Clarification: Flash iPod 'Rumor'

[CalfCanuck]

Originally posted by iMook
Thus, Apple may use flash memory in order to cater to a different user base. (zero moving parts = high impact tolerance = no skipping no matter what) [/B]

The other advantage of a different product line is that you can sell a minature, impact-resistant unit to people who already own an iPod.

So besides capturing the "new" low-budget market, you increase your sales using your existing market base (just as owners of g5 towers might also have a small laptop).

 

[peharri]

One of the consistant parts of the rumour is that the low-end ePod will be 2G. So whether it's flash based or not, these comments about being concerned about it being only half a gig are probably, hopefully, groundless.

If they can get 2G of flash in a $100 device, then this would be wonderful news: battery life would be much better, the machine would be noiseless, and it'd be slightly more robust too. I'd prefer a 6G iPod with flash to the 10G iPod with an HD I have now.

I still don't quite believe the rumours. But I guess given the crash in flash prices over the last few months, the "flash based ePod" looks to me fractionally more plausable than the "low capacity HD based ePod" one. The only way I can see them doing the latter is if they do the opposite of the rumours and the ePod is actually larger than an iPod, large enough to incorporate a laptop 2.5" drive.

 

[mhouse]

Gotcha, but...

So I get what your saying Mook...about the HD vs. flash thing. I guess the gist of my question is this: which part of the reports we have heard so far do you think is wrong?

Are you thinking that we'll see a lower capacity player from Apple at the 99 dollar price point or a higher-capacity player at a higher-than-reported price?

Do you think the 99 dollar price point is just bogus?

Later!

 

[pkradd]

MOSR (not always reliable) is reporting that there are two different new iPods coming. A low-priced and mid-priced, as opposed to the current iPod "high price" I guess. Nobody knows what's coming and discussion is fun but the real deal will be revealed in 10 days. There's also a left-field drive possiblity from Dataplay. Currently it only holds 500MB. If there's a smaller iPod at a very low price the market would be kids and teens. By the way, the current iPod has about a 35 minute buffer memory so jogging with it for that time will give you continuous music until it has to reload.

 

[happyadam]

Also, no matter if they opt for miniHDD or flash memory, the price point won't be low enough to make a clear distinction between the iPod and the new mp3 player.

That's assuming the flash card is included. What if the mini iPod is just like a digi-cam with an empty replaceable CFII slot? - i.e. let the customer decide whether they want 1 or 2GB flash card, or microdrive or just several cheaper smaller cards.

They might throw in a cheap 128 or 256MB card for good measure but it would help them keep the price down.

 

[savar]

Re: All credibility disappears

Originally posted by macFanDave
when the source is Rob Enderle. He's an idiot (and a Microsoft-sponsored FUDster.)

Yeah, he is. This is the same guy who has said repeatedly that Apple should port everything over to x86 or else they will immediately go out of business. Rob Enderle is basically the bum on the corner with the sign that says "the world will end tomorrow" which is so obviously weathered you know he's been holding it up for 10 years. Except the bum has probably accomplished more during his life than Mr. Enderle has.

Furthermore, who the $##* came up with the rumor about the new iPods being flash based!? Flash memory is sooo expensive, and if the flash sticks are removable then it will just make the ipod complicated.

We've been talking for 3 months about the new 2.5" 2G and 4G drives that Toshiba has been making. I'm sure the 2G model costs less than 512 M of flash memory (which is around $180). Flash based players are completely stupid, I really never saw the point of buying an MP3 player until the iPod came out.

ARrgghh, guess we'll see soon enough.

 

[iMook]

mhouse:

I think the only way they're going to hit anything close to a $99 price point is if:
1. They sell at a loss, which won't happen, considering it's Apple we're talking about.
2. They go for a low-capacity flash player, and I mean 128MB/256 MB when I say "low".

Thus, Apple can now choose to go for two things:
1. High-impact users (sports, running, etc.) If this, then they'll go for a low-capacity flash player, and maybe consider the $99 price point.
2. Mid-capacity (Cornice HDD, microdrives, StorCard (though this is farfetched)) smaller-form-factor HDD player, which will fill the same niche as the Rio Nitrus and Creative MuVo2 (both with Cornice drives, might I add).

So, IMHO, I think they'd go for a flash player, as the only advantage that a miniHDD offers is a smaller form factor. It doesn't fill a different niche. Every Apple product fills a different niche, and each niche has only one product line filling it. It's perfect. The iPod fills the carry-around-a-ton-of-music-which-can't-stand-prolonged-jostling jukebox niche.
I really don't see a point in introducing a smaller version which fills almost the same niche.

