Your advice - MBA 15" M2 now or wait for M3?

[OldCorpse]

I hear you about the 27" iMac - I was rocking a late 2009 one up until last year when it finally gave up the ghost. It was a great computer. I was ready to buy a new one and wanted an Apple Silicon one, but didn't want the 24", kept hoping they'd come out with one. I guess recently it's been confirmed that it will never happen. I'm sad. I guess I'm coming around to the idea of Apple Display + Studio, but that's a very costly proposition compared to the great value that the 27" was. The 24" just doesn't work for me, sorry, tried to love it in the Apple Store, but just couldn't. So I'm kinda stuck when it comes to a desktop until I can convince myself to do a display + studio combo.

Until then, I need something I can work with my old eyes. I don't have any heavy duty computer needs, so I think the 15" MBA hits all the points, and is pretty affordable all things considered - especially for what you get, great value, compared to anything you could get even a few years ago, IMHO.

I tend to keep computers for a long time - except when they're faulty like the disastrous experience I had with the 13" MBP M1, which I traded in to Apple. So I don't particularly care to wait 6 months for the M3 in the 15", as by the time I'm ready to buy another it'll probably be like M8 or something, lol! Finally, the difference between the M2 and M3 by all accounts is pretty mediocre, so it's definitely not worth waiting 6 months for, but to each his/her own.

Bottom line, I am ready to buy anything that's out right now, rather than wait - if it was a matter of a couple of months, OK, but I don't believe we'll see the 15" M3 so soon, so I'm buying the current 15" M2 sometime in the next 2-3 weeks.

It was great to talk it all out with you guys, it really clarified my thoughts and now I feel comfrotable with my choice with no FOMO feels. Even the price is not as big a deal if you think it's going to be spread over 5+ years, that $200-$300 is not the end of the world, though of course, I won't turn down a good deal, lol!

 

[Saturn007]

I just picked up a M2 15 Air in Midnight. Got it new from Best Buy for $1600 with a 1TBHD and 16gb ram

I've seen $1650. Are you a BB Plus member or whatever it's called and, so, got $50 more off?

How do you like the Midnight? I've been tempted by that very BB deal on the 16/1.

What about the widely reported downsides of Midnight — fingerprint, scratches around the ports, dust, etc.?

Thank you again, guys! At this point I'm thinking about buying a 16/512 one pretty much at any time, maybe even before Black Friday.

Last year, Apple offered a $250 gift card for various Macs for Black Friday. [Update: A later check indicated it was only $150.]

So, there is that possibility, if it comes to pass! [It didn’t, but the announced $200 gift card is not bad on the Air and Mini.]

But waiting is a gamble. I have the feeling (convincing myself perhaps) that there will still be lots of 3rd party sellers with discounts then, too, if Apple's BF doesn’t apply to the 15” MBA.

[There are. Look at Best Buy and Costco.]

By the way, I have been quite interested in the Starlight color, too. It was to be a change of pace from my Silver and Space Grey. However, I realized three things.

1. Starlight looks like Silver under many lighting conditions and that's confirmed in person and in many photographs.

2. Some pointed out that the display frame has a line of starlight around it rather than the black or grey of Midnight and Space Grey. Sure enough, you can see that in the photos.

3. I'm going to be trading in my Space Grey, so I'd have a 2015 13” Silver and 15” Starlight that would look similar. I'm now heavily in the Space Grey camp!

Anyone spotting deals on Starlight 16/512 or Space Grey 16/1, please post here!

 

[OldCorpse]

Color is of course a personal preference, but I find silver a bit harsh, especially over such a large surface as 15", more noticeable in bright light. Space gray is not bad, but slightly dull compared to starlight, although admittedly that's mostly the case when you put it right next to the starlight one in a store, and not so much on its own. Midnight though seems to me sad/depressing, unlovable. Whew, we're really getting into the weeds of first world problems here, lol!

Seriously it's all subjective, but I figure if you have the choice, why not pick even if it's not life and death; besides, it's something you'll be around potentially for hours daily for years, may as well not be stuck with an irritant if you can help it. Then again, sometimes you get used to things and don't even notice them anymore. Meanwhile the poor MBP folks can pick only between silver and space gray, unless they gush a bunch of cash for the black.

