Xbox Series X (coming 10 Nov 2020)

[diamond.g]

The era of New Console, and New Games specific to new Console with distinct generations between is over.

Looking at Gamepass now, it's everything from original XBox games, through to Series X optimised. Companies are still releasing new games for Xbone.

The reason to buy the new console, is because you're in the market for a console, and the "new" one is the one Microsoft is selling now. Xbox is a subsidised, turnkey gaming PC, and just like your next gaming PC is just a better specced version of your old gaming PC, that's what (microsoft's) consoles are evolving into.

"Generations" are done, just like "console wars".

If you don't buy a console, but keep using Gamepass on your existing console, you're probably a more profitble customer for Microsoft, than someone who buys every console, but never subscribes.

I think the subscriber rate for GP is pretty high among Xbox owners since you have to have a sub to play online games. I wouldn’t be surprised if more folk have GP subs than PS+ ones.

I am also curious if MS could move away from X86 (in a new console) and still maintain backwards compatibility.

 

[mattspace]

I think the subscriber rate for GP is pretty high among Xbox owners since you have to have a sub to play online games. I wouldn’t be surprised if more folk have GP subs than PS+ ones.

Yup, but there is a fairly substantial market for people who don't have internet connectivity suitable for online gaming. I'm on 100mbps copper-to-fibre, but I can drive 30 minutes to places where geostationary satellite is your only option. Plenty of people like that do offline gaming, and arguably it's more important, because streaming is also non-viable.

I am also curious if MS could move away from X86 (in a new console) and still maintain backwards compatibility.

They've done X86 -> PowerPC -> X86 -> X86 so far, but a better argument is why they'd want to. The major selling point of XBox (for developers) is that it's a freebie if you're developing for Windows, and vice versa. I would expect it to remain on the same processor family as gaming PCs in general.

 

[Pezimak]

Yup, but there is a fairly substantial market for people who don't have internet connectivity suitable for online gaming. I'm on 100mbps copper-to-fibre, but I can drive 30 minutes to places where geostationary satellite is your only option. Plenty of people like that do offline gaming, and arguably it's more important, because streaming is also non-viable.


They've done X86 -> PowerPC -> X86 -> X86 so far, but a better argument is why they'd want to. The major selling point of XBox (for developers) is that it's a freebie if you're developing for Windows, and vice versa. I would expect it to remain on the same processor family as gaming PCs in general.

Official leaked documents from the Activision court cases showed Xbox future console plans, and they consist of an ARM based home console that relies on the cloud for extra processing power to boost games performance.
And if Apple is anything to go by switching to Arm does make it difficult to make older X86 based programmes to work.
But of course Xbox can change its plans.

 

[diamond.g]

Official leaked documents from the Activision court cases showed Xbox future console plans, and they consist of an ARM based home console that relies on the cloud for extra processing power to boost games performance.
And if Apple is anything to go by switching to Arm does make it difficult to make older X86 based programmes to work.
But of course Xbox can change its plans.

Yeah saw that leak, I’d assume that backwards compatibility would rely on xCloud if they went with ARM over x86. I would also be curious to know if they would use “standard” ARM cores or try to come up with something on their own.

It would make exclusives interesting again (maybe). The consoles are all too close these days (IMO).

 

[mattspace]

Official leaked documents from the Activision court cases showed Xbox future console plans, and they consist of an ARM based home console that relies on the cloud for extra processing power to boost games performance.
And if Apple is anything to go by switching to Arm does make it difficult to make older X86 based programmes to work.
But of course Xbox can change its plans.

There's obviously no way of knowing how old those plans are, or whether it's the mainline console, or a lighter weight version - something to replace the series S, or a competitor for the Apple TV (which I think is probably a bigger long term strategic annoyance for MS, because its the home hub thing they've tried to do over and over).

