M4 Macs Are Expected to Launch in This Order Starting Later This Year

[Fuzzball84]

Gurman also said the Mac Mini M3 was a “sure thing“

It would make sense but I think there are still issues of alignment between the release of models and the processors available.

Now that they have complete control and a supposedly better manufacturing partner, you'd have thought all of this would be aligned perfectly.

But manufacturing issues, technical design issues and the big drive for AI in upcoming models has probably scuppered any alignment for a couple more years at least.

 

[Fuzzball84]

I have a feeling the AI aspect is what might make them drop support for all intel models on the upcoming MacOS major update.

Despite Intel models being sold as recently as last year...

And Im sure it will be read between the lines at meetings that this is a way to make M1 users upgrade too. M1 was too good... AI has given them a get out of jail card on selling more Macs

 

[Chuckeee]

Take it with truck load of salt. He just keeps the discussion going.

Granted a truck load of something. I’m not sure salt is the right commodity.

 

[Zapski]

Given that they just released a M3 24” iMac in November, and it was two years earlier they released the M1, I highly doubt they’ll release an M4 iMac this year

 

[TechnoMonk]

I have a feeling the AI aspect is what might make them drop support for all intel models on the upcoming MacOS major update.

Despite Intel models being sold as recently as last year...

And Im sure it will be read between the lines at meetings that this is a way to make M1 users upgrade too. M1 was too good... AI has given them a get out of jail card on selling more Macs

They don’t have to drop support for Intel Macs. AI magically doesn’t make Intel Macs redundant. Apple will stick to their official support policy or they will face legal issues.

 

[Fuzzball84]

I still find it hard to believe Apple will announce M4 later this year when prior M-series chips averaged 16 months between announcements.

M1 was announced November 10, 2020
M2 was announced June 6, 2022
M3 was announced October 30, 2023

Their latest refreshes have not exactly been regular... considering the reasons they gave for dropping intel.

I think manufacturing and other technical issues have put a spanner in the works... and catching up on AI has become a big thing for Apple.. I suspect they want to launch a super charged AI focused SoC asap in order to enhance sales across the board.

Their focus on restricting AI processes locally have really made this more urgent, if not essential.

The only downside is that the M1 to M3 that are still amazing SoC... may become handicapped in AI focused OS updates.

Not everyone will need all this AI... but if its baked hard into the OS... well it will be a way for Apple to cut support for older M series processors... that are otherwise more than powerful enough for everything else.

 

[Fuzzball84]

They don’t have to drop support for Intel Macs. AI magically doesn’t make Intel Macs redundant. Apple will stick to their official support policy or they will face legal issues.

I sure hope so... I still have an Intel Mac that runs spectacular... even compared to an M2 I have...

I just have this... feeling it might get dropped sooner than I was expecting.

 

[JitteryJimmy]

I believe it! Gurman knows how to guess sensibly based on Apple's historic practice, unlike other analysts who guess based on random whims.

 

[Realityck]

So we really believe this Gurman Mac release schedule is going to so much more accurate than his series of iPad release dates?

You might convince me of the sequence (their order) but his schedule is just hand waving

I just remember the timeline of when Mark Gurman first brought up the 15" MBA around Jan 2021 as I recall, then there were multiple rumors more recently over several months of it coming, then finally it was announced WWDC 2023 (June). The rumors were also leaning towards product having M3 that early, but it arrived as a 15" M2 MBA. October 30th 2023, the first M3 Macs arrived.

That example shows how far off course some predictions can be. (time, SoC involved)

 

[atonaldenim]

Glad this report clears the air a bit. All it's really saying is M4 will get released the way M3 did, maybe just accelerating the cadence just a tiny bit. M3 Max MBP came out 9.5 months after M2 Max MBP. M2 Max was supposedly delayed, so a roughly 12 month cadence seems like what they have been targeting already and will continue to do so with M4, if all goes well.

There’s no way the Mac Studio waits until 2025 to get refreshed. So we’ll surely get M3 Max / Ultra desktop Macs around WWDC 2024. Mac Studio for sure get updated as usual, and I’d wager Mac Pro will as well because why not. Doesn’t seem too hard to release another low-effort Studio in a Pro case.

Here's my count of release dates and cadences and ETAs for M3 Ultra and M4 generation based on past cycles. Gurman's estimates fit in the established pattern pretty well.

