Other Is Apple going to hit a Nokia moment?

[erikkfi]

I miss the tactility and durability of the old flip phones. But I'd be surprised if that has anything to do with an iPhone shipment drop. Seems more likely that people are finally reacting to the narrowly iterative year-over-year improvements every time a new one comes out. I'm already baffled that people who had a 14 Pro would upgrade to a 15 Pro.

 

[boss.king]

I miss the tactility and durability of the old flip phones. But I'd be surprised if that has anything to do with an iPhone shipment drop. Seems more likely that people are finally reacting to the narrowly iterative year-over-year improvements every time a new one comes out. I'm already baffled that people who had a 14 Pro would upgrade to a 15 Pro.

Totally agree. Tough economies, ever-increasing prices, and extremely modest year-over-year improvements are what's going to keep people from buying phones as regularly as they used to. I'm on a 13 and I don't see anything in the 15 that warrants an upgrade unless this phone completely dies.

 

[Antoniosmalakia]

If it folds, I don't want it. Sorry, I just don't seem to have the gene that makes me want one. Probably comes from 10 years of using flip phones (1999-2009) and having to fold them to put them away.

Yeah. No.

I’m in the same boat.

I wouldn’t be sucked in to that even if Apple made one.

 

[Fat_Guy]

Blackberry said the same of the original iPhone - is what is being said a lot here and remember what happened there…


Once they get the kinks worked out with screen durability for foldables Apple will be left behind. I don’t think Vision Pro will be the saviour. Tim Cook dosn’t care as he wants Apple to be all about subscriptions and financial services….

 

[Scepticalscribe]

I miss the tactility and durability of the old flip phones.

As do I.

I loved the old flip phones, their portability, their reliability, their durability, the sheer tactile pleasure of holding and using them.

And, I am probably in a minority on these threads, and on this forum, but I detest iPhones (especially, the later manifestations), barely tolerate my iPhone SE, and absolutely abominate the latest massive monsters.

But I'd be surprised if that has anything to do with an iPhone shipment drop. Seems more likely that people are finally reacting to the narrowly iterative year-over-year improvements every time a new one comes out. I'm already baffled that people who had a 14 Pro would upgrade to a 15 Pro.

Completely agree.

 

[BellSystem]

They will eventually. Nobody stays on top forever. The dumb headset will be the start of it. As much as people demand change, as soon as it arrives the want what was old again. Need an example….mid century modern architecture.

 

[AppleFan91]

I’m all for foldable phones once they fix 2 things:

1) The crease in the middle of the screen
2) it doesn’t look stupid thick and awkward when folded (pixel fold looks alright but galaxy fold looks like a bulky brick when folded closed)

Until then - I’m good. I imagine Apple will be coming with one maybe once the tech matures to allow. But unlike a lot of these android manufacturers - Apple has a dedicated tablet that owns the market and they’d risk cannabalizing its sales.

Yes Google and Samsung have tablets but…not really.

 

[ghanwani]

But after that everybody went to the BlackBerrys which didn't fold or flip. That was never the real issue.

BlackBerry made its mark in the business world. Not so much for personal use.

 

[eyoungren]

Except that if they decide their foldable product is their flagship, then the latest and greatest features will be exclusive to it, leaving you with the option of either picking a form factor you don't like or sticking with last year's flagship's technology. This happens with the max phone currently, the cameras is better and only available in the larger pro model.

The last Pro model I purchased was the 11 Pro Max. That was when the 12PM was the current model and the 13 was about six months away.

I purchase infrequently, every 2.5 to 5.5 years. So when I do go to buy, I get what I want because I will be with that device for another long period of time. So that gives me the 'flagship' model. It's only since 2021 though when I bought my 11PM though that I went with a model that wasn't the current version. I still got what I wanted and I saved some money.

But yeah, if Apple decides a foldable is the flagship then I probably won't be getting the 'flagship'.

 

[cutlub]

Has Apple ever said they won't make a foldable? I can't find an example of Cook making a Ballmer quote.

 

[TechnoMonk]

Blackberry said the same of the original iPhone - is what is being said a lot here and remember what happened there…


Once they get the kinks worked out with screen durability for foldables Apple will be left behind. I don’t think Vision Pro will be the saviour. Tim Cook dosn’t care as he wants Apple to be all about subscriptions and financial services….

Apple is doomed! Nothing new, been there forever. I would be worried if the doom talk stops.

 

[HiVolt]

Edit 2: Back then I preferred candy bar design but was in minority. Just like I am now by preferring Touch ID and LCD.

Back in the day I preferred candybars because most flips were thick when folder. Until the RAZR of course. That was a game changer.

When a folding smartphone gets to a folded thickness of modern flagships, I may consider it in the future, also they have to do something about the screen scratch problem.

Until then I will stay with a traditional smartphone format.

 

[boss.king]

BlackBerry made its mark in the business world. Not so much for personal use.

Blackberry was pretty popular where I was at the time even among non-business people, due in large part to BBM. Not as popular as the iPhone is today, but it was the smartphone to beat.