But yeah, if anyone spots any deals for starlight 16/512 or 16/1, holler!

 

[dizmonk]

I've seen $1650. Are you a BB Plus member or whatever it's called and, so, got $50 more off?

How do you like the Midnight? I've been tempted by that very BB deal on the 16/1.

What about the widely reported downsides of Midnight — fingerprint, scratches around the ports, dust, etc.?



Last year, Apple offered a $250 gift card for various Macs for Black Friday. So, there is that possibility, if it comes to pass! But waiting is a gamble. I have the feeling (convincing myself perhaps) that there will still be lots of 3rd party sellers with discounts then, too, if Apple's BF doesn’t apply to the 15” MBA.

By the way, I have been quite interested in the Starlight color, too. It was to be a change of pace from my Silver and Space Grey. However, I realized three things.

1. Starlight looks like Silver under many lighting conditions and that's confirmed in person and in many photographs.

2. Some pointed out that the display frame has a line of starlight around it rather than the black or grey of Midnight and Space Grey. Sure enough, you can see that in the photos.

3. I'm going to be trading in my Space Grey, so I'd have a 2015 13” Silver and 15” Starlight that would look similar. I'm now heavily in the Space Grey camp!

Anyone spotting deals on Starlight 16/512 or Space Grey 16/1, please post here!

I have a Starlight MBA. I don't think it ever looks like Silver.

 

[MapleBeercules]

I highly doubt you will see M3 come to Air. Apple is already struggling with chip production and its not worth the costs to retool the chip for N3E when you can just make M4. Unless you plan to game on your new mac, M3 vs M2 vs M1, you wont notice a difference.

 

[Jamacfer]

I agree that the difference in performance between M2 and M3 will not be terrific, but it is also true that by next Summer at the latest, the Airs will obviously be equipped with M3.

 

[HuskyRob]

I agree that the difference in performance between M2 and M3 will not be terrific, but it is also true that by next Summer at the latest, the Airs will obviously be equipped with M3.

When everyone is talking about when the M4 will drop 😆.

The next best thing will always be around the corner. If you are considering the Air over the Pro because you don't need the extra juice then I doubt you will be disappointed with the M2.

 

[Jamacfer]

When everyone is talking about when the M4 will drop 😆.

The next best thing will always be around the corner. If you are considering the Air over the Pro because you don't need the extra juice then I doubt you will be disappointed with the M2.

Sure, the usual (correct) advice. But in my case, since I am not in a hurry, I prefer not to buy a model that is 490 days old and wait a few (several) months for the new Air 13” M3. Technology gets old fast, and if possible, I prefer to buy it as soon as it comes out. Furthermore, as it concerns the Pro, you don't necessarily want to buy it just because you "need" it but maybe just because you “prefer” it, don't you think?

 

[jdb8167]

I highly doubt you will see M3 come to Air. Apple is already struggling with chip production and its not worth the costs to retool the chip for N3E when you can just make M4. Unless you plan to game on your new mac, M3 vs M2 vs M1, you wont notice a difference.

When everyone is talking about when the M4 will drop 😆.

The next best thing will always be around the corner. If you are considering the Air over the Pro because you don't need the extra juice then I doubt you will be disappointed with the M2.

The M4 is unlikely to appear before the end of 2024 or early 2025. That's a long time in for computer technology. Apple waiting for the M4 for the next update of their best-selling computer would be a little nuts. The most likely reason Apple didn't update the MacBook Air yet is that they can't make enough M3s yet. That will sort itself out over the next couple of months as TSMC N3 yields keep increasing.

 

[MapleBeercules]

The M4 is unlikely to appear before the end of 2024 or early 2025. That's a long time in for computer technology. Apple waiting for the M4 for the next update of their best-selling computer would be a little nuts. The most likely reason Apple didn't update the MacBook Air yet is that they can't make enough M3s yet. That will sort itself out over the next couple of months as TSMC N3 yields keep increasing.