My 2 cents.


savar:

Why in the world would Apple use a BIGGER form factor for a 2GB/4GB iPod? FYI: The current iPod uses a 1.8" HDD. Putting a 2.5" HDD in a "mini iPod" would be a bad marketing move, IMHO. See above for the argument in support of flash-based.

 

[Doctor Q]

I've solved Apple's problem. The ideal low-end product is a no-storage iPod that holds zero songs. Why? Because it will be cheap to manufacture and sell, but will still have the Apple coolness factor. Maybe it'll even let you play a game or a few builtin songs. People who can't afford portable music can still have an iPod for a few bucks. When they can afford one that holds music, they can upgrade. And the fashion conscious can afford to buy one of each color to match their daily outfits.

Now we need a name. Hmmm, the 0Pod ("zero pod")? The noPod?

 

[CalfCanuck]

BINGO!!!

Originally posted by happyadam
That's assuming the flash card is included. What if the mini iPod is just like a digi-cam with an empty replaceable CFII slot? - i.e. let the customer decide whether they want 1 or 2GB flash card, or microdrive or just several cheaper smaller cards.

They might throw in a cheap 128 or 256MB card for good measure but it would help them keep the price down.

Give the man a cigar - I'm sold!

This is an VERY interesting idea with some history behind it. Remember how Apple used to charge us for those "extras" like keyboards? Why not do the old bait and switch one more time. A 256MB card could hold 50-60 songs right out of the gate, but the unit could be upgraded by the user as the price of compact flash cards drops.

The reality is that Apple NEEDS to get an entry price iPod out there if it wants to remain a key player in this market. (see some of the other posts about how Apple innovation has failed time and again to translate into market share). Of course they control the high end at the present, but I bought a $100 mp3 player for my niece this Christmas rather than dropping $300 for an iPod, and I'm sure I wasn't alone.

As I've stated several times here, all roads lead to flash ram once they solve the price issue. That will probably take 4-5 years, since they are now only on 4th generation production.

Apple needs to stay ahead of this curve - get their design crews going and create useable, elegant, and exciting units at the low end of the market. This will continue to create up-grade demand for the more expensive i-Pods, as well as give them a boost on designing the future flash ramm i-Pods we'll see in 4-5 years.

 

[StudioGuy]

Re: small flash only included

I was going to post that thought of Apple providing a very small flash card to make the $99, and let you bring it to 1 GB or whatever; but, then I thought, now Apple wouldn't cheap out on a thing like that, would they?... Doesn't seem like a very Apple thing to do, and I'd have trouble seeing Steve brag about that at MWSF.

I'm still waiting for a line-in (dare I say full bandwidth) higher-end iPod as a portable recording backup. Those flash based audio recorders are still about $600.

 

[CalfCanuck]

Apple has ALWAYS had it's cheap side

Originally posted by StudioGuy
I was going to post that thought of Apple providing a very small flash card to make the $99, and let you bring it to 1 GB or whatever; but, then I thought, now Apple wouldn't cheap out on a thing like that, would they?... Doesn't seem like a very Apple thing to do, and I'd have trouble seeing Steve brag about that at MWSF.

In my post above I mentioned the habit Apple had of charging an extra $100 for your keyboard for YEARS - if that ain't cheap, what is?

And they've been infamous for always skimping on RAM, right through to the high-performance end. Look at the G5's - the 1.6 ships with 256 MB RAM, and the $3000 model Dual 2 GHz ships with a hilarious 512MB. Do you think anyone would use actually use that configuration right out of the box?

So if Apple's not ashamed to cut a few corners on their $3K machines, I sure hope they do the same and bring out a model to cover their flanks on the low end of the market.

As I've said a few times here, some sort of flash ram is the future of these portable devices - more durable (good for user as well as controlling Apple warranty expenses), longer battery life, smaller unit, etc.

As the price of this memory falls, the size of the entry level $99 units will continue to rise. Once it hits 1GB, Apple will start to sweat, and when it hits 4 or 8GB, iPod sales will be affected - granted that will take 4 or 5 years, but time flies.

 

[CalfCanuck]

Are Playlists the key to the small iPods?

Much of the discussion on entry level iPods focuses on how a 256MB or 512MB model wouldn't be enough to hold the users music collection. Yet I feel that this misses one of the amazing features of digital music players in the future.

