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Dvorak on MBAir and the Apple stock plunge
- Thread starter akadmon
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Yeah, the MB is so not portable.
Greed makes everything heavier. It's amazing how many people try to justify the MBA by pointing to the MB and MBP as unacceptably leaden laptops. Search back a few months, and you'd find half of them declaring how their MB/Ps (or the MB/P in general) were everything a person could wish for in a laptop.
If and when Apple releases a 2lb or 1lb laptop, you'll see the former fans of the 3lb MBA talking about how they NEED the 1lb laptop because the Air was just "too heavy" for their needs. And even when you pull up their posts from back when they were vigorously defending the MBA, they still won't see how this has more to do with greed than it could ever have to do with weight.
Let's see you are betting that Apple stock will be less than $100 by Friday, February 1st. Correct?
Hmmm...
Want to place a new MBA with SSD on that?
Just joking since we can't bet on the forums. But my point is, many would disagree with you about the share price.
Well to do it effectively, takes talent.
Who uses the Ethernet cable in the hotel room?
I carry my AE with me. So much more convenient than being tied to the short Ethernet cable that the hotel usually has available. And the AE is a much nicer solution than a patch cord.
Let's see you are betting that Apple stock will be less than $100 by Friday, February 1st. Correct?
Hmmm...
Want to place a new MBA with SSD on that?
Just joking since we can't bet on the forums. But my point is, many would disagree with you about the share price.
Well to do it effectively, takes talent.
Who uses the Ethernet cable in the hotel room?
I carry my AE with me. So much more convenient than being tied to the short Ethernet cable that the hotel usually has available. And the AE is a much nicer solution than a patch cord.
Exactly! I think most of the naysayers about the Macbook air never really travelled to appreciate what a lightweight laptop can offer on the road.
For example, I'm in Manila, Philippines. If I need some hi-speed data, I can connect to the Smart HSPDA network using bluetooth, pan networking and my treo 700w. No wires needed. I get reliable 700kbps connection for 25cents per 30 minutes.
Wires are overated!
Some do, some don't!
The obvious is that the Macbook Air is not a desktop replacement. So the ones that do, should not buy the Air.
Some do, some don't!
The obvious is that the Macbook Air is not a desktop replacement. So the ones that do, should not buy the Air.
Being the guy who started the thread, I think I need to chime in.
I've been using Macs/following Apple on&off since 1987 (I used to lug my Mac Plus to work every day as though it was a portable!), so I'm well aware of the fact that Dvorak is to Apple what Ron Borges is to the New England Patriots (you have to be from Boston to get the Ron Borges reference, sorry ) Still, in the case of his assessment of MBAir and its impact (or rather lack thereof) on Apple's bottom line, I must say I agree with him. Sure, some nit-pickers can argue that he has a few of his facts wrong (the battery comes to mind), yet this does not change the distinct possibility that Apple (Steve Jobs) appear to have miscalculated here, big time. Had they come out with a true ultra-portable, a 12", maybe even an 11" machine, one that, while perhaps not being the as thin as MBAir, had more main stream features (DVD drive, >1 USB port, ethernet), they would have had themselves a huge hit on their hands, despite the fact that it would not have been not much different than want the Sonys of this world have had out there for a while.
The moral of the story is: thinking different is not always smart thinking.
I've been using Macs/following Apple on&off since 1987 (I used to lug my Mac Plus to work every day as though it was a portable!
), so I'm well aware of the fact that Dvorak is to Apple what Ron Borges is to the New England Patriots (you have to be from Boston to get the Ron Borges reference, sorry ) Still, in the case of his assessment of MBAir and its impact (or rather lack thereof) on Apple's bottom line, I must say I agree with him. Sure, some nit-pickers can argue that he has a few of his facts wrong (the battery comes to mind), yet this does not change the distinct possibility that Apple (Steve Jobs) appear to have miscalculated here, big time. Had they come out with a true ultra-portable, a 12", maybe even an 11" machine, one that, while perhaps not being the as thin as MBAir, had more main stream features (DVD drive, >1 USB port, ethernet), they would have had themselves a huge hit on their hands, despite the fact that it would not have been not much different than want the Sonys of this world have had out there for a while. The moral of the story is: thinking different is not always smart thinking.