X86 (and its descendents) isn't going anywhere overall - Intel is an American Strategic Asset - there's as much money to prop them up, as there is to keep Nuclear missiles happy in silos, and Boeing making warplanes, despite their airliners falling out of the sky. What ARM does well, is not use power when it's idle, but loaded up, it's not dramatically less power hungry, and consoles don't need to run on battery.

 

[diamond.g]

There's obviously no way of knowing how old those plans are, or whether it's the mainline console, or a lighter weight version - something to replace the series S, or a competitor for the Apple TV (which I think is probably a bigger long term strategic annoyance for MS, because its the home hub thing they've tried to do over and over).

X86 (and its descendents) isn't going anywhere overall - Intel is an American Strategic Asset - there's as much money to prop them up, as there is to keep Nuclear missiles happy in silos, and Boeing making warplanes, despite their airliners falling out of the sky. What ARM does well, is not use power when it's idle, but loaded up, it's not dramatically less power hungry, and consoles don't need to run on battery.

It could leave more power budget for the GPU side of an APU though.

 

[mattspace]

It could leave more power budget for the GPU side of an APU though.

Sure, but how often is a console's CPU idle when the GPU is busy? Regardless, I suspect the "big" Xbox largely exists to be a (single screen) PC for people who don't want to manage a PC, and by the time it can use a different processor to the mainline PC world, the type of processor will be irrelevant to the development and optimisation pathways.

If MS decide to do a mobile Xbox console (Xslab perhaps), something between a game-appliance Switch and a handheld PC Steam Deck, I could easily see them using a custom ARM for that. All your game progress & state syncing through Gamepass, that's a convincing ecosystem argument.

 

[salamanderjuice]

I think the subscriber rate for GP is pretty high among Xbox owners since you have to have a sub to play online games. I wouldn’t be surprised if more folk have GP subs than PS+ ones.

I am also curious if MS could move away from X86 (in a new console) and still maintain backwards compatibility.

Probably. They've already done x86 -> PPC and PPC -> x86 with regards to backwards compatibility. And on Windows they do already have an ARM translation layer for x86/x64 software and it does work for games (albeit with current hardware and drivers nothing too demanding). I think with a fast enough CPU MS could figure it out. You might not get 8K resolution boost or 120 FPS boost but I think they could probably match Series X performance.

 

[Pezimak]

There's obviously no way of knowing how old those plans are, or whether it's the mainline console, or a lighter weight version - something to replace the series S, or a competitor for the Apple TV (which I think is probably a bigger long term strategic annoyance for MS, because its the home hub thing they've tried to do over and over).

X86 (and its descendents) isn't going anywhere overall - Intel is an American Strategic Asset - there's as much money to prop them up, as there is to keep Nuclear missiles happy in silos, and Boeing making warplanes, despite their airliners falling out of the sky. What ARM does well, is not use power when it's idle, but loaded up, it's not dramatically less power hungry, and consoles don't need to run on battery.

We shall see but they will have to of been recent plans as they were submitted as court documents. MS wouldn't be able to of given plans no longer in use. They may have changed them since however it does show their line of thought for the next gen. ARM has become a very big thing now. Nintendo will show its strengths in the portable market again with its new console if rumours and insiders are to be believed. And Apple of course shows its strengths a lot.

 

[Macalicious2011]

If you don't buy a console, but keep using Gamepass on your existing console, you're probably a more profitble customer for Microsoft, than someone who buys every console, but never subscribes.

Last year Xbox signed a billion dollar multi year agreement with the phone/broadband network EE. I think a big bet for MS will be for Gamepass to be bundled with phone/broadband + a WiFi enabled controller. I think MS will put cloud servers at EE infrastructure hubs to reduce latency the same way Netflix stores racks of content with broadband networks.

 

[mattspace]

Last year Xbox signed a billion dollar multi year agreement with the phone/broadband network EE. I think a big bet for MS will be for Gamepass to be bundled with phone/broadband + a WiFi enabled controller. I think MS will put cloud servers at EE infrastructure hubs to reduce latency the same way Netflix stores racks of content with broadband networks.

