Apple Vision Pro Launches: 'The Era of Spatial Computing Has Arrived'

[Bauer24]

lol - this thread is comical.

Surf Monkey's ancestors also said we'd never be able to build boats, I mean "how can something heavy float on water? Preposterous!"

His/her great-great-grandfather also told the Wright brothers to pack up and give up too. I mean, "how can something heavier than air actually fly? Outrageous!".

His grandfather also told the engineers building the ENIAC - "why even bother! you'll never be able to miniaturize this computer to less than the size of a room!".

And now from a long line of naysayers, he continues the tradition of claiming that the electronics will never be miniaturized in order to put them in a glasses form factor.

Absolute gems in this thread.

 

[neuropsychguy]

Is it priced too high? YES, it is priced too high FOR WHAT IT IS. It simply doesn’t represent nearly 4k USD worth of value.

It's priced too high for what you think it is and what value you think you can derive from it. Other people might find they get well over $4000 worth of value from it. Value is subjective.

There are people who don't work for Apple who are going to make a lot of money from it. Maybe they'll develop an app that sells for $10 to $100,000. That's $1,000,000, less fees to Apple. Let's just say that after other expenses, it's $500,000. That's not a bad return on a $3,500 product. Technically, you don't even need to own one to do that, although it's a good idea to have one to test.

Again, value is subjective. Some people will buy it and almost never use it. Others will buy it and use it a lot. Others will buy it and then turn around and sell it after a while. Other people will buy it and use it to make money or memories or whatever. People can figure out things to do with it.

I'm interested in it for educational reasons. It would be extremely useful for one of my university courses to help students learn the material.

 

[victorvictoria]

The presumption that technological advancement is a constant upward spiral ignores the bulk of human history and the basic limitations of the physical universe. Some things are not possible and will never be possible. The Vision system will never fit in a pair of standard glasses frames. Not now, not 10 years from now and not 20 years from now. Glasses frames simply aren’t large enough to contain all the required components without so many compromises that it isn’t “Vision” anymore.

The presumption that technology will never advance to that point is ludicrous, especially given the history of technology, especially computing technology. I attended the 1964 New York World's Fair. AT&T demonstrated a state-of-the-art computer that could beat or tie you at Tic-Tac-Toe. It had 10,000 vacuum tubes, had no storage, was three stories tall, used as much electricity as a small town and required a team of techs to change the constantly failing tubes.

Now you want to tell me that miniaturizing the tech in the VisionPro to the size of eyeglasses is impossible. To put it bluntly, you're wrong. I may not live to see it, but it's inevitable.

 

[Allen_Wentz]

The interpretation of niche as being derogatory is yours alone. It simply means not reaching mass adoption by the public at large.

Actually, niche has multiple meanings that it makes no sense to quibble about. Your words "...this will never move past being a niche device until it becomes cheaper" sounded to me like they were being derogatory to AVP success. My apologies if that was not what you intended them to mean.

My opinion is that AVP success should not be somehow defined in terms of how well it "reaches mass adoption by the public at large." AVP is a brand-new product category on the bleeding edge of technology for Apple. IMO $700M sales in two weeks already far exceeds whatever might be needed to describe such a product as successful initial sales. How well the tech works is what is more important, and that remains to be seen - - but Apple has a very good track record with doing how well the tech works.

 

[victorvictoria]

That's coming. The naysayers who have little insight into technology will reflexively say NO as they're armchair "technologists" rather than engineers, never having created/developed anything tech-related and keeping their imagination safely stored away in a drawer. They're the same people who proclaimed iPod/iPhone/iPad/Watch/AirPods/etc as flops on introduction day.

This reminds me of when Martin Cooper, an employee at Motorola, developed the first cellphone (and a system to support it). As a gifted/superb engineer and aware of the potential, he knew what the future would bring to the masses. Of course the naysayers laughed back then.

