Kinda doubt about Vision Pros' future.

[Night Spring]

I get up at 4am, have meetings from 5am to 2pm, work til 8, sometimes 11pm. I'm definitely the wrong person to have this conversation with.

I don't understand what your work hours have to do with our conversation.

Apple is not the company it was in 1977 or 1985, and the marketplace isn't what it was then either. Apple is now a $2.8 trillion company. Both in terms of continuing to generate a positive return for investors and to continue changing the world in ways that people expect of them, what they choose to do with it has implications for the entire product ecosystem around MR.

I face the same problem year over year trying to continue to grow my retirement... At the scale my portfolio is now, continuing to generate the same CAGR (compounded annual growth rate) year in and year out gets harder and harder to do. I can't invest in the things I used to invest in and maintain that growth.

I've never understood the urge to pursue constant growth. It seems illogical to me to think that anything could grow forever. Like, if everyone on Earth buys an iPhone, that's it. There's no more way to increase iPhone sales. The only new sales would come from people replacing older iPhones, but there will be no more increase of that market.

And that should be okay. Aren't there many companies like that, that produce goods people use and depend on, that have steady sales year in and year out, but have stopped growing? Shouldn't those kinds of companies be the cornerstone of our economy, instead of chasing the few areas where there are growth?

It's true that AVP is a stepping stone, but iPhone sales have been flat for about 7 years. When you're growing your R&D spend 15% year over year the products you have an expectation that revenue from these products will grow similarly.

Apple R&D grew over the past three years at a third the rate it grew during the iPhone launch, so unit sales need to grow 20% year over year for the next eight years... or either the R&D gets cut or the project gets killed.

So you are saying VP needs to sell in big numbers right now, or else development for it will stop, and the product will be killed?

 

[Avatar74]

I don't understand what your work hours have to do with our conversation.

You began the conversation saying that you don't think Apple needs to knock this one clear out of the park, so to speak. My response is that I'm a "go big or go home" kind of guy on every project. I come from this kind of family... my brother's last three projects were managing the teams that brought to market the GPUs for the first and second Exascale supercomputers (Frontier and El Capitan) and his current project is developing the next gen GPUs that will power OpenAI. He spent 15 years at IBM, 15 at AMD, and just a year out of college he went to war and came back thrice decorated and was selected the US Army Soldier of the Year by the Joint Chiefs.

Compared to him, I'm the underachiever of the family... so you can see, I'm not going to comprehend shooting for less than an A+. It's just not who I am or what I do.

I've never understood the urge to pursue constant growth. It seems illogical to me to think that anything could grow forever. Like, if everyone on Earth buys an iPhone, that's it. There's no more way to increase iPhone sales. The only new sales would come from people replacing older iPhones, but there will be no more increase of that market.

First I think you're confusing product segment growth with corporate growth. My entire point is that iPhone is stagnating and eventually it will decline... something has to take its place.

Economies grow because populations grow. Inflation also grows. So just by virtue of these facts alone, companies have to grow just to stay in place. Now, some things stay the same: 100 years from now, chewing gum will still exist. But the semiconductor industry and its byproducts will look very, very different.

And that should be okay. Aren't there many companies like that, that produce goods people use and depend on, that have steady sales year in and year out, but have stopped growing? Shouldn't those kinds of companies be the cornerstone of our economy, instead of chasing the few areas where there are growth?

That is a much different conversation. I would suggest reading Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty. I'm not really a macroeconomics guy, but Piketty's basic point was that as long as real economic growth (g) exceeds the rate of return on capital (r) the general standard of living increases and we are ok. But when its the other way around, income inequality widens, wealth gets heavily concentrated at one end, and, eventually, heads roll...

But again, off-topic.

So you are saying VP needs to sell in big numbers right now, or else development for it will stop, and the product will be killed?

Yes to the first part. AVP needs to hit big numbers ASAP so as to maintain the overall corporate gross margin forecast targets. What I was saying with respect to the second part is more like this: Either R&D will be drastically reduced which means development will stagnate and only minor updates will happen ("keeping it on life support" with minimal spend) -or- the product will simply be killed off to reallocate resources to higher performing segments.