as a former store employee, i can simply say that a lot of people around here just don't get it. the average mac customer today doesn't think like the 'tech-savvy'.
any idea how many people came to me saying how the macbook was 'too heavy' or that the screen was 'too small'? so these people usually ended up buying pros. some people didn't like the white/black casing so they opted for the aluminum. customers will be blown away with how slim and 'cool looking' the air is. and they'll snatch them up like hotcakes. 10% of these people will need a mac for anything more than word processing and internet/mail browsing.
so the notion that the air will fail because the 13.3" screen is too big, or that it doesn't have enough 'features'. that's not what this computer is designed to sell for. touch trackpad, slim factor, cool factor, these are the major things that will move air's out the warehouse. and they will move. if it was easy to sell pro's at $1999 to customers who didn't need this kind of machine...
any idea how many people came to me saying how the macbook was 'too heavy' or that the screen was 'too small'? so these people usually ended up buying pros. some people didn't like the white/black casing so they opted for the aluminum. customers will be blown away with how slim and 'cool looking' the air is. and they'll snatch them up like hotcakes. 10% of these people will need a mac for anything more than word processing and internet/mail browsing.
so the notion that the air will fail because the 13.3" screen is too big, or that it doesn't have enough 'features'. that's not what this computer is designed to sell for. touch trackpad, slim factor, cool factor, these are the major things that will move air's out the warehouse. and they will move. if it was easy to sell pro's at $1999 to customers who didn't need this kind of machine...
What you are not REALLY getting is the MBA is where the industry is going in terms of notebooks and over time desktops. The world is going in the direction of web based apps and storage and all this unnecessary hardware will diminish.
Just go back in history 5 years ago. We were burning CD's and DVD burning was still on very specific and expensive machines from Apple and very little PC's had them.
Fast forward a few years and nearly ever computer has a DVD burner and then shortly after dual layer has become the standard.
Now we are entering Blu-Ray or HD-DVD and that's still not decided which will be the standard.
Now today, we are downloading music rather than buying CD's to play. We are downloading movies and renting them from the internet rather than wasting $20.00 on a DVD.
The world is going web based and CD's and DVD are becoming so yesterday. The MBA is on track for where we are all going and if you don't see it then maybe you should be using cassette tapes and running Windows 3.1 and connect to dialup.
Yeah, the MB is so not portable.
Do you realise how much stuff some people have to carry around with them? Even shaving an inch off the thickness of the laptop makes a huge difference to the load you need to carry (the difference between being able to fit everything in one bag or two).
Greed makes everything heavier. It's amazing how many people try to justify the MBA by pointing to the MB and MBP as unacceptably leaden laptops. Search back a few months, and you'd find half of them declaring how their MB/Ps (or the MB/P in general) were everything a person could wish for in a laptop.
If and when Apple releases a 2lb or 1lb laptop, you'll see the former fans of the 3lb MBA talking about how they NEED the 1lb laptop because the Air was just "too heavy" for their needs. And even when you pull up their posts from back when they were vigorously defending the MBA, they still won't see how this has more to do with greed than it could ever have to do with weight.
I don't care about weight. It could weigh 10lbs for all I care. I care about thickness. That is what makes something portable in my eyes.
The MacBook is 1.08 inch in total, so shaving off an inch would be quite a feat indeed
What, doesn't anyone care what Dvorak has to say?
I never did care what he had to say - he may have been an icon for the Mac community at one point, but he's ALWAYS been an idiot.
There is no evidence to support such a cut-and-dry statement regarding the MBAs success in the market. I, for one, would be shocked if this thing sells much. It doesn't have any power, the real world testing that I've read shows that it gets way less than 5 hours of battery life, and they removed all but one inputs (1 usb). Where is the demand for a product for this, in the marketplace?