 

[TechnoMonk]

Blackberry was pretty popular where I was at the time even among non-business people, due in large part to BBM. Not as popular as the iPhone is today, but it was the smartphone to beat.

Problem for RIM was they bet on keyboard and iPhone when it was launched was a game changing paradigm. Folded screens aren’t big deal. When screens are flexible, thin, and don’t scratch, it may work. If Apple can make a compact VP, tethered to a phone or Mac, I would totally get one.

 

[Fat_Guy]

Has Apple ever said they won't make a foldable? I can't find an example of Cook making a Ballmer quote.

Blackberry was late to the touch screen and came up with the Storm rushing it. Need I say more…

 

[jaytv111]

By all accounts, Apple is developing foldable iPhones and would release one when they are comfortable with it, when they feel it has the least disadvantages compared to a traditional slab phone.

Blackberry, Palm, Microsoft, and Nokia, on the other hand, were blindsided by the iPhone and Android, and pretty much I’d say they were all years behind where they should have been in developing an iPhone competitor when the iPhone came out. In some cases, a real mature iPhone competitor from those guys took 5 years after the iPhone launched. On the other hand, it’s been 4, going on 5 years after the Galaxy Fold (September 2019). I don’t think folding phones has had that iPhone moment yet, they’ve been a tiny amount of sales of Android phones, never mind phones overall. Are they going to grow, yes, but Apple will have an easier time making a foldable iPhone than Nokia in making their iPhone competitor.

 

[TechnoMonk]

By all accounts, Apple is developing foldable iPhones and would release one when they are comfortable with it, when they feel it has the least disadvantages compared to a traditional slab phone.

Blackberry, Palm, Microsoft, and Nokia, on the other hand, were blindsided by the iPhone and Android, and pretty much I’d say they were all years behind where they should have been in developing an iPhone competitor when the iPhone came out. In some cases, a real mature iPhone competitor from those guys took 5 years after the iPhone launched. On the other hand, it’s been 4, going on 5 years after the Galaxy Fold (September 2019). I don’t think folding phones has had that iPhone moment yet, they’ve been a tiny amount of sales of Android phones, never mind phones overall. Are they going to grow, yes, but Apple will have an easier time making a foldable iPhone than Nokia in making their iPhone competitor.

Apple lost some momentum when they stuck to smaller phones, and the iPhone 6 and above with bigger phones did well. They reacted quickly moving away from those tiny iPhones. It was a good decision, mini sales were really bad though it had vocal minority.

 

[Fat_Guy]

By all accounts, Apple is developing foldable iPhones and would release one when they are comfortable with it, when they feel it has the least disadvantages compared to a traditional slab phone.

Blackberry, Palm, Microsoft, and Nokia, on the other hand, were blindsided by the iPhone and Android, and pretty much I’d say they were all years behind where they should have been in developing an iPhone competitor when the iPhone came out. In some cases, a real mature iPhone competitor from those guys took 5 years after the iPhone launched. On the other hand, it’s been 4, going on 5 years after the Galaxy Fold (September 2019). I don’t think folding phones has had that iPhone moment yet, they’ve been a tiny amount of sales of Android phones, never mind phones overall. Are they going to grow, yes, but Apple will have an easier time making a foldable iPhone than Nokia in making their iPhone competitor.

Blackberry still came out with industry leading things like real swipe gesture controls, assignable buttons - and were one of the first at contactless payment. It was a pain to set up but I tested it at a chicken joint and the cashier was dumbfounded and mentioned something about her job being in jeopardy. I may actually have been one of the first at this in a true retail environment.



I tested that on the new Blackberry Passport running BB10. At launch in Toronto I was at one business and a woman called out “That’s a Passport” and literally a crowd formed around me as I showed them the features. Made two speeches at the UN (one in General Assembly) with one speech reading off the Blackberry with all eyes on the phone as they all used Blackberries but the Passport didn’t launch in the States yet. On the street corners people would start looking sideways at the square phone that they heard about but never saw in the flesh.


I see the same thing happening at Apple. If they really wanted to they could have innovated again like in the beginning but decided to play it safe because of the money involved, and then reacted too late to save itself. Blackberry actually had a winner with the Passport but it was too late. Apple has to learn from that. BTW: The biggest selling point of the Passport, was the one they never mentioned - it was the square screen that meant emails could be read by middle-aged business people without requiring reading glasses.



Anyway, I see ominous parallels here - just saying.

 

[antiprotest]

BlackBerry made its mark in the business world. Not so much for personal use.

Even 5 year olds were using Blackberry.

But my main point, answering the original post, was that it was not the flip or fold that fatally undermined Nokia. In fact, they co-existed for a long time. I went from a Nokia to a flip Motorola and back to a Nokia, before moving to something else, like a SideKick, I think, before moving to several Blackberrys.

The flip or fold will not be what undermines the iPhone, UNLESS, unlike the old flip or fold, the flip or fold is tied to some "killer" feature that is super attractive and that can't be done on a slab phone.