I was literally having this discussion with my counterpart in finance at my company, this morning... it's not just about corporate gross margin, but also product margin. Capital allocation (deciding what products, services to invest in and the necessary headcount for each) is something you drill into because while overall the company may look like it's doing fine, one product or service can start draining capital that could have been more wisely invested elsewhere.

 

[barkomatic]

I would have bought one if there had been gaming support and at least 3 or 4 big VR titles at launch, but I don't think Apple is ever going to take gaming seriously on any device except the iPhone.

I realize they are positioning this mostly as a productivity device, which I'd use it for as well. However, it's amazing they thought people are just gonna buy this as a fancy external monitor and to watch some really cool movies.

Meta now has an opening to improve the Quest to the point where it too can be used realistically for productivity--but have a much wider use case considering the entertainment and gaming apps it already supports.

 

[Jensend]

What use case can you think of that, a) can only work on an MR headset, and b) is indispensable to c) the largest audience possible?

I am looking for these things. You don't need to.

Nothing is indispensable until it already has had a large audience and has replaced the viability of the thing that came before. So you can replace "MR headset" in your question with anything, and there was no essential use case when it was new.

The internet wasn't essential for most people before the 21st century. There are things about the internet that are now only available on the internet because it has killed other sources of information, like a phonebook or a video rental store. Not that there aren't any non-internet alternatives to those examples, but they are a shadow of what they were before—there are still physical movie rental kiosks, but they have a very limited selection compared to what a Blockbuster had.

If there were a point in time where MR gets good enough that it killed the market for monitors and TV, it would become essential. If that happens, it will be at least a few decades away.

No individual computer form factor is essential, but having access to a computer of some sort is essential in the present age.

 

[Avatar74]

Nothing is indispensable until it already has had a large audience

Hold up... go back, re-read what I wrote. I think you're getting ahead of yourself because MR isn't the thing I asked about. What did I ask? Read it again.

 

[Jensend]

Hold up... go back, re-read what I wrote. I think you're getting ahead of yourself because MR isn't the thing I asked about. What did I ask? Read it again.

You literally asked about and used the term MR in the quote I posted. Stop being cryptic and tell what your point is.

 

[Quu]

Having been an Apple product enjoyer for nearly 30 years now this is one of a few products they've released that I've had zero interest in owning. For me, it's the wearing it on your head thing that detracts from it and I also feel that the quality isn't high enough yet for me to be willing to "live life" through the Apple Vision Pro.

Like the field of view needs to be completely encompassing, the digital passthrough of the real world must be perfect. For $3,500, I thought it would be a huge leap forward, but it just feels like a few steps forward and in other ways (tethered battery, weight, field of view) a few steps backwards.

Maybe in future generations when this is just a pair of spectacles like what Tony Stark had in Iron Man 2 .. sure okay, but this is very far away from that and it feels like we're going to be waiting a very long time before we get something like that, maybe longer than this product can withstand being iterated upon by Apple.

I'm not that concerned with the price but I was a little let's say surprised that it doesn't offer a higher fidelity experience for its price, there's a lot of caveats and compromises and it's hard to defend those issues at this price.

 

[Avatar74]

You literally asked about and used the term MR in the quote I posted. Stop being cryptic and tell what your point is.

I'm not at all being cryptic. I'm getting frustrated because I took the time to write out a series of words in a purposeful sequence, with correct syntax and grammar. All you have to do is read it in order, rather than whatever it was that lead you to read right past the answer.

If you can't be bothered to take the time to read my comments, not replying to me is an option.

 

[cardfan]

Having been an Apple product enjoyer for nearly 30 years now this is one of a few products they've released that I've had zero interest in owning. For me, it's the wearing it on your head thing that detracts from it and I also feel that the quality isn't high enough yet for me to be willing to "live life" through the Apple Vision Pro.

Like the field of view needs to be completely encompassing, the digital passthrough of the real world must be perfect. For $3,500, I thought it would be a huge leap forward, but it just feels like a few steps forward and in other ways (tethered battery, weight, field of view) a few steps backwards.