Its because I can read and understand how production of CPU work, M3 was 6 months behind because TSMC N3B was pure crap, infact apple bought the entire N3B product line meaning no one else is getting 3nm this production window other than apple, if sales are down 34% where do you think these are going? Its because yields are down, and failure rates are up hence the massive binning options for both pro and max m3.

Since N3B was a bust, TSMC will move to N3E, which requires a new design for the processor, so apple is going to waste money making the M3 on N3E without any improvement gains? not going to happen its a complete waste of time and money. Apple will proceed with m4 on N3E 100%.

M4 will be out by Spring of 2024 in ipad pro and studio, just you watch.. Wont be a m3 ultra either. it will be a m4 ultra instead.

 

[jdb8167]

Its because I can read and understand how production of CPU work, M3 was 6 months behind because TSMC N3B was pure crap, infact apple bought the entire N3B product line meaning no one else is getting 3nm this production window other than apple, if sales are down 34% where do you think these are going? Its because yields are down, and failure rates are up hence the massive binning options for both pro and max m3.

Since N3B was a bust, TSMC will move to N3E, which requires a new design for the processor, so apple is going to waste money making the M3 on N3E without any improvement gains? not going to happen its a complete waste of time and money. Apple will proceed with m4 on N3E 100%.

M4 will be out by Spring of 2024 in ipad pro and studio, just you watch.. Wont be a m3 ultra either. it will be a m4 ultra instead.

Hmm. While I don't know if Apple will continue following the same pattern forever, so far every M generation has followed a new A generation. A new A generation won't happen until next September. So I find it unlikely that the M4 will be out before near the end of next year. And since Apple will be competing for TSMC N3E space, it is possible that they will again have supply problems but this time because of competing products instead of early yield problems. It is likely that the N3B yield problems are mostly solved already but it takes months to produce new wafers. So if the fixes came recently, we won't see the results for another few months.

There is some speculation that Apple reduced the performance of the M3 Pro to increase its efficiency which is needed for a new product; perhaps a 14" iPad Pro. Pure speculation but it fits the pattern.

 

[MapleBeercules]

Hmm. While I don't know if Apple will continue following the same pattern forever, so far every M generation has followed a new A generation. A new A generation won't happen until next September. So I find it unlikely that the M4 will be out before near the end of next year. And since Apple will be competing for TSMC N3E space, it is possible that they will again have supply problems but this time because of competing products instead of early yield problems. It is likely that the N3B yield problems are mostly solved already but it takes months to produce new wafers. So if the fixes came recently, we won't see the results for another few months.

There is some speculation that Apple reduced the performance of the M3 Pro to increase its efficiency which is needed for a new product, perhaps a 14" iPad Pro. Pure speculation but it fits the pattern.

They release a new A series every 9 months or so, why wouldnt they do that with M series but stager the product release like they are doing. Why didnt the imac get the m2, even the 13 inch got the m2... its clear what apple is doing.

But you still dont understand that this is driven by production not by marketing, if TSMC cant produce the CPU how can apple sell it.. Silly people who think processors are delivery by flying birds from magical lands

 

[jdb8167]

They release a new A series every 9 months or so, why wouldnt they do that with M series but stager the product release like they are doing. Why didnt the imac get the m2, even the 13 inch got the m2... its clear what apple is doing.

But you still dont understand that this is driven by production not by marketing, if TSMC cant produce the CPU how can apple sell it.. Silly people who think processors are delivery by flying birds from magical lands

Apparently TSMC can produce enough N3 chips to supply 10s of millions of iPhone Pros and millions of Macs so I don't know why you think the M3/A17 on TSMC N3B is a bust. Apple already has a working M3 to put in the MacBook Air and yields inevitably improve over time so the early supply problems will fade over time. Having a working 3nm node first is a tremendous feather in their cap for Apple. They are much more likely to push it as far as they can rather than abandoning it early before TSMC N3E is even ready.