Rather than focusing solely on listening to your own music (after all, you already know your taste), a key feature in the future will be listen to some one else's musical favorites.

Musicians, critics, celebrities, historical figures. Sting's 256 MB favorites, the songs that Marolyn Monroe listened to, YoYo Ma's 512MB playlist, etc.

Apple could create a HUGE catalogue of playlists of 2 or 3 set sizes - the user would temporarily download them onto their mini-iPod, listen to them for a couple of days, then download the next one.

These could include regional / international ones, so somone from France, living in another country,could download the latest playlist if they're curious as to what's popular back home. Or someone planning a trip to Zaire or Thailand could here in advance what's happening there.

 

[montecristo]

Re: Are Playlists the key to the small iPods?

Originally posted by CalfCanuck
Much of the discussion on entry level iPods focuses on how a 256MB or 512MB model wouldn't be enough to hold the users music collection. Yet I feel that this misses one of the amazing features of digital music players in the future.

Rather than focusing solely on listening to your own music (after all, you already know your taste), a key feature in the future will be listen to some one else's musical favorites.

Musicians, critics, celebrities, historical figures. Sting's 256 MB favorites, the songs that Marolyn Monroe listened to, YoYo Ma's 512MB playlist, etc.

Apple could create a HUGE catalogue of playlists of 2 or 3 set sizes - the user would temporarily download them onto their mini-iPod, listen to them for a couple of days, then download the next one.

These could include regional / international ones, so somone from France, living in another country,could download the latest playlist if they're curious as to what's popular back home. Or someone planning a trip to Zaire or Thailand could here in advance what's happening there.

This would be a very interesting idea....swap-able playlists with friends etc.
Also, Apple could be able to convince the record companies to release new albums in the flash-card format, so you could either download on iTunes, or (if you are away from your mac) drop into a music store anywhere in he world, pick up the latest album, and pop it into your "iPod Jr." Once prices in flash cards drop enough -- so long, CD! It would be the final nail in the coffin.

 

[tubedogg]

That would be cool, but not gonna happen. If you think about it, the flash cards would have to be at least ~600MB to accomodate CD-equvilant tracks. The nearest card would be 512MB and those are between $100 and $150 each right now, vs. $12 to $20 for a CD.

 

[montecristo]

Originally posted by tubedogg
That would be cool, but not gonna happen. If you think about it, the flash cards would have to be at least ~600MB to accomodate CD-equvilant tracks. The nearest card would be 512MB and those are between $100 and $150 each right now, vs. $12 to $20 for a CD.

True, but (a) prices would drop, and (b) in MP3 format or AAC format you could get an album into a 64 MB card. (That's how the 40GB iPods hold 10,000 songs). The 64 MB cards could easily drop to the $20-$25 level, especially if produced and sold at the volumes CDs are sold at.

 

[tubedogg]

Who would pay $25 for MP3-quality tracks though?

I'm not saying it can't happen but the price on those cards is going to have to nosedive to $5 or less for a 64MB card before this could even conceivably happen.

 

[montecristo]

Originally posted by tubedogg
Who would pay $25 for MP3-quality tracks though?

I'm not saying it can't happen but the price on those cards is going to have to nosedive to $5 or less for a 64MB card before this could even conceivably happen.

I know; I probably wouldn't pay more than a CD for MP3-quality tracks, either.

But, I think Apple (unfortunately) has argued in the past that AAC format is "just as good as" CDs. (I remember them saying this when they released the 3G iPod and the iTunes music store in April). Of course, there IS a difference; the question is whether consumers will be willing to sacrifice the CD quality, for MP3 portability. Apple has clearly been betting that people would, and I know I myself will sacrifice quality at least while I'm out of the house.

Perhaps the more likely scenario is that MP3 albums would co-exist with CDs, for the next few years until (if and when) they figure out how to get the mp3 quality higher, and the price even lower.

 

[Doctor Q]

Would Apple consider using a different compression method for mini iPods, to increase song capacity at the cost of lessened sound quality? Since the capacity will be limited, maybe users would prefer quantity to quality. Personally, I'd rather see Apple stick to their current AAC format and good quality music.

 

[tubedogg]

I'd be extremely surprised if the MiniPod doesn't support everything that the iPod itself supports.