Maybe in future generations when this is just a pair of spectacles like what Tony Stark had in Iron Man 2 .. sure okay, but this is very far away from that and it feels like we're going to be waiting a very long time before we get something like that, maybe longer than this product can withstand being iterated upon by Apple.

I'm not that concerned with the price but I was a little let's say surprised that it doesn't offer a higher fidelity experience for its price, there's a lot of caveats and compromises and it's hard to defend those issues at this price.

Take a look at apples immersive stuff. That’s your ticket that would sell these. Only thing missing? Immersive stuff. And lots of it.

Let me see college basketball or football like this and take my 3500 or somehow lower as many think it’ll be later. I’ll make the headset work.

Why apple isn’t snatching up sports? I don’t know. Same thing with other things they do. They don’t see things through. Gaming software. Business software. Movie or tv IP. Don’t ask me why they don’t double down.

Perhaps they think to let others do the work and the MO is to take 15%. It’s smart if they let you. But content is losing money for streamers. For apple it’ll sell more headsets. It’s on Apple. You control the only way to freaking see it. It’s not like Apple would do a quest app.

Sports is something that needs to be done sooner than later. For apple it should be an urgency. One could even argue that no sport has immersive video contracts with anyone. Don’t ask me how this works. lol.

 

[Aggedor]

Honestly this is a long-a$$ thread that I'm not going to read most of, but one thing I've noticed is how fast the drop-off in AVP discussion has been.

Obviously the launch was a big deal, and then we had a couple of weeks of lively discussion - not to mention those dumb videos of people pretending to use them on the subway, while driving, etc - and now it's pretty much tumbleweeds.

I know the AVP forum here continues to be healthy, but the forum chat HAS decreased. Outside of Apple-specific spaces, AVP discussion has dropped to near zero on social media platforms.

Not a particularly good sign for the future of the AVP.

 

[tomtad]

Honestly this is a long-a$$ thread that I'm not going to read most of, but one thing I've noticed is how fast the drop-off in AVP discussion has been.

Obviously the launch was a big deal, and then we had a couple of weeks of lively discussion - not to mention those dumb videos of people pretending to use them on the subway, while driving, etc - and now it's pretty much tumbleweeds.

I know the AVP forum here continues to be healthy, but the forum chat HAS decreased. Outside of Apple-specific spaces, AVP discussion has dropped to near zero on social media platforms.

Not a particularly good sign for the future of the AVP.

It's gone the way I thought it would and that is largely indifference now things have settled down. At the end of the day it's another VR headset, and an incredibly expensive at that. They have there uses sure but once you've played with them they usually end up in your drawer.

 

[Bodhitree]

Honestly this is a long-a$$ thread that I'm not going to read most of, but one thing I've noticed is how fast the drop-off in AVP discussion has been.

Obviously the launch was a big deal, and then we had a couple of weeks of lively discussion - not to mention those dumb videos of people pretending to use them on the subway, while driving, etc - and now it's pretty much tumbleweeds.

Very true, and I think it’s telling that very few of the things discussed have been real bread-and-butter repeatable long-term uses. It’s been a bit, wow, immersive video’s, lovely, now what? Play a bit with spatial videos, watch a movie, arrange some windows.

 

[Avatar74]

largely indifference now things have settled down.

Very true, and I think it’s telling that very few of the things discussed have been real bread-and-butter repeatable long-term uses. It’s been a bit, wow, immersive video’s, lovely, now what? Play a bit with spatial videos, watch a movie, arrange some windows.

But this is how things tend to go with any product launch... When I first joined Macrumors ages ago (under a different account), it was a tight community. iPhone and the cycle of "Stevenotes" really started to explode the community beyond the niche Mac nerds, and so there's always a much larger audience that becomes more active around the major topics vs. the much smaller core audience, regardless of how that product ultimately performs in the marketplace.

Granted, also, the emergence of social media has further fragmented the audience in much the same way that the media landscape is more competitive... so the range of engagement between peaks and troughs is probably a lot wider than it was pre-iPhone.

That doesn't really give me, as a data analytics manager, a good barometer of how AVP will do. I've said in other contexts that the product needs to grow 22% year over year or it's going to have its R&D capped or get killed, eventually. But the variable that's missing is understanding what Apple's fixed costs were. That and the other data points would tell us how many years Apple might give AVP before killing it.