 

[MapleBeercules]

Apparently TSMC can produce enough N3 chips to supply 10s of millions of iPhone Pros and millions of Macs so I don't know why you think the M3/A17 on TSMC N3B is a bust. Apple already has a working M3 to put in the MacBook Air and yields inevitably improve over time so the early supply problems will fade over time. Having a working 3nm node is a tremendous feather in their cap for Apple. They are much more likely to push it as far as they can rather than abandoning it early before TSMC N3E is even ready.

Again, if you just open up a web browser and google, you will see TSMC just present to its boards N3E process. 3nm has nothing to do with apple, 3nm is TSMC production, apple is just utilizing their technology. N3B is a bust because of its poor yields and terrible results. Thats why M3 was delay by 6 months, apple had M3 Macbook pro in stock already back in July, we know this because the new laptops had previous OS on them at launch in Oct, because they couldnt produce enough quality chips to meet apples demand.

Apple isnt going to continue to use a process that has bad yields and poor results period. WHy would they spend 1 billion to produce 250 million CPU when they can spend 1 billion and get 400 million CPUs. you clearly do not understand CPU production and i suggest you look it up.

 

[jdb8167]

Again, if you just open up a web browser and google, you will see TSMC just present to its boards N3E process. 3nm has nothing to do with apple, 3nm is TSMC production, apple is just utilizing their technology. N3B is a bust because of its poor yields and terrible results. Thats why M3 was delay by 6 months, apple had M3 Macbook pro in stock already back in July, we know this because the new laptops had previous OS on them at launch in Oct, because they couldnt produce enough quality chips to meet apples demand.

Apple isnt going to continue to use a process that has bad yields and poor results period. WHy would they spend 1 billion to produce 250 million CPU when they can spend 1 billion and get 400 million CPUs. you clearly do not understand CPU production and i suggest you look it up.

Apple worked very closely with TSMC to produce the first 3nm SoCs. Apple and TSMC are very much partners. There is no evidence that N3B is a bust. Reports were that yields for the first N3B wafers are better than N5 at the same period of development. Apple is certainly not going to design more SoCs on N3B but there is no reason not to continue using the designs that reportedly cost them over $1B to produce. N3E promises to be cheaper than N3B but Apple probably isn't particularly concerned about that. Having 3nm now is a big benefit to Apple since none of their competitors will get any 3nm chips until late next year.

 

[ngel22]

They release a new A series every 9 months or so, why wouldnt they do that with M series but stager the product release like they are doing. Why didnt the imac get the m2, even the 13 inch got the m2... its clear what apple is doing.

But you still dont understand that this is driven by production not by marketing, if TSMC cant produce the CPU how can apple sell it.. Silly people who think processors are delivery by flying birds from magical lands

@MapleBeercules You can't compare the iMac with a Macbook Air, the Air is Apple's best selling computer. Surely, in order to increase sales targets and revenue, they have to release the M3 for the Air, they can't afford to wait another two years for the M4 and skip it. Many are now intentionally not buying the M2 as the M2 is an already 15 months old chip, so they are waiting for the M3, and Apple knows it. Unless I really need one, I wouldn't buy it either, why should I pay the same price for a M2 if the M3 is only months away. Apart from that, as some users said before, the M3 Air is already in testing stage.

Anyway, I'm almost sure that you are a paid agent by Apple or any connected organization, trying to spread misinformation to lead people to believe you and make them buy the M2 in order to clear the stock Apple wants to get rid off as much as possible.

 

[Saturn007]

I'm almost sure that you are a paid agent by Apple or any connected organization, trying to spread misinformation

Cue Mission Impossible music…

In any case, one reason for buying now is that there are discounts, the timing of the M3 MBA is unknown and uncertain, and, from all we've learned so far, M3 will likely provide only marginal improvements. (Re-read the thread and others at MR.)

 

[Jamacfer]

Cue Mission Impossible music…

In any case, one reason for buying now is that there are discounts, the timing of the M3 MBA is unknown and uncertain, and, from all we've learned so far, M3 will likely provide only marginal improvements. (Re-read the thread and others at MR.)

Definitely, but the MBA M3 should reasonably be released between next Spring and Summer.