 

[revenuee]

Hmm ... well the idea of a Flash based collection being purchased at a music store may not be viable yet, since Flash cards are still pricey. But this has possibilities. Compression formats getting better, Memory Cards getting cheaper, our obsession with making things smaller

could you imagine a Flash card Changer?

but i think the idea of having pre made playlists available for download on iTunes Store ... would be great.

But then again, wouldn't that be defeat the whole point?

i mean isn't the point to have the music you like? download the tracks you want and make your own CD or having it in Your iPod or player of choice? ... if you start have to download/buy the entire collection then it would be a step backwards ...

but maybe the choice to download the songs you like, from a particular playlist now we are talking

What i would like to see more of is at music stores the ability to mix your own CD's ... walk in, pick the songs you like from the data base... burn the CD, and walk away ... or the ability to fill your Mp3 player at a music store

Since you don't always have access to your computer, you could walk into the music store ... pick some Tracks.. and then, for a few, load them onto your player ... this would be killer at airports, maybe even rather then a person, just have a kiosk set up, a do it your self

 

[montecristo]

Originally posted by revenuee


What i would like to see more of is at music stores the ability to mix your own CD's ... walk in, pick the songs you like from the data base... burn the CD, and walk away ... or the ability to fill your Mp3 player at a music store

The had exactly this idea in the mid-to-late 80's just before the CD. You could walk into a music store (anyone remember Sam Goody's?) and select from a bunch of songs and make your own mix-tape.

This idea completely flopped, I think because it was too pricey and the song selection pretty much sucked (and it took a long time -- no computer searches, just leaving through a book and entering in your selection). But, this time around, the technology is much better and things like iTMS shows that the music industry is willing to sell songs a la carte, in a downloadable format.

 

[revenuee]

Originally posted by montecristo
The had exactly this idea in the mid-to-late 80's just before the CD. You could walk into a music store (anyone remember Sam Goody's?) and select from a bunch of songs and make your own mix-tape.

This idea completely flopped, I think because it was too pricey and the song selection pretty much sucked (and it took a long time -- no computer searches, just leaving through a book and entering in your selection). But, this time around, the technology is much better and things like iTMS shows that the music industry is willing to sell songs a la carte, in a downloadable format.

Well you had to record tapes in real time. 1 hour tape would take 1 hour to make, and someone would have to sit there recording it, and making sure everything went through

Now, just pick the songs you want, hit burn, and in what? 10- 15 minutes the CD is burned?

again, have a few do it yourself Kiosks in music stores for people interested ... acctualy it is my understanding that a few places in LA and NY tried it, but there were limited selections still ...but i guess now with the songs on servers available for easy access, who knows?

 

[tubedogg]

Originally posted by revenuee
Now, just pick the songs you want, hit burn, and in what? 10- 15 minutes the CD is burned?

Or 2 to 3. My consumer CD burner from Liteon takes about 3 minutes for a full 74 minute CD.

 

[revenuee]

Originally posted by tubedogg
Or 2 to 3. My consumer CD burner from Liteon takes about 3 minutes for a full 74 minute CD.

There you go, just strengthens my point .. thanks

then what .. the entire process of selection and Burning would take 10 - 15 minutes?

you don't have to pay a person do work it since it would be a do it yourself kiosk

keep the price at 0.99$ plus the CD plus a charge to use the machine would be implemented I'm sure

so you've got a machine that thats making 15 - 25$ per person ... and can serve 4 people in an hour ... so this thing is now making you 100$ per hour ...

Mind you, i know that people aren't going to be constantly lining up, but the thing could also have search uses of well to find things in the store.

Might eliminate a few teenage jobs though ...

 

[CalfCanuck]

Why does one have to OWN the playlists?

The cool thing about this collection of playlists that I mentioned earlier is that a massive selection of playlists exposes you not only to music you've never heard before (quick, tell me the top 10 songs in Nigeria today), but to innovative and eclectic mixes and selections.

But why does everyone feel you have to own them? Do people refuse to listen to the radio because they don't "own" the songs?

Maybe this collection of playlists could be a monthly subscription (unlimited playlist downloads for $20/month), for playback only. If you find a song you really like, then you "buy" it from a different part of the website.

So the playlists are "consumed" then discarded - you download a new one to replace the one you just trashed. (Monday morning while you're taking a shower, you download the 20 best songs from a Paris-based DJ, Tuesday you trash that playlist and download a classical collection from the conductor of the London Symphony Orchestra, Weds is a Berlin techno collection, Thursday a selction from your favorite rock star, Friday is Brad Pitt day, etc)