Everything else is anecdotal.

 

[Night Spring]

You began the conversation saying that you don't think Apple needs to knock this one clear out of the park, so to speak. My response is that I'm a "go big or go home" kind of guy on every project. I come from this kind of family... my brother's last three projects were managing the teams that brought to market the GPUs for the first and second Exascale supercomputers (Frontier and El Capitan) and his current project is developing the next gen GPUs that will power OpenAI. He spent 15 years at IBM, 15 at AMD, and just a year out of college he went to war and came back thrice decorated and was selected the US Army Soldier of the Year by the Joint Chiefs.

Compared to him, I'm the underachiever of the family... so you can see, I'm not going to comprehend shooting for less than an A+. It's just not who I am or what I do.



First I think you're confusing product segment growth with corporate growth. My entire point is that iPhone is stagnating and eventually it will decline... something has to take its place.

Economies grow because populations grow. Inflation also grows. So just by virtue of these facts alone, companies have to grow just to stay in place. Now, some things stay the same: 100 years from now, chewing gum will still exist. But the semiconductor industry and its byproducts will look very, very different.



That is a much different conversation. I would suggest reading Capital in the 21st Century by Thomas Piketty. I'm not really a macroeconomics guy, but Piketty's basic point was that as long as real economic growth (g) exceeds the rate of return on capital (r) the general standard of living increases and we are ok. But when its the other way around, income inequality widens, wealth gets heavily concentrated at one end, and, eventually, heads roll...

But again, off-topic.



Yes to the first part. AVP needs to hit big numbers ASAP so as to maintain the overall corporate gross margin forecast targets. What I was saying with respect to the second part is more like this: Either R&D will be drastically reduced which means development will stagnate and only minor updates will happen ("keeping it on life support" with minimal spend) -or- the product will simply be killed off to reallocate resources to higher performing segments.

I was literally having this discussion with my counterpart in finance at my company, this morning... it's not just about corporate gross margin, but also product margin. Capital allocation (deciding what products, services to invest in and the necessary headcount for each) is something you drill into because while overall the company may look like it's doing fine, one product or service can start draining capital that could have been more wisely invested elsewhere.

Thanks for the Piketty recommendation, he seems to cover topics I'm interested about, I'm looking forward to reading his books. And thanks for this discussion, you've given me a lot to think about.

That doesn't really give me, as a data analytics manager, a good barometer of how AVP will do. I've said in other contexts that the product needs to grow 22% year over year or it's going to have its R&D capped or get killed, eventually. But the variable that's missing is understanding what Apple's fixed costs were. That and the other data points would tell us how many years Apple might give AVP before killing it.

I'm pretty sure VP won't achieve that level of growth. Most of the people who bought it thinking they'll use it for movies will stop using it once the novelty wears off. The question is how many people using it for productivity keep using it in a few months. I think there's going to be a few, minority of a minority, group of people who absolutely love the VP and use it above all their other devices. But would that be enough for Apple to keep investing in it? Like you say, we don't know what Apple's fixed costs are, so it's hard to predict.

 

[Avatar74]

I think there's going to be a few, minority of a minority, group of people who absolutely love the VP and use it above all their other devices.

Yep.

But would that be enough for Apple to keep investing in it?

Nope.

 

[ke-iron]

Sorry to break it to you, but none of these devices are essential.

 

[HDFan]

AVP needs to hit big numbers ASAP so as to maintain the overall corporate gross margin forecast targets. What I was saying with respect to the second part is more like this: Either R&D will be drastically reduced which means development will stagnate and only minor updates will happen ("keeping it on life support" with minimal spend) -or- the product will simply be killed off to reallocate resources to higher performing segments.

Over the long term yes they need to make profit. Over the short term not necessarily. They spent 10 billion over a period of 10 years on the Apple Car with $0 in return. If they are committed to the VP then it can be a money loser for a decade or even longer. Likely time enough for the technology to get there to enable mass market appeal due to weight, cost, etc. reductions.

