will be an unlocked phone. As much as we all might want it, its just not as easy or convenient for the Average American, this is not to say that the Avg. Amer. lacks intelligence and couldn't figure it out, the question is do they want to? Case in point: my Sprint Treo got the LCD busted the other day when i smashed my belt clip.(dont ask I know I'm an idiot)
I took it over to the local Sprint Store and told them what happened and with the insurance on my plan (5 extra a month) walked out with a new handset, activated and all my settings transfered. Thats convenience.
Okay, you lost me. How, exactly, would an unlocked cell phone preclude any of these from happening:
* Sprint selling the phone in their stores. Or Verizon, Cellular One, er, Cingular, etc?
* Any of the above and/or third parties who also sell the phone from providing walk-in-servicable warrantees?
* For that matter, Apple providing their own walk-in-service warrantee (let's call it "AppleCare"!)?
And, let me state for the record that the whole racket of "transfering" your address book, etc, from your phone is a needless pain in the ass. I'd much rather my phone properly sync with my computer, which is where my actual address book and calendar reside. Then, getting a new phone should be nothing more than ditching the old one and syncing the new one to my computer instead. The primary bit of information lost doing this today are speed-dials. Which just seems silly: why isn't that information sync'ed over as well? Sigh.
In any case, I'd expect an Apple phone to sync all its data and settings to my Mac flawlessly, so I don't need the Sprint store to use its magical device (also known as a personal computer with a sync cable) to do it for me. Doesn't help getting everything off whatever POC I currently have, but at least it'll help when time to upgrade two or three years hence.
I think that Apple will follow the Razr model in terms of how that was released. That first went to Cingular as a exclusive phone and then a year later was placed in other service providers. Because of Sprint and Verizons large market share, CDMA is not something they can ignore, just like placing the iPod on windows. We all know the mac is better but we need to give all people a chance to use it. (excpet here in the states CDMA is the better one right now).
I just don't see Apple getting into the phone business just to be a "me too" phone manufacturer. It's just not exciting enough for Steve, IMHO, and not rewarding enough for the bean counters. The cell phone market as it exists today is remarkably mature. I can see Apple getting in in two scenarios:
1. They transform it completely via product offering.
2. They transform it completely as a business model.
I'm not sure how any of the designs being bounced around here could qualify in the first case. Everything's been done before.
What excites me is Apple taking a marginal win on the first (I know they can do a marginal win there) and using it to force a major win on the second (making the cell phone manufacturer the chief brand identity when talking about a cell phone, not the company that owns the towers). No commitment discounts. No lock-in. No crippling of hardware to force network usage (I'm looking at you, Verizon!)
If this succeeds, then we can start seeing true multi-media phones and devices where the media doesn't need to come through the phone network, where "ringtones" are no different from any other music you own, where in short the phone is an integral part of the rest of your gadget repertoire instead of an island protected by the company with whom you signed an 'n'-year contract.
If apple wanted to run their own network, they could, but they would have to wait 2 years to see the kinds of numbers that they would be looking for as "success". Most people are in contracts, and don't just jump ship to a new provider who they know nothing about (service wise) it would take 2 years for enough people to be released from their contracts. In cases like mine, I have an excellent contract with sprint, and I have had it for 5 years now. Since I keep re upping the contract, they can't raise my rates, or charge me other fees. There are many people in contracts like that who wouldn't want to sign with Apple because it might be more expensive.
Question: you re-up your contract after two years (and, believe me, Sprint is NOT under any obligation to re-up the contract; they do it because they make money off you!) Do you get any kind of discount on a new phone at that time? Or, do you just buy new phones whenever you feel like it?
See, my experience is this: people don't buy new phones except when that contract runs out. Then, they can either get a $200 subsidy/discount by jumping to another company, or settle for the $0-100 discount their company offers for re-upping for another 2 years. Maybe I just hang around with cell-phone cheapskates, but that's the pattern I see.
Seems like, in general, the cell phone market is on a 2-year upgrade cycle, and Apple wouldn't necessarily be any exception to this. Of course, this isn't all that different from the MP3-player market or computer market either, and Apple seems to be doing okay in both of those.