I was personally waiting for this MWSF to give us a great new product. I figured it was going to be a return to the 12" powerbook. Instead they unveiled an lighter macbook with less power. Thrilling. I'm just gonna buy a MBP when they put Penryn chips in them. Till then this wicked slow iBook 1.33 will have to do. For shame, apple. I have money burning a hole in my account until there is something worth buying. I want that cool-running penryn and possibly an upgrade gpu.
Separate from the MBA discussion, I am amazed that any analysts are looking at individual performance of stocks right now and attributing their performance to anything but the market.
Apple had great results as did Microsoft in calendar Q4. Apple provided a conservative look at the months to come with some pessimism about consumer spending. We are looking at big down turn in the economy right now and most stocks are down when compared to Q4. It's relatively simple to see that.
(also in a tightening consumer market, Apple which sells goods that are higher than average in many categories, would tend to feel the pinch first before let's say eMachines/Gateway/Acer)
Apple had great results as did Microsoft in calendar Q4. Apple provided a conservative look at the months to come with some pessimism about consumer spending. We are looking at big down turn in the economy right now and most stocks are down when compared to Q4. It's relatively simple to see that.
(also in a tightening consumer market, Apple which sells goods that are higher than average in many categories, would tend to feel the pinch first before let's say eMachines/Gateway/Acer)
Because the economy has gone to ****.
The DJIA is down almost 2000 points (over 10%), NASDAQ is down like 500 points (~15%) in the past 3 months.
The MacBook is 1.08 inch in total, so shaving off an inch would be quite a feat indeed
Meh, you know what I meant
.
I think Dvorak is right on many points, just because you don't agree with him doesn't mean he is wrong. I am amazed that Apple has gotten this "can't do no wrong" attitude by people. Apple is far from a saint company by any means. Listen to a few episodes of his podcast, don't just take his stuff out of context.
I have come to the conclusion that the MBA is so highly emotionally charged that its pointless trying to have a rational discussion on its merits or lack there of... Very much reminds me of the iPod spectacle all those years ago...
I will enjoy mine in the knowledge that it is the BEST machine out there for ME at ANY price.
If it is discontinued in 1 months time at least it will have served its purpose for me and I will own one. Ill just have to take more care of it than I usually do as I won't be able to replace it!
Regards,
C
I will enjoy mine in the knowledge that it is the BEST machine out there for ME at ANY price.
If it is discontinued in 1 months time at least it will have served its purpose for me and I will own one. Ill just have to take more care of it than I usually do as I won't be able to replace it!
Regards,
C
I don't think this is the point at all. What never fails to amaze me is the number of people who are prepared to instantly condemn a product just because they don't have a particular use for it. The worst part about this constant moaning and groaning is that we hear it every time Apple releases a new product, and even when they don't. It's like Apple is somehow in business to please them personally every day of the week, and with each and every new product they release. It's this "can do no right" attitude which I find so strange.
Apple now sells seven laptop models, eight if you include the black version of the MacBook. I say, buy the one you like, and stop carping about the others.
What people? No product is designed for everybody. I've heard the exact same gripes about each and every product Apple has shipped -- somebody always thinks it's got some fatal flaw, the only evidence of which is that they don't like something about it. That's ridiculous.
As for "quick money grabs" -- I hardly know how to respond, other than to make the obvious observation that if you don't like that product for the money, then please, please don't buy it. But also please please don't try to tell me that Apple has made some kind of terrible mistake just because you don't like it. And to date, this is the only reason anyone has ever stated for why they believe the MBA is a bad product.
It's impossible to say who is ultimately going to be right about the MB Air. In fact, unless it gets the official boot from the Mac lineup, we may never really know how well it does, since, correct me if I'm wrong, Apple does not release sales figures for individual models (heck, nobody even knows how many Mac Pros have been sold!).