 

[Avatar74]

Over the long term yes they need to make profit. Over the short term not necessarily. They spent 10 billion over a period of 10 years on the Apple Car with $0 in return. If they are committed to the VP then it can be a money loser for a decade or even longer. Likely time enough for the technology to get there to enable mass market appeal due to weight, cost, etc. reductions.

The difference is they’re not in the R&D phase now. They’re in production. The clock on project margin starts now.

This is literally my job. It doesn’t matter whether they have the financial bandwidth. It matters whether management or the board see this as money that could be spent elsewhere for a better return right now.

The fact that they pulled the plug on iCar—something barely costing 1/400th of annual revenue—in the R&D phase, illustrates that materiality isn’t the sole driver of a kill or keep decision.

 

[OriginalAppleGuy]

I disagree with your view that a device needs to be indispensable to be widely adopted. Is vacuum cleaners the only way we can clean our house? Isn't bloom and pan enough? Most people nowadays use vacuum cleaners because it's massively more convenient, but are they indispensable? I'd argue no.

Been a while since I read this thread, wondering how it was going. Then I saw this gold. As one who recently bought a carpet machine, I'd say vacuum cleaners vital to our health. The dirty water I dumped from a carpet I thought was pretty clean.....YUK. No way a bloom (er, broom) and pan would keep my family healthy.

As one who's been around since before PC's were a thing, the VP is here to stay. Since I wasn't there in Apple's conversations, can't say what they thought was going to happen with this thing. Are sales where they expect them to be? Are returns really where people who just seem to hate on Apple want them to be? Are Apple fans defending the VP to the finger strain right that this is the next big thing? We'll see.

I've had the VP since the Wednesday after launch weekend. Shortly after, I've been using Beta's (currently on 1.1 B4). First time doing that as I didn't want to risk reliability of my other products. Every day of use, I can see where this thing is a change in how we need to be computing. The killer app - monitors.

We've been using one monitor since the beginning of computing. Two monitors, or really large ones, has become the norm. Why? We like to use many apps at once. Our processors can handle it. Microsoft had to develop a shortcut to switch windows with Alt-Tab. Apple had to develop multiple virtual desktops (I use 3-4 on my MacBook Pro) so it would be easier to work with multiple apps at once.

The VP - WOW - the world is your monitor! I can have many different apps, including different instances of apps, open where I just need to move my head to see them. There are right there! It's so easy to move them around too! And if I want to get up to work, don't need a big stand up desk, I just stand up (keyboard is a compromise). If i want to go outside, no problem. Go - hit the crown, and all my apps appear. Wherever I go, I don't have to lug a heavy laptop. You can also interact with the apps like they are on an iDevice - touchscreen.

The tech will catch up to make this more mainstream. This "VR" device is different than the rest that seem to be best/geared toward, gaming. There are many days I don't use my Xbox. There are few days - like none, that I don't use my VP. I prefer it over my iPad, MacBook Pro, and iPhone.

I'll say this about the displays/graphics. Apple did more for this experience than people realize. When a website has a "view in AR" icon, you can place objects around you. If you have a VP - go to the Apple web page. You can do this with each product and make a virtual Apple store on your kitchen table, or wherever you want. Pull up the VP. As you move it around, notice how objects reflect off the dark glass. In my case, there's a window. The window isn't in my field of view as I'm looking away from it. BUT it is reflected in the AR of the VP. THAT is attention to detail and awesome processing, that makes Apple great.

Avatar74 has some really good points and I've enjoyed reading some of what he's written. There are economical considerations and he's pointed many of them out. What's the long term impact of the VP? Will it live up to what I'm experiencing? Honestly - the price isn't that high. People spend a lot more for other things. I like to go back to when my family bought an Apple ][ for comparison. With the hardware and software we bought, it was around $5K in 1980. In today's $$$, that's over $18K. We were not what I'd consider wealthy by any means. But that's a lot of money. By contrast $3,500 today, would have been $935.10 in 1980. So put that in to perspective.