Apple Silicon Mac Generations​

Generation	Base SoC	Pro / Max	Ultra
M1 date available in stores	11/10/2020	10/18/2021	3/18/2022
M2 date available in stores	7/8/2022	1/24/2023	6/13/2023
M3 date available in stores	11/7/2023	11/7/2023	maybe April-June '24?
M1 — M2	~20 months	~15 months	~15 months
M2 — M3	~16 months	~9.5 months	?
M3 ? ETA if 10 months	May '23	Nov '23	April '24
M3 ? ETA if 15 months	October '23	April '24	September '24
M4 ? ETA if 10 months	September '24	September '24	maybe April '25 (assuming June '24 M3 Ultra)
M4 Mark Gurman's ETA ~12-14 months cadence	Nov-Dec '24	Dec-Feb '25	June-August '25
M4 ? ETA if 15 months	February '25	February '25	maybe September '25 (assuming June '24 M3 Ultra)

 

[DavidSchaub]

It would make sense but I think there are still issues of alignment between the release of models and the processors available.

Now that they have complete control and a supposedly better manufacturing partner, you'd have thought all of this would be aligned perfectly.

But manufacturing issues, technical design issues and the big drive for AI in upcoming models has probably scuppered any alignment for a couple more years at least.

How do we know that this alignment isn't what Apple wants (other than the M2 Mac Pro, which is obviously not what Apple wanted)?

 

[DavidSchaub]

There’s no way the Mac Studio waits until 2025 to get refreshed. So we’ll surely get M3 Max / Ultra desktop Macs around WWDC 2024. Mac Studio for sure get updated as usual, and I’d wager Mac Pro will as well because why not. Doesn’t seem too hard to release another low-effort Studio in a Pro case.

If Apple has shown nothing else over the years: Apple has no problem not releasing new Macs if they don't feel it is worth it.

I entirely believe that the Mac Studio and Mac Pro *might* not get updated this year. It's a Pro device, people will get them if they need them.

Apple has shown multiple times that they're fine with desktop Macs being on a ~2 year cadence. While Apple might stop doing that and release desktop Macs faster, I don't see why they would bother.

 

[Fuzzball84]

How do we know that this alignment isn't what Apple wants (other than the M2 Mac Pro, which is obviously not what Apple wanted)?

Because its a mess.. but I have to be honest they often have things a mess... from engineering fails (butterfly), to nomenclature of software and hardware versions, to odd accessory choices (cables, ports, keyboards).

A company loves a clockwork schedule (it avoids costly delays etc)... but also, in terms of customers... a bit of unpredictability can be useful too.

 

[DavidSchaub]

Because its a mess.. but I have to be honest they often have things a mess... from engineering fails (butterfly), to nomenclature of software and hardware versions, to odd accessory choices (cables, ports, keyboards).

A company loves a clockwork schedule (it avoids costly delays etc)... but also, in terms of customers... a bit of unpredictability can be useful too.

the 2016 MBPs chassis was absolutely a mess, but it is also gone.

Apple loves a clockwork schedule for the iPhone, because it matters the most, and Apple kinda likes their OSs to be clockwork, but Apple has never consistently shipped other hardware on a clockwork yearly cycle.

"A Mac is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."

 

[Chazak]

This is making me think I should skip the M3 MBA I had thought I would get this coming fall and hold off for March 2025. I am thinking the performance leap from M3 to M4 will be much larger than it was for M2 to M3.

 

[ric22]

I've never understood why this matters it anyone.

If you need the scaling of the pro chips, who cares what what the consumer chips are doing.

This FOMO for the consumer line just confuses me.

I don't need the CPU power for personal use, and own an M1 Mac for that. If I was wanted a step up, for whatever reason, I'd be annoyed at paying 70% extra and still just getting a $40 tablet chip and the same pitiful RAM. The screen isn't worth 70% extra...

 

[Fuzzball84]

the 2016 MBPs chassis was absolutely a mess, but it is also gone.

Apple loves a clockwork schedule for the iPhone, because it matters the most, and Apple kinda likes their OSs to be clockwork, but Apple has never consistently shipped other hardware on a clockwork yearly cycle.

"A Mac is never late, nor is it early, it arrives precisely when it means to."

Yeah, they seem to really prioritise the iPhone and software... also Apple Watch.