 

[bigjnyc]

I honestly don't think you'll be getting anything on your wish list. Given the recent MBP upgrades I would think they are just going to update the chip itself in the MBA and keep everything else pretty much the same. The entry level MBP M3 is 8gb starting so they aren't going to make the "value priced" MBA line start higher. I say buy now unless you feel like the M3 chip upgrade alone is worth it to you.

 

[Jamacfer]

I honestly don't think you'll be getting anything on your wish list. Given the recent MBP upgrades I would think they are just going to update the chip itself in the MBA and keep everything else pretty much the same. The entry level MBP M3 is 8gb starting so they aren't going to make the "value priced" MBA line start higher. I say buy now unless you feel like the M3 chip upgrade alone is worth it to you.

I know there are 2 ways of thinking, but I would instead wait (obviously if not needed today or if there are big discounts on the current model) because, in my opinion, better not to buy a computer that is already 493 days old (13"). Maybe Apple will try to make the new model more attractive besides the new chip (otherwise no one would buy it).

 

[OldCorpse]

I know there are 2 ways of thinking, but I would instead wait (obviously if not needed today or if there are big discounts on the current model) because, in my opinion, better not to buy a computer that is already 493 days old (13"). Maybe Apple will try to make the new model more attractive besides the new chip (otherwise no one would buy it).

Yes, I intend to buy the M2 15", it's only a question of when - if I can get a deal, say around Thanksgiving. I believe the only difference in the next update will be a change from M2 to M3 and the difference between these two chipsets is to small (to me) to wait too long for it. And I don't believe the M3 will appear in the 15" or even the 13" too soon. If they were to update it in Feb-March-April, then they would've been better off doing it before the 2023 Holiday season as they'd have scored more sales. Also, looking at the Buyer's Guide, Apple is historically willing to wait with an update not just 493 days (as is the case with the current MBA 13"), but 600+ (see: 2020) and even 800+ days. So I would not be surprised if they wait until June 2024 or so to update both MBA sizes to the M3. That's way, way too long to wait (for me).

 

[geta]

@OldCorpse , the correct M2 15” MBA is great device, and if you need new computer now, get whatever available that suits your need.

As for the next M3 MBA, I doubt any of your desired features will be part of it, and thats based on the new base M3 14” MBP release.

 

[thadoggfather]

@OldCorpse , the correct M2 15” MBA is great device, and if you need new computer now, get whatever available that suits your need.

As for the next M3 MBA, I doubt any of your desired features will be part of it, and thats based on the new base M3 14” MBP release.

if anything with M3 15" MBA, they might reduce storage to 128gb and ram to 4gb from base 8/256 and drop it a few hundred to pad their sales numbers as we just saw with base 14" MBP M3

( /s )

 

[James Godfrey]

The one concern I have with the M3 Air, is by all accounts the M3 runs hotter than M2, therefore in a fan-less design the performance will be marginally better in the M3 Air but will thermal throttle faster than M2 reducing long term performance of certain tasks.

Either that or the M3 will be down clocked meaning it will perform pretty much the same as M2, the only thing your are essentially holding out for at this point is a possible additional MacOS update towards the end of its lifespan.

 

[jdb8167]

The one concern I have with the M3 Air, is by all accounts the M3 runs hotter than M2, therefore in a fan-less design the performance will be marginally better in the M3 Air but will thermal throttle faster than M2 reducing long term performance of certain tasks.

Either that or the M3 will be down clocked meaning it will perform pretty much the same as M2, the only thing your are essentially holding out for at this point is a possible additional MacOS update towards the end of its lifespan.

That seems unlikely given that Apple would design the M3 for fanless operation and would plan accordingly. The N3B node gives lower power for the better performance, not the other way around. Apple can choose between 25-30% lower power and 10-15% better performance with their design. The M3 MacBook Pro gets about 3150 SC and 11800 MC on Geekbench 6. The M2 MacBook Pro gets around 2650 SC and 10100 MC. So about 18% performance improvement on SC and 16% MC. So Apple was apparently mostly happy with battery life and used most of the N3B advantage for performance.