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Microsoft already does content cache servers for Xbox downloads - they've been doing it for ages. They partner with large ISPs who see service-disrupting-level events when big download releases happen.

It makes sense to pre-purchase traffic priority and latency, especiall with some ISPs getting bolshie about wanting services that use their network to pay for network capital costs, in addition to the access fees. I suspect however that cloud gaming / game streaming is going to be a ways off for anything dependent on latency.

 

[Macalicious2011]

Microsoft already does content cache servers for Xbox downloads - they've been doing it for ages. They partner with large ISPs who see service-disrupting-level events when big download releases happen.

It makes sense to pre-purchase traffic priority and latency, especiall with some ISPs getting bolshie about wanting services that use their network to pay for network capital costs, in addition to the access fees. I suspect however that cloud gaming / game streaming is going to be a ways off for anything dependent on latency.

Stadia launched 5 years ago. Do you think that the following could substantially reduce latency:
-Traffic priority at router and ISP level
-Wifi 6e router
-WiFi 6e direct to cloud controller

 

[mattspace]

Stadia launched 5 years ago. Do you think that the following could substantially reduce latency:
-Traffic priority at router and ISP level
-Wifi 6e router
-WiFi 6e direct to cloud controller

For the subset of people who live in places where infrastructure is capable of delivering the necessary latency, but the Wifi version people have isn't the choke point. It's rare that anyone is going to have an internet connection that is limited by their home router.

Personally, I think cloud-streaming gaming is a daft idea, that will never be particularly successful. It's the soft of thing that people who live in very small tech bubbles think is viable.

 

[diamond.g]

Ya'll see this interview?

Phil Spencer on what the hell is happening in the games industry

"The implications have human impact. And we should all reflect on that and think about it"

www.polygon.com

Looks like MS is warming up to the idea of 3rd party stores on Xbox?

 

[Zest28]

Ya'll see this interview?

Phil Spencer on what the hell is happening in the games industry

"The implications have human impact. And we should all reflect on that and think about it"

www.polygon.com

Looks like MS is warming up to the idea of 3rd party stores on Xbox?

Either the new Xbox Series X 2 will be super expensive (as each console is sold at a loss and they try to recoup the loss through sales commission from the App Store) or the Xbox is dead and they will discontinue it.

If it is the latter, then Microsoft will go 100% on Cloud gaming most likely.

 

[diamond.g]

Either the new Xbox Series X 2 will be super expensive (as each console is sold at a loss and they try to recoup the loss through sales commission from the App Store) or the Xbox is dead and they will discontinue it.

If it is the latter, then Microsoft will go 100% on Cloud gaming most likely.

If they stop selling hardware (which is 1 way to get out of having to support a 3rd party store) they will probably continue buying developers/publishers.

 

[mattspace]

If they stop selling hardware (which is 1 way to get out of having to support a 3rd party store) they will probably continue buying developers/publishers.

Why would microssoft have to allow third party stores on the console? They have physical media, and thousands of third party physical media selling game shops world-wide.

 

[mattspace]

Either the new Xbox Series X 2 will be super expensive (as each console is sold at a loss and they try to recoup the loss through sales commission from the App Store) or the Xbox is dead and they will discontinue it.

So... they sell a version that is unlocked and able to be used with multiple app stores, which costs the full "real" price, and they sell a version which is locked to only the Microsoft store, for the current one-third-of-real-cost price... just like carrier-subsidised cellphones.

And no one buys the full-priced version, because there is literally no demand from anyone, anywhere, for an alternative market digital xbox store.

 

[diamond.g]

Why would microssoft have to allow third party stores on the console? They have physical media, and thousands of third party physical media selling game shops world-wide.

something something EU DMA. Hardware sales in EU are flat and 3rd party devs are already trying to figure out if it is worth releasing games on the platform (supposedly).

So... they sell a version that is unlocked and able to be used with multiple app stores, which costs the full "real" price, and they sell a version which is locked to only the Microsoft store, for the current one-third-of-real-cost price... just like carrier-subsidised cellphones.

