The 3x actually catches less light so the 2x mode could be a bit better in low light situations.
if we based just purely compare between the 2x mode where it uses a quarter of 9.8x7.3mm main 48mp sensor.
you get only about 2.45x1.825mm of actual sensor surface being utilized.
while the telephoto (15 pro) sensor, even if its only 12MP ... have a larger sensor size at 4x3mm
and low light conditions require the sensor size to be larger in order to take in more light.
apple can't just bend the laws of physics as much as they want to.
megapixel count isn't just the metric to determine output quality, is the sensor size which matters more.
case on point, sony full frame a7 lineup have three distinct models (all with same sensor size)
- a7r (high megapixel count)
- a7 (basic) / a7c
- a7s (low megapixel count)
the a7s series are usually catered for low light situations which high ISO with low noise output is desired, despite their low megapixel count.
so the same argument can be too applied, doesn't mean if the megapixel count is lower immediately translates to lower image quality.
as long as the sensor is big, generally it will result in higher quality image (before apple's AI-post-processing mumbo-jumbo)
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the iphone 15 generation is the first time where it is possible to prove whether there is a degradation of quality between similar "zoom" levels, which i'm confident that there will be.
one can shoot at 3x using the telephone sensor of iphone 15 pro, and compare it to 15 pro max cropped 3x using the main 48mp sensor.
i'm currently looking forward to dpreview writing detailed comparison between these two phones.