A 5GB Low-End iPod?

[SiliconAddict]

Originally posted by rdas7



As for the next iLife app to go to Windows, it'll have to be iChat. The IM scene on the Windows side is lamentable (too much choice, not enough stability) - and this is what I've been told from Windows users!!! iChat would sell iSights. No other iApp really has that associated hardware link (iPhoto, iMovie, etc.)

Try looking at Trillian 2.0. It blows iChat out of the water when it comes to features http://www.ceruleanstudios.com/products/new_features.php I especially like the fact that Trillian supports AIM’s 128 bit encryption. There have been times I’ve had to send a username\password to a friend to allow him access to my home server. Its nice to know that Blowfish 128 encryption is about as strong as you are going to get. And then there is the number of supported IM services out there. iChat 1. Trillian 5 which includes IRC. Heck with the Trillian’s iChat theme you can even make it look and sound like iChat. I had a friend come over with his ibook and while we were talking I brought up Trillian. The guy did a double take asking when did Apple released iChat for Windows. Priceless.
Personally I don't care for video conferencing which is iChat’s biggest claim to fame. When I talk to someone online I do other things in the background. It’s nearly impossible to multitask when you are face to face, talking. If Apple did release iChat for Windows it’s a pretty good bet that it would be similarly priced to iChat for Mac. (30 bucks.) For that price you could just as easily get Trillian for $25 I just don’t see it happening. iTunes was necessity to win the online music battle, as would be a 5GB iPod. iChat isn’t a necessity.
And the topic has been brought up before. With AOL and Apple in bed together with iTMS it’s a relatively small leap for the AIM client to support the iSight without needing to go out and rewrite an app from scratch. (i.e. iChat.)

 

[pkradd]

Apple would never come out with a flash memory MP3 player. That's going backwards. And they certainly would not call it an iPod (which they won't because it ain't gonna happen). However, a 5 Gig model for between $149 and $199 is possible. Toshiba makes the hard drives. If Apple orded enough I'm sure they'd make the 5 Gig for them. Apple could use the original form factor (slightly larger) with perhaps removeable batteries instead of rechargeable (to save money) as well as the mechanical wheel and no dock. It's possible. But probably not going to happen for a while. But Apple does say "some surprises" for November 28th at the retail stores. So we'll have to wait and see.

 

[ClimbingTheLog]

The Toshiba 5GB hdd in the PCMCIA formfactor regularly sells for $199.

The iPod electronics are alot more expensive than a PCMCIA controller, so Apple would have to accept lower margins to do it at that price.

They're in the business of selling iTunes as a loss-leader for iPods, not the other way around. They'd have to change their business plan to make this work. Maybe that's what McDonald's and Pepsi are about, but that's not the advice they've been giving investors.

Still, a 10GB $199 iPod would clear the shelves for Christmas.

 

[the_mole1314]

Originally posted by ClimbingTheLog
The Toshiba 5GB hdd in the PCMCIA formfactor regularly sells for $199.

The iPod electronics are alot more expensive than a PCMCIA controller, so Apple would have to accept lower margins to do it at that price.

They're in the business of selling iTunes as a loss-leader for iPods, not the other way around. They'd have to change their business plan to make this work. Maybe that's what McDonald's and Pepsi are about, but that's not the advice they've been giving investors.

Still, a 10GB $199 iPod would clear the shelves for Christmas.

As I've said before, HAVE YOU HEARD OF MASS DISCOUNTS?

 

[toughboy]

well...

I'm sure that nobody has problems with an extra 5 gbs..

so then the reason why apple shall release 5gb iPods when they have 10gbs is the price!.. isnt it...

people dont want to pay extra 100 dolars (or something like that) for that extra 5 gbs that they "may" use, but dont really need...

then...

if the only reason is price or "money" then why dont we expect or want discount for holiday season on 10gbs??? not 100$ but 50 maybe..

this seems more logical than expecting Apple to make up another niche market to work on!...

 

[MongoTheGeek]

Originally posted by the_mole1314
As I've said before, HAVE YOU HEARD OF MASS DISCOUNTS?

Mass discounts aside I doubt anything thinks that it costs Apple anywhere near $300 to build an iPod.

Looking at the prices a 5gb iPod *should* retail for $250. Most of that will be profit though. I don't think they could convince people to but that when the 10g is only $50 more. (think supersize...)