They are big sellers... and I think Apple Watch has been a massive success and a new source of income since iPhone plateaued. They probably make more on Apple Watch accessories than on any other device. 😂

 

[atonaldenim]

If Apple has shown nothing else over the years: Apple has no problem not releasing new Macs if they don't feel it is worth it.

I entirely believe that the Mac Studio and Mac Pro *might* not get updated this year. It's a Pro device, people will get them if they need them.

Apple has shown multiple times that they're fine with desktop Macs being on a ~2 year cadence. While Apple might stop doing that and release desktop Macs faster, I don't see why they would bother.

The Trash Can Mac Pro did languish in its thermal corner, and the stopgap iMac Pro didn’t get an update. But the report also says Apple is working on a better Mac Pro due to customer complaints. So if they do care about addressing complaints of Ultra buyers, I really can’t see them continuing to piss those same folks off by skipping M3 Ultra in 2024.

Glad the report also does say M3 Ultra Studio is being worked on. As far as an M3 Mac Pro, I could see that going either way as an M3 Ultra Pro with similar constraints to the M2 Ultra Pro probably would not sell very well.

 

[Fuzzball84]

This is making me think I should skip the M3 MBA I had thought I would get this coming fall and hold off for March 2025. I am thinking the performance leap from M3 to M4 will be much larger than it was for M# to M3.

Only for AI I'd say... the other aspects of the SoC are just not going to see the gains that we say going from intel to AS.

 

[Whats-a-computer?]

Why even bother release the iPad Pro with M3 just a few months before M4 releases? I think the current iPad Pro is fast enough so that we could wait for M4.

 

[ric22]

That doesnt make sense at all..

The higher end Macs are designed more for multi core enabled processes that a regular user of the lower end devices would rarely, if ever, utilise.

You don't buy a Mac Pros for superior single core performance... and in any case, for single core performance the differences are negligible between regular and pro models.

Your hand on the mouse/trackpad would be more of a bottleneck than the single core performance. 😂

The single core differences non-existent, essentially. It's just weird when the cheaper products have the more modern tech, and faster single core speeds, which contrary to your opinion do matter in all kinds of general tasks.

I think Apple got it right the M3 when M3 and M3 Pro got released at once.

Why bother having a fan and using a chip an iPad can handle? 😅 At least give the fan something to do...

 

[DavidSchaub]

Why even bother release the iPad Pro with M3 just a few months before M4 releases? I think the current iPad Pro is fast enough so that we could wait for M4.

Because the M4 iPad might not come out until 2026?

 

[Whats-a-computer?]

Because the M4 iPad might not come out until 2026?

Well yeah, but they should just skip M3 for iPad Pro and go with M4 this fall.

 

[Fuzzball84]

The single core differences non-existent, essentially. It's just weird when the cheaper products have the more modern tech, and faster single core speeds, which contrary to your opinion do matter in all kinds of general tasks.

I think Apple got it right the M3 when M3 and M3 Pro got released at once.

Why bother having a fan and using a chip an iPad can handle? 😅 At least give the fan something to do...

But you just buy what does the job... it doesnt matter if a cheaper product has more "modern" tech.

This seems to be a version of keeping up with the joneses.

Say you buy a Mac Pro that can process your data in 30 minutes and the Mac, at the time, can do it in 60.
Then a newer Mac comes out and can process it in 40. Your original Mac Pro is still the best tool for the job. Even if it's running on "older" SoC.

You seem to be far too concerned about a cheaper product having more "modern" tech. Rather than just focusing on what each device can do.

 

[sw1tcher]

I think manufacturing and other technical issues have put a spanner in the works... and catching up on AI has become a big thing for Apple.. I suspect they want to launch a super charged AI focused SoC asap in order to enhance sales across the board.

The M3 is an AI SoC. That's what makes the MacBook Air the "world’s best consumer laptop for AI".

Apple unveils the new 13- and 15-inch MacBook Air with the powerful M3 chip

Apple today announced the new MacBook Air with the powerful M3 chip, taking its power-efficient performance and portability to a new level.

www.apple.com

Apple today announced the new MacBook Air with the powerful M3 chip, taking its incredible combination of power-efficient performance and portability to a new level. With M3, MacBook Air is up to 60 percent faster than the model with the M1 chip and up to 13x faster than the fastest Intel-based MacBook Air.1 And with a faster and more efficient Neural Engine in M3, MacBook Air continues to be the world’s best consumer laptop for AI.

With the transition to Apple silicon, every Mac is a great platform for AI.