View attachment 2344393

I could populate a city the size of Chicago with "geniuses" who got things wrong over the last 25 years alone.

 

[turbineseaplane]

OK, you can use the term niche device as derogatory to denigrate AVP. But do the easy math: every tech firm on the planet would be thrilled to sell 200k x $3.5k+ = >$700 million in ~two weeks.

I wonder if every tech firm would be thrilled with the return rate in the following two weeks?

 

[victorvictoria]

But you're all about longer term horizons, right? The short term means nothing.

It means something. Just not what you imply. What it means is that the market believes the VisionPro is not the magic bullet to solve Apple's $3 trillion market saturation. That is the short term meaning. What remains to be seen is how this expensive toy evolves to become a consumer product. Apple has priced it for the enterprise sector, where the company has repeatedly failed to gain traction, and is relegated to a back seat to Microsoft, IBM and others. Newton didn't do it. VisionPro won't either. Apple is a consumer company, and should realize that, focus on it like a laser beam, and leverage it for maximum profitably.

 

[webkit]

Most old computers were notoriously expensive. Put the Mac price in context. The competing Compaq Portable was $3k back then or about $9k today. Computers were an expensive area. VR headsets are not, or do not have to be, as evidenced by the Quest 3 or PSVR2.

The point was that home computers were a niche product back then but prices came down, new models/versions were introduced, new features were added, technologies advanced, usage increased, etc. and they eventually became more and more common in the home. Similar can happen with the mixed-reality headset market and the Apple Vision product line's place in it. The $7,500 (today's dollars) Macintosh starting price wasn't going to be the long-term pricing norm just as the $3,499 VP starting price isn't going to be the long-term pricing norm.

 

[victorvictoria]

I think it matters. Same as going out to vote. Never believe your voice isn't important!

“If you think you are too small to make a difference, try sleeping with a mosquito!” (His Holiness, the 14th Dalai Lama)

 

[Kleber20]

I would put the logo on the centre

 

[victorvictoria]

Go ahead, short AAPL. See what that does for you.

P.S. Ever hear of "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news...?"

Apple stock currently makes up roughly 11% of my entire portfolio. It would be counterproductive to short, don't you think? I don't trade stocks. Like Buffett and Munger, I buy great companies with a history of growing earnings and increasing dividends, and hold them forever. Apple survived Newton, Lisa, Macintosh TV, Pippin, the eMate, the iPod HiFi, eWorld, the Apple III and more. It will survive, discontinue or improve VisionPro. That's why I'm not selling, shorting or worrying about this downturn. I'm just taking note of it.

 

[victorvictoria]

Go ahead, short AAPL. See what that does for you.

P.S. Ever hear of "Buy on the rumor, sell on the news...?"

Apple stock currently makes up roughly 11% of my entire portfolio. It would be counterproductive to short, don't you think? I don't trade stocks. Like Buffett and Munger, I buy great companies with a history of growing earnings and increasing dividends, and hold them forever. Apple survived Newton, Lisa, Macintosh TV, Pippin, the eMate, the iPod HiFi, eWorld, the Apple III and more. It will survive, discontinue or improve VisionPro. That's why I'm not selling, shorting or worrying about this downturn. I'm just taking note of it.

Newton may be a particularly good analogy. Newton was great for Apple. Things learned with Newton helped bring all the world-changing mobile Apple devices that followed.

That's a great point! As an owner of 1,614 shares of Apple, I hope you're right as it applies to VisionPro!

 

[lpfnrobin]

any significance that this 1st day of consumer availability is Groundhogs Day?

I hope it works out for the big apple - its a tough product to grapple with...

 

[Allen_Wentz]

I wonder if every tech firm would be thrilled with the return rate in the following two weeks?