Apple might cut prices to the point where they aren't making $100 each. That was the number I saw yesterday of someone's estimate of how much the non HD components are. It sounds reasonable to me. The only components that I have priced before that go into it are the batteries and his number there looked high. (Don't think replacement battery costs, thats like thinking Ink Jet cartridges)

Assuming disk space is linear (and not marked up!) The non hd components retail for $200. That is $100 on each unit.

As someone pointed out ITMS is a loss leader for iPods. If Apple squeezes better terms they will gladly reverse it and the iPod prices will crater.

 

[FlamDrag]

I disagree that iPod prices could ever - and I rather dislike using terms such as "ever, always, never" - crater as you put it. It's just my opinion, but it is difficult for me to imagine Apple taking a loss on hardware.

Furthermore Apple would have to get an crazy-sweet deal from RIAA to sell songs for less significantly less than 99 cents. For the sake of argument, let's pretend that Apple could sell them for... 49 cents and make 20 cents / song vs their current 10. So they make double what they make now. In order for Apple to stay even on the deal - they would have to bank on a new iPod owner purchasing 100 songs for every $10 they reduced the price of an iPod. A $10 reduction on a $299 item probably isn't significant enough to make many people "pull the trigger" on an iPod purchase that would not have at the original price.

I would guess that the minimum price reduction to be seen as significant is at least $20 or 200 songs in my scenario above. That's a lot of songs for every new iPod user to buy. From an economic standpoint, I'd rather have that $20 now than spread out over the 10 months (at the generous rate of 20 songs per month) that a user might buy songs on iTMS.

Granted, Apple's costs on the iPod may go down significantly allowing them to make it all work, but at this point, we already have a significant amount of "if if if" which leads me to find an "iPod selling iTMS songs" scenario highly unlikely. Rather I can imagine a time with both the iTMS and iPod make money.

Just my thoughts. Feel free to disagree.

 

[jxyama]

not sure if it's been mentioned, but kodawarisan is reporting the revival of 5 GB iPod for the holidays... $199.

CORRECTION: actually, he doesn't say "revived." i think he meant a 5 GB iPod being introduced - it's probably the same form factor as the 3rd gen. iPods.

 

[the_mole1314]

And from what I'm hearing, it might even be slimmer.....

 

[ceriess]

I still haven't bought an ipod, even though I have over 10gb of music that I would love to have with me more or less all the time. I just keep thinking that when I buy one, Steve-O will release the next gen. The one that plays video, ya know?

 

[sjcaguy]

Arg.

I was going to place my order tomorrow for a 10GB iPod and my new iBook...they can't configure the machine in the store like I want it.

Should I wait to see what happens on Friday at the in-store event, or should I just suck it up and place the order?

 

[Doctor Q]

Originally posted by sjcaguy
Should I wait to see what happens on Friday at the in-store event, or should I just suck it up and place the order?

You might as well wait for Friday and find out what your choices and their prices turn out to be.

 

[stingerman]

The Flash Player and hard drive player markets are two different markets and never the twain shall meet. Apple is not in the Flash market now, but they need to be if they want iTunes to have 100% coverage.

Will this hurt iPod sales: No. Why? Because flash players already exist and people are still buying iPods. Only there are no flash players that play AAC with Fairplay DRM. The Flash player market is not going away.

Why an Apple flash player? Because it will be the first exposure to MP3 portable players for over 50% of the market. And, the market is growing very fast. The theory is Joe/Jane Public buys a 128MB or 256 MB player to use with iTunes. They use it day to day. It fits on their key ring small and nice and you can transfer files with it too.

As time goes on, the value of the MP3 device grows to become essential. Your music collection continues to grow and swapping music back and forth is a hassle. It sure would be nice to have 10GBs and you'll get your Calendar, Address book, task list etc. for just $100 or so more than the price of a flash player. Since all your music is already AAC with Fairplay (iTunes Music Store) the iPod is the natural upgrade.

And you get to keep the neat Apple Flash player. In fact, I can see some households having both flash players and iPods.

I think this secret device is a Flash Player. And Apple would sell 10's of millions of them and they in turn will sell millions of iPods. Apple sells iSights for $149, OS X for $149 and KeyNote for $99 so adding these gadgets to their portfolio of products should generate more than iSight and Keynote combined: a 64MB iFlash for $99, a 128MB iFlash for $149 and a 256MB iflash for $199 is a reasonable conjecture.