 

[sunny5]

Have you ever TRIED Spatial computing in a Quest 3 or even a Quest Pro for that matter?
I have.
I own both. For the same reasons. I wanted to work within the AR VR space.
The Meta Line kind of sucks at this. Immersed (Not Meta but runs on it) is a great program, and TECHNICALLY
does everything it needs to do to make AR computing a Reality. But it just falls apart in implementation.
Very awkward interfaces and screens you just cant use because of resolution issues.
Put MANY hours in to trying to make both work. For what I do (Graphic design) it just doesn't.
The Apple Vision Pro DOES. It's the promise delivered.
The screen I use in the Vision pro is the best screen I have ever used for my work. The clarity and
versatility is unmatched and the user interface is a breeze.
Combined with my MacBook Pro-Bluetooth Keyboard and Magic Trackpad I was able to create a better workspace than I have in real life.
Is it as comfortable? Not yet.
Could I use another computer driven screen?
Yes, but A. There are workarounds and B. Some things are already in the works.

And before the contrarians jump on board I KNOW about the color accuracy issue. But for what I do the colors are good enough, and mostly Pantone or HEX determined so I know what I'm getting regardless if it looks a little different on screen.

It IS something special. You would know it if you tried it, and were being honest.
Yes. It has kinks.
Yes. I am a "special" use case.
But the takeaway is this.
For me the "future" has arrived and I'm glad to welcome it.
At V1 we are already there and it's only going to get better.

And yeah, I am an outlier but I can't be the only one.
This is a completely different product and a completely different experience.
And this is from a guy who basically abandoned the Apple/Mac program (outside of work) about 10 years ago when
they could not produce a VR capable computer and have invested FAR too much in VR headsets (12...13?)
to be fooled by another imposter.
This is the REAL deal.

And as I mentioned in another thread Meta and Apple are now probably on a race to the middle.
Meta HAS to get their "Stuff" together as far as productivity is concerned.
Apple HAS to get their "Stuff" together as far as gaming is concerned.
They have entertainment pretty much covered as the movie experience in this thing has pretty much convinced
my agoraphobic self to possibly never enter a Movie Theatre again. LOL

"some people just want to watch the world burn" - some guy named Alfred in some movie.

No it's not special. I already tried both AVP and Meta Quest 3. Tell me, what does it do better than normal computer? I mean WHY do I have to turn my head 180 or even 360 degree for?

 

[OriginalAppleGuy]

No it's not special. I already tried both AVP and Meta Quest 3. Tell me, what does it do better than normal computer? I mean WHY do I have to turn my head 180 or even 360 degree for?

Can you stand up in the middle of your room, place apps around you - however you like. All around you? In a circle? Can you then touch to interact. Walk up to them? Bring them to you? None of that can you do with a "normal" computer. Simple answer, no.

With the VP you don't have to turn your head 180/360 degrees. You can place everything in front of you however you like. High, low, left, right.

On a "normal" computer, you may have one monitor. Or, you may have two, three, or even a larger one. When you have multiple monitors or a really big one, you have to move your head around. And the apps aren't that big. Not as big as what you can do with the VP. It's really, one of the coolest things you can do. Sure, movies, videos, 3D are all very cool. But that's the killer app.

 

[sunny5]

Can you stand up in the middle of your room, place apps around you - however you like. All around you? In a circle? Can you then touch to interact. Walk up to them? Bring them to you? None of that can you do with a "normal" computer. Simple answer, no.

With the VP you don't have to turn your head 180/360 degrees. You can place everything in front of you however you like. High, low, left, right.

On a "normal" computer, you may have one monitor. Or, you may have two, three, or even a larger one. When you have multiple monitors or a really big one, you have to move your head around. And the apps aren't that big. Not as big as what you can do with the VP. It's really, one of the coolest things you can do. Sure, movies, videos, 3D are all very cool. But that's the killer app.

And? How does it even differ and benefit? None.

 

[MazingerZND]

So what most of us predicted has happened...around a month later, most of the world doesn't care about the VP.
And they pretended it was revolutionary...

 

[OriginalAppleGuy]

So what most of us predicted has happened...around a month later, most of the world doesn't care about the VP.
And they pretended it was revolutionary...

Yeah guess that is why Apple is stepping up production.

Some people just live in la la land.

 

[MazingerZND]

Yeah guess that is why Apple is stepping up production.

Some people just live in la la land.

You definitely do, I agree.
Some of us remember what having an actually successful launch was like. It hasn't happened in a while.