I think you're underestimating a few things
It's not that I think you're necessarily wrong - you've made some good points.
However, there's plenty of arguments grounded in research (researchers have been designing and evaluating smart watches for many years) that suggest they may be successful.
My view right now is that if we can nail the interaction paradigm on a such a small device then I think there'll be a place for smart watches for a decent chunk of us in the next 5 years or so (it's a given they'll get thinner, longer battery, varied designs, more sensors etc.)
Only time will tell!
- as technology gets more pervasive and persistent in our lives, small improvements in interaction can have a notable aggregate effect. A few seconds may not seem much but given frequency many of us use our smart phones over the course of day it can be significant - especially for those very quick checks when getting a notification and making an instant action/no action decisions. We've never 'needed' remote controls for our TVs but how many of us walk up to the TV to change channels?
- a watch doesn't have to be held - the arm takes care of that; meaning hands can be freed up instantly if needed. It's a subtle difference but we see these subtle differences regularly making a difference when testing in real world contexts (I'm a researcher in this area). Our hands are one of our primary ways of engaging in the world and there are times when we need them suddenly and unpredictably, with a watch there's no action needed before diverting the hands to the urgent need. There are some contexts where this is a more frequent occurrence (e.g. sports like rock climbing, some industrial jobs, child care etc.)
- accessibility of a smart phone varies in different contexts. For instance, when I'm sitting down with jeans on I can't take the phone out of my pocket without standing up. Many women carry their phones in bags which are less accessible in different context than pockets (e.g. walking on a busy street) - especially when phones are just thrown in the bag and rummaging is needed!
- there's a lot of potential around health as more sensors will get built in to smart watches. It's a mistake to evaluate the whole future of smart watches based on what we have so far - it's very early days. I suspect there's more sensors in this version than apple has announced so far and it's inevitable future versions will have more (incidentally, HRV can also be calculated by tracking heart rate and that's one way to crudely monitor stress levels). There's no chance my mom will buy one of these things BUT if we get to the point where these perform live health monitoring as she gets older I'd buy her one!
It's not that I think you're necessarily wrong - you've made some good points.
However, there's plenty of arguments grounded in research (researchers have been designing and evaluating smart watches for many years) that suggest they may be successful.
My view right now is that if we can nail the interaction paradigm on a such a small device then I think there'll be a place for smart watches for a decent chunk of us in the next 5 years or so (it's a given they'll get thinner, longer battery, varied designs, more sensors etc.)
Only time will tell!
I get the impression that Ive believed in his and Jobs' ideas and design in the beginning, but he's just sold himself out now... he'll say anything, no matter how far-fetched. I suppose it's a given; Apple needs to sell the world on a new phone each year, and each phone is supposed to be better than the last, otherwise... who would buy it?
In the tech business, they've been pining for a new product category that will shake up the market and generate revenues like the modern smartphone and tablets have. These product categories have made many companies incredibly rich, so it's no surprise that they want another golden egg.
Since no new product type has evolved of its own volition, the industry has been pushing wearables/watches lately as the next major product category, but it's obvious to most people that this category will not be the next smartphone or tablet. This category is being pushed on the consumer by manufacturers, not fueled by consumer desire.
Modern smartphones and tablets have been successful primarily because they fulfill needs and people enjoy using them. This is my opinion, but the watch does not fulfill any real needs, and is not a particularly enjoyable experience.
The smartphone can do everything the watch can, and plenty more. If I want to pay for something, check e-mail, weather, send a message, check my calendar etc., I can do this rather well on my phone. In fact, any activity that requires typing or reading will be a far better experience on the phone. The product demo was pretty ridiculous and far more gimmicky than any demo I can remember from Apple.
We enjoy large screen sizes, so we can feel more comfortable interacting with the device, so it makes little sense to put away the now larger device, only to interact with it through a small, limited device. Most, if not all of Apple's products fulfill needs, and are great at what they do (Mac, iPhone, iPad for example), and this seems to be their weakest offering in recent times.
I think on top of all that, the watch is priced wrong. At $350+ (I think it could be significantly higher with the metal bands and particular finishes) for a new product category that offers little real benefit, it's far too high. They want to market it as jewelry, but it is not jewelry. Jewelry does not depreciate, lack features or become obsolete. No one will be cross shopping Omegas, Tags and the Apple Watch. This is just another tech gadget, and once past the initial excitement phase, I think people will treat it as such.
I see how Apple wants to see it... a new product category with high margins, a new app store with a new revenue stream. Beyond the initial hype, I think it will sell in some quantity, but it definitely won't be another smartphone, where over 70% of the population (in many countries) will have one.