 

[stingerman]

what do you think?

 

[stingerman]

One more thing: itunes would only need to be adjusted to recognize the iFlash and create a special folder for it so you can easily sync while staying within its memory limit. Like the remote iDisk currently works with Panther.

 

[mkjj]

5GB iPod

A 5 Gb iPod won't happen, as others have stated all Apple will do is reduce the price of the 10GB. I have a 30gb Pod with 2,335 songs on taking 11GB of space plus about 4GB of photos and files when used as a hard drive, don't forget folks this is always another use for the Pod!
Technology never usually goes backward, having said that, the new G4 iBook 12 inch has 10GB less HD space than my G3 900 which nobody seems to have picked up on, strange decision that?

Maybe a 5GB Pod may happen after all!

iMac 17", iPod 30gb, 900 G3 iBook, Twentieth Ann Mac, G3 500/128ram-10/100

 

[the future]

Originally posted by stingerman
The Flash Player and hard drive player markets are two different markets and never the twain shall meet. Apple is not in the Flash market now, but they need to be if they want iTunes to have 100% coverage.

Will this hurt iPod sales: No. Why? Because flash players already exist and people are still buying iPods. Only there are no flash players that play AAC with Fairplay DRM. The Flash player market is not going away.

Why an Apple flash player? Because it will be the first exposure to MP3 portable players for over 50% of the market. And, the market is growing very fast. The theory is Joe/Jane Public buys a 128MB or 256 MB player to use with iTunes. They use it day to day. It fits on their key ring small and nice and you can transfer files with it too.

As time goes on, the value of the MP3 device grows to become essential. Your music collection continues to grow and swapping music back and forth is a hassle. It sure would be nice to have 10GBs and you'll get your Calendar, Address book, task list etc. for just $100 or so more than the price of a flash player. Since all your music is already AAC with Fairplay (iTunes Music Store) the iPod is the natural upgrade.

And you get to keep the neat Apple Flash player. In fact, I can see some households having both flash players and iPods.

I think this secret device is a Flash Player. And Apple would sell 10's of millions of them and they in turn will sell millions of iPods. Apple sells iSights for $149, OS X for $149 and KeyNote for $99 so adding these gadgets to their portfolio of products should generate more than iSight and Keynote combined: a 64MB iFlash for $99, a 128MB iFlash for $149 and a 256MB iflash for $199 is a reasonable conjecture.

Good thinking. I absolutely agree.

 

[Rod Rod]

stop the class-talk

Originally posted by Steven1621
hmm i think the idea of a "bargain" ipod will devalue the product line. the ipod is the most prestigious player on the market and i feel that making a cheap model might make it rather "bourgeoisie" to a certain extent. while i certainly believe that more people with apple products is better, i also think that apple must do all it can to preserve the allure of the ipod, considering the number of similar players that are considerably cheaper (Dell).

Making a "cheap" model should hopefully not make the iPod "bourgeoisie." A "cheap" model should make the iPod proletarian. Let's stop the class talk because it makes Apple people look like snobs. There's nothing wrong with having both prestige and market share, and both high quality and reasonable prices. Neither pair should be mutually exclusive.

 

[sethypoo]

Re: stop the class-talk

Originally posted by Rod Rod
Making a "cheap" model should hopefully not make the iPod "bourgeoisie." A "cheap" model should make the iPod proletarian. Let's stop the class talk because it makes Apple people look like snobs. There's nothing wrong with having both prestige and market share, and both high quality and reasonable prices. Neither pair should be mutually exclusive.

That makes sense, but I still think if people want a cheap flash MP3 player, they should go somewhere other than Apple, because Apple *is* high quality for a high price.

 

[macFanDave]

$99 5 GB iPod...

with the purchase of any Mac.

with the purchase of a .Mac subscription.

with the purchase of AppleCare.

- or -

Did you see how HP won the Michigan school laptop contract by quoting them $275 per student per year including maintenance and tech support? They will lose money, but at least no one else won.

A $99 iPod would destroy all of the WMA competitors since they are just slightly less expensive than currrent iPods. Since AAC is like Betamax and WMA is like VHS, maybe Apple will take a hit to avoid Sony's fate. What if Sony had undercut the major VHS competitors early in the video era?