Apple's superb liberal return policy may indeed cause them some headaches with some sleazy folks ordering AVP just as a free trial, with no intent of keeping the AVP. Those returns and the headaches around them are no doubt factored into the process by Apple; they are not some kind of sales failure.
A) Apple gets all those folks trying out AVP, broadening product exposure.
B) Apple then promptly has refurbs to sell at reduced price w/o early discounting.

IMO Win-Win

 

[Bauer24]

Apple's superb liberal return policy may indeed cause them some headaches with some sleazy folks ordering AVP just as a free trial, with no intent of keeping the AVP. Those returns and the headaches around them are no doubt factored into the process by Apple; they are not some kind of sales failure.
A) Apple gets all those folks trying out AVP, broadening product exposure.
B) Apple then promptly has refurbs to sell at reduced price w/o early discounting.

IMO Win-Win

Agree with your general point, however I don't think Apple will immediately sell the returned devices on the refurb store. It makes more sense in terms of optics to hold those back for a few months before putting them on the refurb store, and in the mean time continue to sell new devices.

 

[vipergts2207]

The point was that home computers were a niche product back then but prices came down, new models/versions were introduced, new features were added, technologies advanced, usage increased, etc. and they eventually became more and more common in the home. Similar can happen with the mixed-reality headset market and the Apple Vision product line's place in it. The $7,500 (today's dollars) Macintosh starting price wasn't going to be the long-term pricing norm just as the $3,499 VP starting price isn't going to be the long-term pricing norm.

What you either aren’t acknowledging or aren’t realizing is that prices for VR hardware have already come down. The HTC Vive launched at $800 in 2016 or $1015 in 2024 dollars. The Oculus Rift debuted that same year at $600 ($760 in 2023 dollars). Now you can get a Quest 3 for $500. VR headsets are affordable today to wide swaths of people.

 

[lovehateapple]

What are you calling a ton of people? With tax you're looking at almost $4000. I'd expect a lot of returns after the SB but the main attraction of the Super Bowl is Super Bowl parts parties, hanging with friends, eating food and everybody watching the game together and high fiving or booing. You'd be pretty secluded off from your buddies wearing an AVP, even with the fake eyes

I bet the main buyers are the rich, social media tech people/influencers, rappers(I already know one will show up at an award show wearing one on the red carpet, probably Kayne Kanye) and then the buy anything Apple no matter what crowd.

*edited to fix some, not all typos

A ton is 2,000 lbs so therefore a ton of people would be on average around 10 people. All kidding aside, my statement also came with the caveat that people would have to know how great the viewing experience of the AVP is before the Super Bowl, which obviously isn't going to be the case.

I truly believe it's only a matter of time before enough people get to see the immersive quality of the 3D and the "like being there" feeling that broadcasters will make live sports, concerts, and other events available for the AVP. When that happens we might see living rooms full of people each with their own headset watching the game together and with the pass through capability not be so disconnected from their families and friends.

 

[djphat2000]

Looks like the buyers for this super expensive computer showed up......
As expected

 

[ninethirty]

It means something. Just not what you imply. What it means is that the market believes the VisionPro is not the magic bullet to solve Apple's $3 trillion market saturation. That is the short term meaning. What remains to be seen is how this expensive toy evolves to become a consumer product. Apple has priced it for the enterprise sector, where the company has repeatedly failed to gain traction, and is relegated to a back seat to Microsoft, IBM and others. Newton didn't do it. VisionPro won't either. Apple is a consumer company, and should realize that, focus on it like a laser beam, and leverage it for maximum profitably.

Enterprise? Good god, this is some take.

 

[lpfnrobin]

It means something. Just not what you imply. What it means is that the market believes the VisionPro is not the magic bullet to solve Apple's $3 trillion market saturation. That is the short term meaning. What remains to be seen is how this expensive toy evolves to become a consumer product. Apple has priced it for the enterprise sector, where the company has repeatedly failed to gain traction, and is relegated to a back seat to Microsoft, IBM and others. Newton didn't do it. VisionPro won't either. Apple is a consumer company, and should realize that, focus on it like a laser beam, and leverage it for maximum profitably.

