On the one hand, he’s right that China are bullies, but no one is going to come out of a trade war well and it will really hurt a lot of people in the US for a long time.
A trade war is not the way to go.
But Trump is confrontational. He’s clearly done well in his life bullying people and getting them to back down and that’s what he thinks he has to do now. China play a long game and they don’t really care about the people that much so they will sit it out until it hurts everyone else.
We can see we are on the verge of a global recession and if your customers have less money to buy then that hits you and that is what is going to happen. Europe is suffering too and we buy a lot from the US.
Plus, they own so many dollars that you can’t push them too far because the only thing stopping them destroying the US economy is the amount of their own savings they will lose.
This is why he says they are currency manipulators. The Chinese originally bought dollars as a security and now every time the dollar is weaker, they lose their savings so they prop it up.
It is manipulation but no one wants to be poorer.
If they are going to lose anyway then what have they got to lose? They can do an awful lot of damage if they really start to sell.
Trump cut taxes so it follows that the economy has taken off- it always does.
But it benefits the rich not the poor and eventually when the bills need to be settled, the pendulum swings the other way and the economy takes a nose dive (but he probably won’t be in office then so he can blame the other guy. I think he will win a second term though).
What you can see is the debt is spiralling again and that will need to be paid some day too. Debt makes the country poorer long-term.
Manufacturing is down and that’s the real loser in a trade war but the other question you have to ask about manufacturing is, What sort of manufacturing do you want?
Do you really still want the sort of manufacturing they do in China, producing massive quantities of polution, no unions, no health care, no safety standards? I don’t think people want that any more.
We all want cheap products but we want clean rivers and cities so we might complain about it but we are all happy to export the filth and the short life expectancy and the child labour over there.
But all those things cost if you want clean manufacturing.
Wasn’t it GM that found their pensions plans cost more per car than it cost the Japanese to make a car? You can’t compete on those differences. It’s just impossible
And back in 95 if I recall correctly when Texas instruments still had plants in Austin, Mexico and Ireland, I did a study on comparitive costs and the components coming out of China were 1/200th of the ones in Texas (I’m not up to date on this and haven’t looked since so have no idea what the situation is today).
We in the West need alternative so low-wage, low skill, high pollution manufacturing. We simply can’t compete with that.
We might talk about manufacturing more in the West be really we are only talking about assembling in the West.
We still need them to take all the crap out of the heavy metals and send us the clean stuff, and make the transistors, diodes and circuits cheaply because no one wants a $200,000 computer.
And we still want to send them mountains of old computers to recycle so we feel we are saving the planet, where they heat them over naked fires holding them with their bare feet and die in their 40s.
Do we want that here and are we prepared to pay the cost of doing it properly over here?
We might shout at them now but we’ve used them too and seen a lot of benefit from it.
And some people might want a trade war but we still need them to do that.
We are inextricably linked now. We need to get along as every time we hurt them, we are also going to hurt ourselves more and we need them.
Protect your intellectual property for sure. Keep your ideas in California and San Diego and create skilled jobs because we don’t want, and can’t compete, with the the dirty ones.
And that way they buy from us and we buy from them and we are all better off.
David Ricardo got it right and it’s still true today: comparative advantage.