Just a theory.

 

[drbyers]

the Toshiba harddrives Apple uses for the iPod are the same ones VST Tech uses for their ultra portable "Firefly" and "FireLight" hard drive line.

I bought a 5GB Firefly two years ago for $100, and that was TWO YEARS AGO. so who says Apple couldn't produce a $100 5G iPod today without meeking out a profit?

Manufacturing works like this: the more you make, the cheaper the product becomes to manufacture.

Those original Toshiba hard drives should do the trick just fine, IMO.

 

[Tulse]

I bought a 5GB Firefly two years ago for $100, and that was TWO YEARS AGO. so who says Apple couldn't produce a $100 5G iPod today without meeking out a profit?

I'm extremely impressed, given that the MSRP for the Firefly in 2001 was $200 (as this review shows). And if it costs $200 retail just for an enclosed drive, imagine adding an LCD display, audio encoding and decoding hardware, touch-sensitive controls, a battery, earphones, etc. etc.

And yeah, Apple gets a volume discount from Toshiba. Presumably, so does the manufacturer of the Firefly. $200 is probably a good estimate of how much a basic 1.8" 5G hard drive can be sold and still make a profit.

Don't get me wrong -- I'd love for Apple to release a $200 iPod. I just don't think they can and make money.

I guess we'll find out tomorrow.

 

[drbyers]

wanna see my receipt? I bought it from Apple's online store. heehee.

they musta had a deal worked out with VST. who am i to complain that they might have listed the selling price wrong?

 

[CalfCanuck]

Originally posted by mrsebastian
for those that think apple will ever use flash cards instead of hard drives, you've had too many pan-galactic gargle blasters. the price/storage ratio is just way too high!

I couldn't disagree more! 0's and 1's don't care where they are stored, and neither does Apple. If a 50 GB Flash storage device came out cheaper than a HD, Apple would (and should) jump ship overnight.

Compact flash and hard disks tangled once before in another portable, high "abuse" market where the HD had the early advantage, and the HD got it's ass kicked! I'm talking about digital photography, where the stakes were high and people were (are) willing to pay a fortune.

For my first Canon D30 in Dec 2000 I bought a 1GB IBM microdrive for about $800, as comparably priced Compact Flash cards were 25 percent of the storage size. The Microdrives had a few problems holding up to the bumps and jostles of everyday use, but they had the initial capacity/price advantage.

Fast forward to late 2003. The high end Compact Flash cards have a capacity of 4 GB and transfer rates pushing 10 MB/sec. It's called technological progress! Now these high end cards ain't cheap, at least not yet. But my Microdrive has sat in a drawer for the last year, as the 512 MB cards came down in price (in Mar 2003 I bought my third 512 MB card, for $99 with manufacturer rebate).

I can go buy a retail 1GB Compact Flash card for $225 today (B&H Photo). And don't forget we're talking about LAST year's production processes for these current prices. I'm sure there must be some new fabrication line ramping up, that would LOVE to get an order for 100,000 chips (even just above cost) to bring down their average cost for their retail units that will swamp the market this "digital" christmas.

So if Apple wants to drop a 512 MB flash card in a cheap unit, they could find a producer to work with a low price point.

Secondly, everyone seems of two minds about a unit like this - either it's too small in storage, or it would cripple the high end units. Well, just listen to yourselves - that merely proves that a company CAN have a high end (unlimited storage of music at high prices) AND a low-end (limited storage at a bargain price) that exist at the same time. Ever heard of Powerbook and iBook? Powermac and eMac?

Whether Apple will do this "ePod" or not now is unclear, but a couple of things are clear.

1. Apple wants to remain the music download vehicle of choice.
2. iPods are where the users store portable downloaded music
3. $400 is too high a price for entry users
4. Low end users WILL move upmarket after they are satisfied w the product
5. Low and high end "music storage devices" can co-exist, and even fuel sales of the high-end units over time, if the fundamental concept works.

 

[Lancetx]

10% off iPods and accessories - Today Only

Well, looks like the big sale is just a one day only 10% off deal. No 5GB iPods either. I'm sure there will be some disappointed people, but the 5GB for $99 rumor was rather unrealistic for anyone to expect anyway.