While it is clear that the majority of the people on MR find that the MB Air does not appeal to them, this fact alone may not be a good enough indicator of how the average consumer will view this machine. It may come as news to some around here, but the average consumer has only a vague idea of what RAM, RPM, ethernet, USB, GHz, processor cores etc. are, and has absolutely no clue about things like Penryn and Santa Rosa (who comes up with these names anyway?!). People with enough cash may buy the MB Air on looks alone, God bless them. Ignorance is bliss! Case in point, a year and a half or so ago, on the day the first C2D iMacs were announced, I was in the Cambridge (MA) Apple store and I witnessed a sales guy pushing the freshly obsolete CD iMac onto an elderly lady, without bothering to let her know that a new, more powerful, less expensive model was about to hit the street in a few days. To say I was seething on the inside would be an understatement! I waited for the guy to go to the back of the store (presumably to get the iMac) and told this lady what was up. I don't think the poor thing understood a single word I said. I just couldn't take it anymore and left the store in disgust, without ever confronting the thug who was about to take advantage her. Sad.
While it is clear that the majority of the people on MR find that the MB Air does not appeal to them, this fact alone may not be a good enough indicator of how the average consumer will view this machine. It may come as news to some around here, but the average consumer has only a vague idea of what RAM, RPM, ethernet, USB, GHz, processor cores etc. are, and has absolutely no clue about things like Penryn and Santa Rosa (who comes up with these names anyway?!
). People with enough cash may buy the MB Air on looks alone, God bless them. Ignorance is bliss! Case in point, a year and a half or so ago, on the day the first C2D iMacs were announced, I was in the Cambridge (MA) Apple store and I witnessed a sales guy pushing the freshly obsolete CD iMac onto an elderly lady, without bothering to let her know that a new, more powerful, less expensive model was about to hit the street in a few days. To say I was seething on the inside would be an understatement! I waited for the guy to go to the back of the store (presumably to get the iMac) and told this lady what was up. I don't think the poor thing understood a single word I said. I just couldn't take it anymore and left the store in disgust, without ever confronting the thug who was about to take advantage her. Sad.
Apple doesn't usually break down their sales by Mac model. At least, I've never seen them do it.
First, I don't accept the judgment that the majority of MacRumors readers don't find the MBA appealing. This is at best anecdotal evidence -- and for what, I don't know. We've heard essentially the same sorts of gripes about every product Apple has released -- so how useful can that evidence be? Second, I don't appreciate the suggestion that those who think this product has merits are ignorant. We've heard this kind of contempt and derision before, and it doesn't get any better with repetition.
I will agree with your assessment that the majority of computer buyers don't have more than a nodding knowledge or interest in technical specifications. The big difference in views is that I think this is a good thing, not a sign of stupidity. Apple has made a place for itself in the PC world by making products that appeal for reasons other than technical specifications. I would have thought that Mac owners would be a little more tolerant of individuals making choices that aren't precisely the same ones they would make, but I guess that's not the case.
Sadly I am hearing a lot of the same propeller-head dogma from Mac owners lately that has always colored the Windows world. I suppose as the pool of Mac owners increases that's bound to happen, but I don't have to be happy about it.
First, I don't accept the judgment that the majority of MacRumors readers don't find the MBA appealing. This is at best anecdotal evidence -- and for what, I don't know. We've heard essentially the same sorts of gripes about every product Apple has released -- so how useful can that evidence be? Second, I don't appreciate the suggestion that those who think this product has merits are ignorant. We've heard this kind of contempt and derision before, and it doesn't get any better with repetition.
I will agree with your assessment that the majority of computer buyers don't have more than a nodding knowledge or interest in technical specifications. The big difference in views is that I think this is a good thing, not a sign of stupidity. Apple has made a place for itself in the PC world by making products that appeal for reasons other than technical specifications. I would have thought that Mac owners would be a little more tolerant of individuals making choices that aren't precisely the same ones they would make, but I guess that's not the case.
Sadly I am hearing a lot of the same propeller-head dogma from Mac owners lately that has always colored the Windows world. I suppose as the pool of Mac owners increases that's bound to happen, but I don't have to be happy about it.
My problem with the MBA is that it has no real functionality, it looks great but that is about it. Apple has gotten to a point of over charging and not giving you anything in return. For what it offers the MBA should be the lowest end of the laptop line. I would not consider it to be a high end machine. For it to be practical you have to spend another few $100 to get the proper add ons that should be included with the machine to begin with. I would rather spend the money on something that will give me usefulness rather then just eye candy.