The old flip or fold was never tied to some special feature. There was a piece of plastic that covered the number pad or something like that. If it folds out another screen, or what not, so that the whole thing becomes a tablet, then that could be different. But then the old flip or fold would not be an apt analogy because that was not what undermined Nokia.

But, I am not invested in this opinion and there are no hard feelings if anyone thinks differently.

 

[jaytv111]

Blackberry still came out with industry leading things like real swipe gesture controls, assignable buttons - and were one of the first at contactless payment. It was a pain to set up but I tested it at a chicken joint and the cashier was dumbfounded and mentioned something about her job being in jeopardy. I may actually have been one of the first at this in a true retail environment.



I tested that on the new Blackberry Passport running BB10. At launch in Toronto I was at one business and a woman called out “That’s a Passport” and literally a crowd formed around me as I showed them the features. Made two speeches at the UN (one in General Assembly) with one speech reading off the Blackberry with all eyes on the phone as they all used Blackberries but the Passport didn’t launch in the States yet. On the street corners people would start looking sideways at the square phone that they heard about but never saw in the flesh.


I see the same thing happening at Apple. If they really wanted to they could have innovated again like in the beginning but decided to play it safe because of the money involved, and then reacted too late to save itself. Blackberry actually had a winner with the Passport but it was too late. Apple has to learn from that. BTW: The biggest selling point of the Passport, was the one they never mentioned - it was the square screen that meant emails could be read by middle-aged business people without requiring reading glasses.



Anyway, I see ominous parallels here - just saying.

And I don’t see parallels here. Apple’s better equipped to adapt than Blackberry could ever dream of, or Nokia, or Palm, or even Microsoft.

Not really realistic to imagine every iPhone owner buying a Samsung foldable in the next 1-3 years, and even if so then Apple will respond with a foldable iPhone because they’re already there, by all accounts already developing foldable iPhones, allegedly at least. Blackberry ignored the iPhone, actually had better sales post iPhone until 2011, then began a long decline and BB10 couldn’t reverse it and BB10 was 6 years after the iPhone.

 

[tripper57]

In the article below:
"Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says."

Apple iPhone shipments may see 'significant decline' in 2024, analyst says

Apple may see a drop in iPhone shipments this year, due in part to the growing popularity of foldable phones, analyst Ming-Chi Kuo says.

www.cnbc.com

Remember when everyone was offering clamshell phones and Nokia stubbornly stuck with the candy bar? We're in a slightly different era now but I'm seeing more and more people carrying flip phones.

Edit: I think Flip phones (which open to a regular phone size) are more popular than the Fold phones (which open to a mini tablet). At least that's what I see more people carrying and some iPhone users that I know have switched to those. A second thing is that at its core Apple is an iPhone company. You take that away and everything falls apart.

Edit 2: Back then I preferred candy bar design but was in minority. Just like I am now by preferring Touch ID and LCD.

If there is an epic fail for Apple it is likely to be the Vision Pro, the new commercial with the Goggled Dad in the kitchen trying to interact with his child is proof enough of the narrow market for that expensive device.

 

[Fat_Guy]

And I don’t see parallels here. Apple’s better equipped to adapt than Blackberry could ever dream of, or Nokia, or Palm, or even Microsoft.

Not really realistic to imagine every iPhone owner buying a Samsung foldable in the next 1-3 years, and even if so then Apple will respond with a foldable iPhone because they’re already there, by all accounts already developing foldable iPhones, allegedly at least. Blackberry ignored the iPhone, actually had better sales post iPhone until 2011, then began a long decline and BB10 couldn’t reverse it and BB10 was 6 years after the iPhone.

I don’t believe Apple manufactures its own screens and as such will never be at the forefront of foldable phones. Anything can happen but a Tim Cook future has an end date for phone manufacturing and concentrating on subscription services and financials.



IBM was a hardware manufacturing company and isn’t anymore selling off the server division to Lenovo. Just saying…

 

[jaytv111]

I don’t believe Apple manufactures its own screens and as such will never be at the forefront of foldable phones. Anything can happen but a Tim Cook future has an end date for phone manufacturing and concentrating on subscription services and financials.

I remember the same logic on OLED, Apple doesn’t make any screens while Samsung makes practically all the OLEDs, therefore Samsung will eat Apple alive, this being 6 years ago when the X came out. Doesn’t really stop Apple from selling iPhones since then, and Samsung sells screens to anyone who has money, Apple has money, ergo Samsung will sell foldable screens to Apple too.

 

[rafark]

I hope so. The smartphone industry is so boring rn that I’d love to see someone innovative and succeed.

 

[transpo1]

This is obviously just anecdotal, but everyone I've spoken to who owns a flipping/folding phone has told me they got over the folding very quickly and would be buying a normal slab phone the next time around. Whether they do it or not is another matter, but I've seen very little excitement about them after the initial new gadget honeymoon ends.

EDIT: I just remembered my barber telling me he didn't even bother closing his Z Flip half the time, he would simply put it in his pocket unfolded.

Knowing Apple, if they ever do a folding phone, they will have to find a compelling use case for it beyond what has already been done.