If it helps install missing bolts its a win for the "Enterprise" - also these consumer devices sometimes yield big advantages for developer/creative freedom to said institutions... I'd give it a chance as it might help augment solution paths with new approaches previously undiscovered.

 

[Surf Monkey]

It's priced too high for what you think it is and what value you think you can derive from it. Other people might find they get well over $4000 worth of value from it. Value is subjective.

There are people who don't work for Apple who are going to make a lot of money from it. Maybe they'll develop an app that sells for $10 to $100,000. That's $1,000,000, less fees to Apple. Let's just say that after other expenses, it's $500,000. That's not a bad return on a $3,500 product. Technically, you don't even need to own one to do that, although it's a good idea to have one to test.

Again, value is subjective. Some people will buy it and almost never use it. Others will buy it and use it a lot. Others will buy it and then turn around and sell it after a while. Other people will buy it and use it to make money or memories or whatever. People can figure out things to do with it.

I'm interested in it for educational reasons. It would be extremely useful for one of my university courses to help students learn the material.

Asking your students to shell out nearly $4,000 is going to help them? Sure. Whatever.

 

[Bauer24]

Asking your students to shell out nearly $4,000 is going to help them? Sure. Whatever.

Why would each student need to buy one?

Students don't currently need to buy their own fume hoods, or mass spec machines.

 

[Surf Monkey]

The presumption that technology will never advance to that point is ludicrous, especially given the history of technology, especially computing technology. I attended the 1964 New York World's Fair. AT&T demonstrated a state-of-the-art computer that could beat or tie you at Tic-Tac-Toe. It had 10,000 vacuum tubes, had no storage, was three stories tall, used as much electricity as a small town and required a team of techs to change the constantly failing tubes.

Now you want to tell me that miniaturizing the tech in the VisionPro to the size of eyeglasses is impossible. To put it bluntly, you're wrong. I may not live to see it, but it's inevitable.

I’m not wrong.

Approaching the Limit: The Challenge of Miniaturizing Logic Gates in Electronics

Smaller electronics need smaller logic gates. But how small can we go? The answer lies in the nanoscale, where innovation meets its limits.

medium.com

Technology’s Progress to Make Things Smaller

Miniaturization accompanied the computing revolution of the 20th and 21st centuries. What needed a room then can fit on a finger tip today.

www.21stcentech.com

And

The biggest lie tech people tell themselves — and the rest of us

They see facial recognition, smart diapers, and surveillance devices as inevitable evolutions. They’re not.

www.vox.com

Human societies go through periods of advancement and periods of retraction.

 

[Surf Monkey]

Why would each student need to buy one?

Students don't currently need to buy their own fume hoods, or mass spec machines.

So, asking your institution to shell out the cash for a dozen or so of them is going to “help” them?

 

[ocnitsa]

Personally, I'll wait...first gen is always more expensive and has issues. I don't judge anyone who has the disposable income to buy, though...it would be fun.

But, people who are saying this is a solution searching for a problem...I don't get that. Cars were a solution searching for a problem...horse and carts were fine ways to get around. This point relates to ONE element of the features of vision pro...that you can create bigger virtual screens for TV or computing or your apps than most of us can in real life unless we buy a whole bunch of other stuff (TVs, monitors, etc. which are not mobile).

Is the ability to watch a movie on my sofa on a giant virtual screen a "problem"? I guess so...if I want that enough or get that much value from the experience...but it's not one personally for me that will entice me to buy right now at that price point and for first gen.

I'm sure that there are already a host of other features related to vision pro that I'm ignoring when I focus on this one aspect of it in order to engage with people making that argument regarding a solution searching for a problem. There will also be new features and use cases that develop over time, increasing value.

I'll probably be ready to pull the trigger when they upgrade the M2, which I reckon will be around Gen 3.