Ok, this is just plain stupid.
1. The whole idea (as I have said before) of waiting for new anything is crap. They don't need a speed bump to update (if they wouldn't have waited so long, see 4 below). From all the posts I have seen people would have been happy with new features that the 12 and 17 have. Need to wait for old enclosures to run out - this is NOT TRUE, promise 100% accurate. How do I know this? Think about it... back in Nov Apple new it would be launching Al PB, for whatever reason the 15 would be left behind. But they could at least start using up or planning on using up their supply of Ti enclosures. Say this didn't happen until January, not Nov. What business (not to mention a high tech business) would keep more than 6 months of inventory around? This is a financial killer. High tech business normally don't have more than 60 days of inventory due to rapid advancements. This arguement is just crap, can we please stop using it as a "reason" why a new 15" PB has not seen the light of day?
2. Year of the laptop. Let's assume Steve was talking about sales on this one. Sales were up and laptops accounted for 46% of their hardware sales. W/O any new updates in any PB line for 6 months (soon to be 6+ at least) I bet you will see this number drop for the last quarter. Hardly a good way to claim a year of the laptop. I would go for just a marketing ploy which would be a major flop given the lack of updates and how it may end up hurting laptop sales - look at how many people are waiting for updates. I know of a few people who gave up and are buying the G5 instead and some potential switchers are going with Dells for back to school.
3. Back to school/general laptop market. While the PB may not be their main EDU buy it is some of the market, why give it up? More importantly, the PB line is more aimed at pro users who are also lured by the new G5. This group has been waiting for a few YEARS for a major update to the desktop line (ok, maybe not yearS) and I am betting most of them will be buying DESKTOPS not laptops. I know a few pro designers that already have a 15Tibook that is 1-2 years old but are sitting with a desktop that is 3-4 years old. They are going to get a new G5 but why get a new laptop? Even if it is updated to the 17" specs (including speed) it would be worth waiting a year to see if a G5 is dropped in the line.
4. Why it is wrong to delay the 15" update. You introduce the 12 and 17 Al PBs. Ohhs and ahhs. People are waiting for the 15" Al and desktop updates. You then introduce the G5 desktop - more ohhs and ahhs, but no 15" update. The 15" has now gone 7 months with no changes, 12 months since the last "major" updates. Finally in August or Sept. the new 15"AlPB is shown (sans a G5 processor). While 2-3 months ago people would have been happy with no or a small speed bump, the introduction of the G5 has fueled their need for speed. Now, a 1.3Ghz G4 doesn't cut it plus they are speculating a G5 release in January. At the very least, people are guessing a G5 would have to arrive by July in the PB line. Sales drop for laptops. Not a good thing for something that makes up 46% of your total hardware sales.
Apple is in a bad position with their laptops. Steve was/is right about how people are looking at laptops more vs desktops. Right now, the PB line is in the same spot the desktop line was before the G5 - limbo. Some might disagree but what did the 12" and 17" do? They didn't boost performance that much. Their main reason was to increase the market reach for the PB line - one reason being to replace the desktop (17") thus the "year of the laptop" statement.
If Apple doesn't introduce a new 15" before July 31, the odds of a G5 appearing in January will most likely be reduced - hurting sales. Apple is almost creating their own "performance" (mghz) myth. Ex. How good can the G3 ibook be when there is the G4 powerbook, but how good can the G4 powerbook be when there is a G5 out there? Sure, laptop chip are not (at least right now) the same as the desktop even on the PC side. But it does effect buyers' impressions.
Sorry for the long rant but I had to get it off my chest. I love my mac and want a laptop. I just am dreading a possible rerun of the past year and half like the desktop line - only in laptops.