And no one buys the full-priced version, because there is literally no demand from anyone, anywhere, for an alternative market digital xbox store.

that is a novel solution, wonder if there would still be complaints.

 

[Macalicious2011]

Ya'll see this interview?

Phil Spencer on what the hell is happening in the games industry

"The implications have human impact. And we should all reflect on that and think about it"

www.polygon.com

Looks like MS is warming up to the idea of 3rd party stores on Xbox?

OMG they are turning xbox into a device on which users can install xbox, epic, rockstar, CDPR and other store fronts. Revolutionary

Hear me out....

Let's call it a PC and rebrand Xbox to Windows

Jokes aside. Allowing 3rd party store is probably a move to appease studios and developers who are contemplating not developing for xbox any more. A bigger share of revenue from sales of games would be a great incentive.

 

[Pezimak]

something something EU DMA. Hardware sales in EU are flat and 3rd party devs are already trying to figure out if it is worth releasing games on the platform (supposedly).

that is a novel solution, wonder if there would still be complaints.

Xbox sales in Europe are reportedly down 47%! PS and Nintendo have dominated the market.

 

[Macalicious2011]

Xbox sales in Europe are reportedly down 47%! PS and Nintendo have dominated the market.

There are also no big exclusives on the horizon to generate some hopium for Xbox. The launch of a new Nintendo and PS5 will make 2025 sales dire for Xbox.

PC gamers who want to play GTA6 will be better off buying a PS5 as they already have access to the majority of xbox titles through gamepass.

 

[diamond.g]

OMG they are turning xbox into a device on which users can install xbox, epic, rockstar, CDPR and other store fronts. Revolutionary

Hear me out....

Let's call it a PC and rebrand Xbox to Windows

Jokes aside. Allowing 3rd party store is probably a move to appease studios and developers who are contemplating not developing for xbox any more. A bigger share of revenue from sales of games would be a great incentive.

My co-worker said MS could do a subsidized version and allow for an unlock for a fee (to cover the difference + some profit). Kind of like how they did Windows 10S.

If they have to make a profit from the hardware (from day 1) then they will have to up the price of said hardware (or get out of the business all together, which they can do since they have Windows).

 

[Macalicious2011]

If they have to make a profit from the hardware (from day 1) then they will have to up the price of said hardware (or get out of the business all together, which they can do since they have Windows).

Reading between the lines they are probably exiting hardware. In an interview a few years ago Phil said that they released a Series S because there won't be much room for dropping the price of the Series X.

Hardware is clearly very expensive now and probably more so because the software stack of ray tracing, upscaling and frame generation significantly increase the R&D costs. Nvidia and AMD are pretty much these days and will likely charge several billions for a custom hardware/software stack for a Series S successor.

One option is to design an Xbox OS for handhelds - a rival to steam deck. They way the brand could grow and continue to prosper but without the burden or hardware sales, distribution and quarterly sales pressure. I bet that Phil is having tough conversations with Satya. Recent murmurs in interviews are probably Phil putting out feelers for potential partners who can inform a strategy that he can put forwards to the MS board in a not too distant future.

 

[diamond.g]

Reading between the lines they are probably exiting hardware. In an interview a few years ago Phil said that they released a Series S because there won't be much room for dropping the price of the Series X.

Hardware is clearly very expensive now and probably more so because the software stack of ray tracing, upscaling and frame generation significantly increase the R&D costs. Nvidia and AMD are pretty much these days and will likely charge several billions for a custom hardware/software stack for a Series S successor.

One option is to design an Xbox OS for handhelds - a rival to steam deck. They way the brand could grow and continue to prosper but without the burden or hardware sales, distribution and quarterly sales pressure. I bet that Phil is having tough conversations with Satya. Recent murmurs in interviews are probably Phil putting out feelers for potential partners who can inform a strategy that he can put forwards to the MS board in a not too distant future.

Why make a separate OS when they already have Windows?